December 31, 2017
Summary: We remain under the influence of strong upper level high pressure. High clouds continue to overrun the high. Satellite imagery this afternoon is showing a gap in the cloud cover. That gap will move inland overnight, so at least part of the night will be generally clear.
That will change on New Year’s Day as a southwesterly flow aloft begins to move heavier cloud cover into central and southern California. By Wednesday, a weakening low will move into northern and, to a lesser extent, central California. Models have been pretty consistent with this system the past few days as they show most of the dynamics moving into northern California.
If models are correct, precipitation amounts will be light to possibly nonexistent south of Fresno County. The threat of precipitation over the Sierras is much higher due to lift.
The overall trend is in the right direction. The blocking ridge of high pressure is not showing up on any model for at least the next week and a half or so. Some of these models continue to indicate a subtropical low will move into central and southern California for a greater shot at rain. Even as we look at next week, the storm door will remain open so any storminess that’s out there will be greeted with open arms. Even the two week outlook favors above average precipitation.
Forecast: Becoming mostly clear for a time tonight. Variable high clouds will again overspread the valley late tonight and New Year’s Day. Variable cloudiness Monday night through Tuesday night. mostly cloudy Wednesday and Wednesday night with a chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno northward. Partly cloudy Thursday through Friday leading to another chance of rain Saturday through Sunday.
Short Term:
Madera 32/64/37/64 | Reedley 31/65/35/65 | Dinuba 30/64/34/64 | |
Porterville 31/65/35/65 | Lindsay 30/64/36/65 | Delano 33/65/37/65 | |
Bakersfield 38/66/41/67 | Arvin 35/65/38/67 | Taft 43/66/45/67 | |
Lamont 31/65/38/67 | Pixley 30/64/35/65 | Tulare 30/63/36/64 | |
Woodlake 30/64/35/65 | Hanford 31/64/37/65 | Orosi 30/64/36/65 |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Wednesday with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: It will remain dry at least through Tuesday night. models have been pretty consistent the past few days in showing a subtropical system moving into northern California Wednesday and Wednesday night. only the weak sector of this storm will move through central California with a chance of light showers from mainly Fresno County northward into early Thursday. It appears most of Thursday and Friday will be dry, however models are showing another subtropical low moving into southern California. On paper, it could spread precipitation in from the southwest. Both of these systems are warm in nature, so very high snow levels are expected.
Frost Information: Temperatures are 2 to 5 degrees warmer this afternoon than yesterday at this time. Dew points are relatively the same. Again tonight, the key will be cloud cover as satellite imagery indicates there’s a wide clear area that will move in late this afternoon and tonight. Barring any cloud development, this will allow for good radiational cooling. Temperatures could easily chill into the low to mid 30s with even some upper 20s in the usual cold locales.
It will be a race between a large mass of cloud cover approaching from the southwest and the clear skies we’ll observe for at least the first half of the night. if these clouds begin to overspread central California sometime late tonight, most, if not all, locations will be above freezing.
Beginning Tuesday, all locations will be above freezing and will stay that way through the rest of the week as more and more cloud cover becomes apparent Monday night through Tuesday night. there is a small chance of rain, mainly north of Fresno, Wednesday and Wednesday night, but even if there’s no precipitation, milder and more moist air will invade the area. This will bring dew points up.
During this period, temperatures will likely range in the 40s to the lower 50s overnight if a subtropical low moves in Saturday and Sunday.
Looking ahead to next week, models do not show a pattern which would be conducive for a colder air mass, so it appears we will enjoy clear sailing as far as frost is concerned for the foreseeable future once we get beyond tonight.
Lows Tonight:
Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
30 |
Strathmore
30 |
McFarland
30 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
32 |
Belridge
31 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
30 |
Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
31 |
Arvin
AF |
Lamont
30 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
AF |
Edison
AF |
Maricopa
31 |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
30 |
Kite Road South
AF |
Kite Road North
31 |
Next Report: Monday morning, January 1