Updates
  • Out/pneumonia Pardon the interruption again, folks. John had been coughing more and more frequently lately. Difficult breathing yesterday resulted in an ambulance ride to the local…
  • May 8, 2024 report May 8, 2024 Summary  High pressure aloft is  located 500 miles off the northern California coast. Low pressure is centered over Wyoming and the Dakotas…
  • May 6, 2024 report May 6, 2024 Summary  An elongated trough of low pressure extends from the Gulf of Alaska to the Pacific Northwest while high pressure is setting…
  • May 4, 2024 report May 4, 2024 Summary  A low pressure center is off the coast of the Pacific Northwest this morning. This low will move southwestward into northern…
  • May 2, 2024 report May 2, 2024 Summary  upper level high pressure is upwelling ahead of a low pressure system located in the northeast Pacific. This will drive temperatures…
Forecast

December 29, 2017/report

­­

December 29, 2017

Summary: Another chilly early morning.  Low temperatures throughout the citrus belts are generally 30 to 33 with a few locations in the upper 20s.  Kern County is a bit milder with most temperatures in the mid 30s.

 

Strong upper level  high pressure has shifted to the east and essentially is right over central and southern California.  This will drive afternoon temperatures even higher with mid to upper 60s likely, especially Saturday and Sunday. This should have the tendency to marginally drag up overnight lows with colder locations still at or below freezing.

 

More and more cloud cover will move in during the late part of the weekend and early next week.  By Tuesday, models are showing a breakdown of this incredibly persistent high that has kept us dry for so long.  There are wide variances in the timing and movement of a possible low trekking in from the west.  Models suggest everything from Tuesday night to early Thursday, but the bottom line is that there does seem to be a trend developing here in the high breaking down and Pacific storms moving back into California.

 

Some current models suggest a system moving through Wednesday with a second possible system Friday night or Saturday.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear through Sunday with a few patches of late night and early morning fog and occasional high clouds.  Expect continued hazy conditions.  Partly cloudy Monday and Monday night.  increasing cloudiness Tuesday leading to a slight chance of showers Tuesday night with a better chance of showers Wednesday through Thursday.  Partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 63/31/65/31/65 Reedley 64/30/65/30/66 Dinuba 64/29/65/30/66
Porterville 65/30/65/30/67 Lindsay 64/30/65/31/66 Delano 64/31/65/32/67
Bakersfield 65/38/67/39/69 Arvin 66/35/68/36/70 Taft 66/41/68/42/69
Lamont 66/31/68/32/69 Pixley 65/30/68/31/68 Tulare 63/29/65/30/66
Woodlake 64/30/65/31/67 Hanford 64/31/65/32/67 Orosi 64/30/65/31/67

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Partly cloudy

37/65

Tuesday

Increasing clouds

42/63

Wednesday

Chance of showers

44/63

Thursday

Chance of showers

48/64

Friday

Partly cloudy

45/63

 

Two Week Outlook:  January 5 through January 11:  This model is showing a more favorable pattern for wet weather returning to central California as the blocking high has vanished.  Currently, it appears Pacific storms will be of a mild nature so temperatures are likely to remain above seasonal average.

 

January:  Overall during January this season, temperatures should range somewhat above average.  This model also shows equal chances of near average precipitation over the northern half of the state but below average precip over the southern half of California.  We remain between these two It forecasts, so hopefully precipitation will be near seasonal levels.

 

January, February, March:  This model is not hopeful for above average precipitation, or even average precipitation.  Overall, upper level high pressure is projected to be the most dominant feature for the next three months, resulting in average temperatures.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Monday.

 

Rain:  There is definitely a trend on projections for the middle of next week.  The persistent dome of high pressure is shown being replaced by a trough of low pressure along the west coast.  The best chance of rain appears to be Wednesday and Thursday, though timing ranges from Tuesday night to early Thursday.  The bottom line, though, is that there is a pattern change coming that may bring at least light precipitation to the valley and, more importantly, to the mountains.

 

Another low shows up about Friday night and Saturday of next week with the possibility of showers beginning about Friday night or Saturday.

 

Frost:  Most locations as of 6:00am were in the 30 to 33 degree range with coldest locations in the upper 20s.  In Kern County, some locations are in the mid 30s with low 30s in colder locations.

 

The high which has been just off shore is now centered over southern and central California.  This will drive daytime highs up even further and, with some luck, this should tug overnight lows up a few degrees also.

 

For Saturday and Sunday mornings I look for generally low to mid 30s with the coldest locations dipping into the upper 20s.  during the late part of the weekend and early next week, models are showing more and more cloud cover.  With some luck, this may drag most locations above freezing by Monday morning.

 

Clouds will begin increasing Tuesday ahead of a low pressure system approaching from the west.  There does seem to be a trend which would result in an increasing chance of rain at mid week and possibly again late Friday or Saturday.  These systems are originating in the mid Pacific.  The result would be mild temperatures with overnight lows zooming up into the upper 40s at most locations with mild conditions through next weekend.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

30

Porterville

31

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

30

Strathmore

29

McFarland

30

Ducor

31

Tea Pot Dome

30

Lindsay

30

Exeter

29

Famoso

32

Madera

31

Belridge

30

Delano

32

North Bakersfield

32

Orosi

30

Orange Cove

30

Lindcove

29

Lindcove Hillside

AF

Sanger River Bottom

27

Root Creek

29

Venice Hill

30

Rosedale

33

Jasmine

31

Arvin

AF

Lamont

31

Plainview

30

Mettler

AF

Edison

AF

Maricopa

32

Holland Creek

AF

Tivy Valley

30

Kite Road South

AF

Kite Road North

30

AF=Above Freezing                

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid 30s to near 40. Mid to upper 30s.

Humidity, Visalia, 55%/100%  Bakersfield, 40%/80%

Actual Humidity December 26, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 92%/30%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 80%, Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 90%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days December 26, 2017: Stratford .34, Parlier .30, Blackwell, .35 Lindcove .29, Arvin .36, Orange Cove .35, Porterville .27, Delano .NA., Madera Two .29.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 48, Parlier 48, Blackwell 50, Lindcove, 52, Arvin, 49, Orange Cove 46, Porterville 48, Delano NA, Madera Two 50

 

Mean Temperatures for December. Month So Far: 46.3 +1.6

Record Temperatures: 72/23. Average Temperatures: 53/35

Heating Degree Days this Season: 785, -239 Courtesy of the NWS

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since October 1, 2017  Fresno: .41 season. or -2.72.  Month to Date: .04

Since October 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  .07, or -1.70,  Month to Date: .04

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 431, Parlier, 461, Arvin, 408, Shafter, 522, Stratford, 468, Madera two, 615, Alpaugh, NA, Lindcove, 443, Porterville, 607.  Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 7:11 am  Sunset: 4:50 pm. Hours of Daylight:  9:38

 

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  63 /  32 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  62 /  36 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  64 /  31 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  63 /  30 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  62 /  38 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  62 /  34 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1556 /  65 /  34 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  64 /  33 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1552 /  59 /  42 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  64 /  36 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                                                       Season     %        Last y.   %           Ave.       Annual Ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    0.96    21    6.07   135     4.50    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    1.03    27    4.97   129     3.86    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    1.11    34    4.19   127     3.30    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.41    12    3.97   112     3.53    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.41    13    4.47   137     3.26    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.41    14    2.52    88     2.87    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.07     4    2.12   115     1.85     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.16    11    0.36    24     1.51     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.78    21    4.00   108     3.70    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.27     8    3.68   108     3.42    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.12     3    4.77   126     3.80    13.95

 

Next Report: Friday, December 29/pm