Summary: A veil of high clouds based above 20,000 feet continues to stream over northern and central California. It certainly helped last night as just about all frost stations were in the mid 30s as of 6:00am. Model information this Christmas Eve shows the high will remain anchored off shore with a westerly flow riding over the top of the high. A little weak disturbance will move through northern California tonight with what little energy it has moving into the Great Basin. Another similar ripple of low pressure will follow on Christmas night, meaning we will have cloud cover to one degree or another possibly all the way through Christmas night.
Dew points remain in the low to mid 30s, allowing only a few patches of fog to form nights and mornings.
Beyond Christmas night, models show a strong ridge strengthening along the west coast and moving somewhat farther towards the east. This will lock in the inversion above the valley floor, meaning we will have mild afternoons for the time of year but chilly nights as clear skies again allow strong radiational cooling.
Models for the first of the year are show a weak system moving into northern California right around New Year’s Eve and Day, but even so, the precipitation will stay to our north. The new two week model shows a flatter version of high pressure off shore, extending inland into California, keeping the storm track to our north. But, at least it’s not the big blocking ridge we’ve been accustomed to this month.
Forecast: Variable high clouds through Christmas night. mostly clear Tuesday with occasional high clouds and patchy fog in the mornings, through New Year’s Eve.
Short Term:
| Madera 57/35/61/35/63 | Reedley 58/34/59/35/63 | Dinuba 58/33/60/33/62 | |
| Porterville 59/35/61/35/64 | Lindsay 58/34/60/34/64 | Delano 60/35/61/36/64 | |
| Bakersfield 61/40/61/41/65 | Arvin 61/36/62/37/65 | Taft 60/41/62/41/63 | |
| Lamont 60/36/61/36/64 | Pixley 59/35/61/34/63 | Tulare 57/34/59/34/62 | |
| Woodlake 58/35/61/34/64 | Hanford 59/35/61/35/63 | Orosi 59/34/61/34/63 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Mostly clear 29/63 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 31/63 |
Friday
Mostly clear 32/66 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 34/64 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 39/64 |
Two Week Outlook: December 30 through January 5: This model indicates a ridge of upper level high pressure will be off shore and over the western states with daytime temperatures reaching above average values. Overnight lows may still chill to below average. The chance of precipitation during this period appears quite low.
January: Overall during January this season, temperatures should range somewhat above average. This model also shows equal chances of near average precipitation over the northern half of the state but below average precip over the southern half of California. We remain between these two It forecasts, so hopefully precipitation will be near seasonal levels.
January, February, March: This model is not hopeful for above average precipitation, or even average precipitation. Overall, upper level high pressure is projected to be the most dominant feature for the next three months, resulting in average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Wednesday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next seven to ten days.
Frost: We are receiving a Christmas gift courtesy of Mother Nature who is sending us variable amounts of high clouds based above 20,000 feet. The cloud cover overnight was dense enough to keep most locations in the mid 30s and I anticipate similar conditions tonight.
Satellite imagery is showing a broad expanse of high clouds stretching from well out over the ocean then riding a westerly flow aloft into northern and central California.
Tonight, a weak ripple of low pressure will glide through the region with no weather outside of cloud cover. For Christmas night it appears a similar system will move through with what little energy it has moving into the Great Basin.
Beginning Wednesday morning, skies will be generally clear, allowing the radiational cooling process to set up again. For now, I’ll go with upper 20s and lower 30s by Wednesday morning and the next few mornings after that. Fortunately, the medium range outlook going out through the first week of January is showing either a west or northwest flow, preempting any chance of an Arctic blast and maintaining safe conditions.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Low to mid 30s.
Humidity, Visalia, 45%/95% Bakersfield, 35%/70%
Actual Humidity December 22, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 98%/36%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 40% tomorrow 30%, Bakersfield: Today 50% tomorrow 30%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days December 22, 2017: Stratford .43, Parlier .38, Blackwell, .47 Lindcove .34, Arvin .46, Orange Cove .42, Porterville .33, Delano .NA., Madera Two .33. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 48, Parlier 49, Blackwell 52, Lindcove, 53, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 47, Porterville 49, Delano NA, Madera Two 50
Mean Temperatures for December. Month So Far: 46.2 +1.2
Record Temperatures: 68/18. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 713, -227 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: .41 season. or -2.44. Month to Date: .04
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: .07, or -1.55, Month to Date: .04
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 382, Parlier, 409, Arvin, 350, Shafter, 462, Stratford, 414, Madera two, 555, Alpaugh, NA, Delano, NA, Lindcove, 386, Porterville, 547. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:09 am Sunset: 4:48 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:38
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 59 / 31 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 57 / 35 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 58 / 32 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 57 / 32 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 56 / 34 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 56 / 32 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1552 / 58 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 57 / 31 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 53 / 38 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.96 23 6.07 148 4.10 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 1.03 30 4.97 143 3.48 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.11 37 4.19 141 2.97 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.41 13 3.97 125 3.17 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.41 14 4.47 153 2.92 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.41 17 2.52 102 2.46 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.07 4 1.93 117 1.65 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.16 12 0.35 26 1.34 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.78 23 4.00 119 3.35 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.27 9 3.68 121 3.03 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.12 4 4.76 140 3.40 13.95
Next Report: Saturday, December 24/pm