Updates
  • Out/pneumonia Pardon the interruption again, folks. John had been coughing more and more frequently lately. Difficult breathing yesterday resulted in an ambulance ride to the local…
  • May 8, 2024 report May 8, 2024 Summary  High pressure aloft is  located 500 miles off the northern California coast. Low pressure is centered over Wyoming and the Dakotas…
  • May 6, 2024 report May 6, 2024 Summary  An elongated trough of low pressure extends from the Gulf of Alaska to the Pacific Northwest while high pressure is setting…
  • May 4, 2024 report May 4, 2024 Summary  A low pressure center is off the coast of the Pacific Northwest this morning. This low will move southwestward into northern…
  • May 2, 2024 report May 2, 2024 Summary  upper level high pressure is upwelling ahead of a low pressure system located in the northeast Pacific. This will drive temperatures…
Forecast

December 31, 2017/pm report

December 31, 2017

Summary: We remain under the influence of strong upper level high pressure.  High clouds continue to overrun the high.  Satellite imagery this afternoon is showing a gap in the cloud cover. That gap will move inland overnight, so at least part of the night will be generally clear.

 

That will change on New Year’s Day as a southwesterly flow aloft begins to move heavier cloud cover into central and southern California.  By Wednesday, a weakening low will move into northern and, to a lesser extent, central California.  Models have been pretty consistent with this system the past few days as they show most of the dynamics moving into northern California.

 

If models are correct, precipitation amounts will be light to possibly nonexistent south of Fresno County.  The threat of precipitation over the Sierras is much higher due to lift.

 

The overall trend is in the right direction.  The blocking ridge of high pressure is not showing up on any model for at least the next week and a half or so.  Some of these models continue to indicate a subtropical low will move into central and southern California for a greater shot at rain.  Even as we look at next week, the storm door will remain open so any storminess that’s out there will be greeted with open arms.  Even the two week outlook favors above average precipitation.

 

Forecast: Becoming mostly clear for a time tonight.  Variable high clouds will again overspread the valley late tonight and New Year’s Day.  Variable cloudiness Monday night through Tuesday night.  mostly cloudy Wednesday and Wednesday night with a chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno northward.  Partly cloudy Thursday through Friday leading to another chance of rain Saturday through Sunday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 32/64/37/64 Reedley 31/65/35/65 Dinuba 30/64/34/64
Porterville 31/65/35/65 Lindsay 30/64/36/65 Delano 33/65/37/65
Bakersfield 38/66/41/67 Arvin 35/65/38/67 Taft 43/66/45/67
Lamont 31/65/38/67 Pixley 30/64/35/65 Tulare 30/63/36/64
Woodlake 30/64/35/65 Hanford 31/64/37/65 Orosi 30/64/36/65

 

Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Wednesday with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain: It will remain dry at least through Tuesday night.  models have been pretty consistent the past few days in showing a subtropical system moving into northern California Wednesday and Wednesday night.  only the weak sector of this storm will move through central California with a chance of light showers from mainly Fresno County northward into early Thursday.  It appears most of Thursday and Friday will  be dry, however models are showing another subtropical low moving into southern California.  On paper, it could spread precipitation in from the southwest.  Both of these systems are warm in nature, so very high snow levels are expected.

 

Frost Information: Temperatures are 2 to 5 degrees warmer this afternoon than yesterday at this time.  Dew points are relatively the same.  Again tonight, the key will be cloud cover as satellite imagery indicates there’s a wide clear area that will move in late this afternoon and tonight.  Barring any cloud development, this will allow for good radiational cooling.  Temperatures could easily chill into the low to mid 30s with even some upper 20s in the usual cold locales.

 

It will be a race between a large mass of cloud cover approaching from the southwest and the clear skies we’ll observe for at least the first half of the night.  if these clouds begin to overspread central California sometime late tonight, most, if not all, locations will be above freezing.

 

Beginning Tuesday, all locations will be above freezing and will stay that way through the rest of the week as more and more cloud cover becomes apparent Monday night through Tuesday night.  there is a small chance of rain, mainly north of Fresno, Wednesday and Wednesday night, but even if there’s no precipitation, milder and more moist air will invade the area.  This will bring dew points up.

 

During this period, temperatures will likely range in the 40s to the lower 50s overnight if a subtropical low moves in Saturday and Sunday.

 

Looking ahead to next week, models do not show a pattern which would be conducive for a colder air mass, so it appears we will enjoy clear sailing as far as frost is concerned for the foreseeable future once we get beyond tonight.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

30

Porterville

31

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

30

Strathmore

30

McFarland

30

Ducor

32

Tea Pot Dome

31

Lindsay

30

Exeter

30

Famoso

32

Madera

32

Belridge

31

Delano

32

North Bakersfield

33

Orosi

30

Orange Cove

31

Lindcove

30

Lindcove Hillside

AF

Sanger River Bottom

28

Root Creek

30

Venice Hill

31

Rosedale

33

Jasmine

31

Arvin

AF

Lamont

30

Plainview

30

Mettler

AF

Edison

AF

Maricopa

31

Holland Creek

AF

Tivy Valley

30

Kite Road South

AF

Kite Road North

31

 

Next Report: Monday morning, January 1