December 29, 2017
Summary: Strong upper level high pressure is centered over southern California this afternoon with a ridge extending northward into southern Oregon. The main storm track continues to ride over the top of the high and into Washington state and northern Oregon. There is plenty of warm air above us as you have to go up to 13,600 feet to find the freezing level. This is pretty impressive for this time of year. Most locations north of Kern County are moving into the lower 60s while Bakersfield is already at 65. That’s a good indication that daytime warming will continue to occur through the weekend.
Beginning Sunday, more and more mid and high level clouds will begin to spread in from the west as a low pressure system several hundred miles off shore slowly approaches the coast. The trend of the high breaking down on projections and a trough of low pressure taking its place is still in place for Wednesday and Thursday of next week with a possibility of rain during that time frame. For now, this does not appear to be a generous rain maker, but any precipitation would certainly be welcome.
After Wednesday and Thursday, there’s a great deal of uncertainty in the pattern. One model shows a warm system moving towards the southern California about the 12 and 13 while others have varying solutions. They all have one thing in common and that is that the persistent high pressure system will no longer be there, which is a big improvement.
Forecast: Mostly clear and hazy conditions with occasional high clouds and a few shallow patches of fog late nights and early mornings through Saturday. Becoming partly cloudy Saturday night through Monday. Variable cloudiness Tuesday eventually leading to a chance of rain late Tuesday night through Thursday morning. Partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 31/64/34/66 | Reedley 30/65/34/67 | Dinuba 29/65/33/67 | |
| Porterville 29/65/33/68 | Lindsay 30/64/34/67 | Delano 31/66/35/68 | |
| Bakersfield 38/68/40/70 | Arvin 33/67/33/69 | Taft 42/67/43/70 | |
| Lamont 30/67/35/69 | Pixley 29/65/34/68 | Tulare 29/65/34/66 | |
| Woodlake 30/65/34/67 | Hanford 31/65/35/68 | Orosi 29/65/34/67 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Monday with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Models are still pointing in the direction of the high slowly breaking down, a factor that has dominated our weather for so long. By late Tuesday night or Wednesday, a mild low pressure system will be approaching from the west. On paper, this doesn’t look like a generous rain maker, but more of the light showers variety. The chance of precipitation for now extends through Thursday morning. Beyond that, models are inconclusive, but they do indicate the pattern of a blocking ridge along the west coast will no longer be there, giving us a chance at more rain later.
Frost Information: Temperatures this afternoon are roughly the same north of Kern County but are five degrees warmer in parts of Kern County. Dew points all the way up and down the line have now crept up into the upper 30s and lower 40s, meaning there’s marginally more moisture in the air. Even so, with only occasional high clouds and generally clear skies, strong radiational cooling will…you guessed it…again occur tonight. Most locations will chill to 30 to 33 degrees with the traditionally colder spots down to 28 to 29 or so and hillsides will be above freezing.
The inversion tonight will be excellent with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 5 to 8 degrees warmer at most locations.
Sunday morning will be a bit more challenging to forecast around as models are indicating more cloud cover will be creeping in from the west. This means many locations could actually be in the mid to upper 30s with coldest locations in the low 30s.
With a bit of luck, we should be observing increasing amounts of mid and high level clouds Monday and Tuesday. Theoretically this should hold temperatures above freezing. If all goes as planned, Wednesday and Thursday mornings could see a low pressure system pushing inland with a chance of at least light rain. This will move temperatures into the mid 40s to the lower 50s with a mild, westerly flow behind the system keeping temperatures well above freezing.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
29 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
29 |
Mcfarland
29 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
28 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
30 |
| Arvin
33 |
Lamont
29 |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
33 |
Maricopa
30 |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
30 |
Next Report: Saturday, December 30