December 26, 2017
Summary: There were two layers of cloud cover streaming overhead during the night. one was based at 15,000 feet and the second was at 18,000 feet. These clouds did an excellent job of keeping temperatures in the 30s overnight. The coldest location I could find was 30 at McFarland. That will not be the case tonight as skies are already clearing from Fresno County north. These clouds will shift into southern California this afternoon, leaving generally clear skies tonight to resume our chilly overnight temperature regime.
On the flip side of that building high will be mild afternoons for the time of year with readings generally in the low to mid 60s.
Forecast models all agree this high will be over California for the remainder of the week. Models vary on solutions for the New Year’s Day time frame. One model shows a weak low moving on shore possibly resulting in light showers. The European model shows a stronger low moving into California with a greater potential for rain. It will be interesting to watch modeling for the remainder of the week to see if this pattern does break our mini drought.
Forecast: Clearing today. Mostly clear tonight and on through New Year’s Eve with a few patches of night and morning fog and possibly some high clouds a times. For now, we’ll go with variable cloudiness for New Year’s Day and next Tuesday.
Short Term:
Madera 62/29/63/29/62 | Reedley 62/28/63/28/61 | Dinuba 61/28/62/28/60 | |
Porterville 64/29/63/29/62 | Lindsay 63/27/62/28/62 | Delano 64/29/63/30/62 | |
Bakersfield 63/35/63/35/62 | Arvin 65/30/62/30/63 | Taft 65/38/65/39/64 | |
Lamont 65/29/63/29/63 | Pixley 63/28/62/28/62 | Tulare 64/28/63/29/62 | |
Woodlake 63/29/62/29/62 | Hanford 63/29/62/29/62 | Orosi 63/28/63/29/63 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Friday
Mostly clear 30/63 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 31/63 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 30/65 |
Monday
Variable clouds 39/65 |
Tuesday
Variable clouds 38/65 |
Two Week Outlook: January 1 through January 7: This model indicates a ridge of upper level high pressure will be off shore and over the western states with daytime temperatures reaching above average values. Overnight lows may still chill to below average. The chance of precipitation during this period appears quite low.
January: Overall during January this season, temperatures should range somewhat above average. This model also shows equal chances of near average precipitation over the northern half of the state but below average precip over the southern half of California. We remain between these two It forecasts, so hopefully precipitation will be near seasonal levels.
January, February, March: This model is not hopeful for above average precipitation, or even average precipitation. Overall, upper level high pressure is projected to be the most dominant feature for the next three months, resulting in average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday.
Rain: Nothing but dry weather for the remainder of the week. Beginning New Year’s Eve, models diverge somewhat. Two actually show a Pacific disturbance moving in from the west which, theoretically, would actually bring some rain to central California. It will be interesting to see how these models change as we move through the week. For now, I’ll keep the forecast dry until a trend begins to develop.
Frost: We enjoyed a considerable amount of cloudiness overnight which maintained temperatures at most locations in the mid to upper 30s. the coldest station I could find was McFarland at 30 degrees. The cloud cover we enjoyed is already beginning to clear from the northwest as weak upper air disturbance will move into southern California this afternoon. Kern County will be the last to clear. The bottom line is we will have generally clear skies tonight with the presumption of strong radiational cooling due to the dry air mass in the lower level of the atmosphere.
Dew points should range in the mid 30s to possibly near 40 this afternoon, which is up slightly from recent days. For now it appears coldest overnight lows tonight will dip down to 27-28 with unprotected low lying spots possibly down to 26 or so.
The little disturbance moving through did not break up the inversion as illustrated by mountain locations. At 3,000 to 4,000 feet, temperatures are in the upper 40s to lower 50s. the inversion tonight will be decent with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 4 to 7 degrees warmer at most locations.
For the remainder of the week, through at least possibly New Year’s Eve, we will observe mostly clear skies with strong radiational cooling with lows dipping down into the upper 20s at colder locations each night with mild afternoons with reading generally in the low to mid 60s. So, as you can see there is a wide gap between daytime highs and overnight lows.
Even though models differ on the pattern for the first few days of the new year, some do show a low pressure system moving in from the west. If this occurs, a New Year’s Eve present would be above freezing conditions with even a small chance of rain.
Lows Tonight:
Terra Bella
27 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
28 |
Strathmore
27 |
McFarland
28 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
28 |
Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
29 |
Madera
29 |
Belridge
28 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
29 |
Orosi
27 |
Orange Cove
28 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
25 |
Root Creek
27 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmine
28 |
Arvin
29 |
Lamont
28 |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
32 |
Edison
30 |
Maricopa
28 |
Holland Creek
30 |
Tivy Valley
27 |
Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
28 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid 30s to near 40. Low to mid 30s
Humidity, Visalia, 45%/95% Bakersfield, 35%/75%
Actual Humidity December 24, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 96%/42%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 40% tomorrow 30%, Bakersfield: Today 50% tomorrow 30%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days December 24, 2017: Stratford .39, Parlier .36, Blackwell, .42 Lindcove .34, Arvin .43, Orange Cove .43, Porterville .32, Delano .NA., Madera Two .32. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 48, Parlier 48, Blackwell 51, Lindcove, 53, Arvin, 50, Orange Cove 47, Porterville 48, Delano NA, Madera Two 50
Mean Temperatures for December. Month So Far: 46.3 +1.3
Record Temperatures: 70/20. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 733, -228 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: .41 season. or -2.51. Month to Date: .04
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: .07, or -1.58, Month to Date: .04
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 398, Parlier, 423, Arvin, 367, Shafter, 479, Stratford, 429, Madera two, 571, Alpaugh, NA, Delano, NA, Lindcove, 402, Porterville, 563. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:10 am Sunset: 4:49 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:38
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 58 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 56 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 59 / 33 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DHM / M / M / M /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 58 / 36 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 56 / 33 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1556 / 59 / 36 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 58 / 31 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1555 / 55 / 37 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.96 23 6.07 142 4.26 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 1.03 28 4.97 137 3.63 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.11 36 4.19 136 3.09 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.41 12 3.97 120 3.31 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.41 13 4.47 146 3.06 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.41 16 2.52 97 2.61 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.07 4 2.12 123 1.73 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.16 11 0.36 26 1.40 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.78 22 4.00 115 3.49 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.27 8 3.68 116 3.18 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.12 3 4.77 134 3.56 13.95
Next Report: Tuesday, December 26/pm