December 30, 2017
Summary: Even with a veil of high clouds overhead overnight, temperatures still chilled into the upper 20s and lower 30s at many locations, that’s as of 6:00am. Upper level high pressure remains overhead with a considerable amount of high clouds running over the top of the high and into California. Satellite imagery indicates a broader area of high clouds is located several hundred miles to our west. These clouds should begin to reach central California later this afternoon and tonight.
In the meantime, a developing low is roughly a thousand miles west of the central coast and is slowly making progress towards the east. Model information, however, maintains high pressure over California and the Desert Southwest through at least Tuesday. Unfortunately, the latest models indicate that when this system finally does move on shore, most of the energy will move into northern California with central California stuck with the weaker sector. That would put most, if not all, of the rain from Fresno County north. It would also push the timing back to around Thursday or Friday.
All is not lost, however, as medium range models show a low of a subtropical nature approaching the southern California coast with a possible pineapple connection. This model has shown this solution for two days now. For now, I’ll take it with a grain of salt and just call for a minimal chance of showers late next week.
Forecast: A mix of high clouds and sunshine through Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night through Wednesday night. mostly cloudy Thursday and Friday with a chance of showers, mainly from Fresno County northward. A chance of showers Friday night and Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 64/31/66/33/66 | Reedley 65/29/68/32/66 | Dinuba 63/29/68/33/65 | |
| Porterville 65/29/68/33/66 | Lindsay 65/30/67/34/67 | Delano 66/31/68/35/67 | |
| Bakersfield 66/40/69/40/67 | Arvin 67/33/70/36/67 | Taft 66/42/69/43/67 | |
| Lamont 66/30/68/35/67 | Pixley 65/30/68/34/66 | Tulare 63/29/66/33/65 | |
| Woodlake 64/29/68/33/64 | Hanford 65/30/67/33/66 | Orosi 64/29/68/33/65 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Partly cloudy 35/67 |
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy 46/68 |
Thursday
Slight chance of showers 48/66 |
Friday
Chance of showers 50/67 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 51/66 |
Two Week Outlook: January 5 through January 11: This model is showing a more favorable pattern for wet weather returning to central California as the blocking high has vanished. Currently, it appears Pacific storms will be of a mild nature so temperatures are likely to remain above seasonal average.
January: Overall during January this season, temperatures should range somewhat above average. This model also shows equal chances of near average precipitation over the northern half of the state but below average precip over the southern half of California. We remain between these two It forecasts, so hopefully precipitation will be near seasonal levels.
January, February, March: This model is not hopeful for above average precipitation, or even average precipitation. Overall, upper level high pressure is projected to be the most dominant feature for the next three months, resulting in average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday.
Rain: Rain, at least through Wednesday night, appears very unlikely. The latest forecast models show a low pressure system moving on shore, but unfortunately most of the energy is shown moving into northern California with only a minimal chance of light showers Thursday night and Friday. another low will move inland Saturday. This system could possibly bring precipitation farther south, but right now I’d have to say it’s a toss of the dice. The good news is models continue to show high pressure remaining to our south which would favor storms moving inland through northern and central California. One model is showing a subtropical low developing and moving through southern California about the 6 or 7. There are various rain solutions in the longer term, but at least it’s considerably more favorable for rain than it has been over the past five weeks.
Frost: In spite of high clouds streaming overhead from the west overnight, strong radiational cooling occurred. Most locations were in the upper 20s and lower 30s as of 6:00am. Satellite imagery is showing a more substantial area of high clouds about 300 miles off shore which will be moving into central and southern California tonight through Sunday. It remains to be seen whether these clouds thin out as they approach the coast. They may be dense enough to modify temperatures.
I see two possible solutions for tonight. The first possibility is the clouds will move overhead, slowing the radiational cooling process. This could allow many locations to remain above freezing. The second possibility is that the clouds will be too thin to make much of a difference,, thus temperatures would again be in the upper 20s to the lower 30s.
For this forecast, I’ll lean towards the colder scenario as the same air mass is locked in place.
The inversion tonight will continue to be good with temperatures at 34 feet from 5 to 8 degrees warmer.
For New Year’s Day through Wednesday, cloud cover will be the key as we will observe a low slowly approaching the coast. However, it really won’t move inland until late Thursday or even Friday, so it will be a day to day challenge to figure out the degree of cloud cover and its effect on overnight lows.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
29 |
Mcfarland
28 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
31 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
31 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
30 |
| Arvin
33 |
Lamont
30 |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
32 |
Maricopa
29 |
Holland Creek
34 |
Tivy Valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Mid 30s to the lower 40s.
Humidity, Visalia, 45%/95% Bakersfield, 35%/75%
Actual Humidity December 28, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 96%/39%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 70% tomorrow 50%, Bakersfield: Today 70% tomorrow 50%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days December 28, 2017: Stratford .36, Parlier .31, Blackwell, .39 Lindcove .32, Arvin .38, Orange Cove .36, Porterville .30, Delano .NA., Madera Two .31. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 48, Parlier 49, Blackwell 50, Lindcove, 52, Arvin, 49, Orange Cove 46, Porterville 48, Delano NA, Madera Two 49
Mean Temperatures for December. Month So Far: 46.4 +1.7
Record Temperatures: 69/24. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 819, -247 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: .41 season. or -2.85. Month to Date: .04
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: .07, or -1.78, Month to Date: .04
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 459, Parlier, 486, Arvin, 434, Shafter, 550, Stratford, 494, Madera two, 644, Alpaugh, NA, Lindcove, 473, Porterville, 636. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:11 am Sunset: 4:52 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:40
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 64 / 34 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 63 / 36 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 65 / 31 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 64 / 28 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 66 / 36 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 63 / 31 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1552 / 69 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 66 / 31 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1555 / 62 / 42 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 35 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.96 21 6.07 133 4.58 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 1.03 26 4.97 126 3.93 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.11 33 4.19 124 3.37 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.41 11 3.97 110 3.60 12.02
FRESNO T 0.41 12 4.47 134 3.33 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.41 14 2.52 85 2.96 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.07 4 2.12 113 1.88 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.16 10 0.36 23 1.55 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.78 21 4.00 106 3.77 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.27 8 3.68 105 3.49 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.12 3 4.77 123 3.89 13.95
Next Report: Saturday, December 30/pm