January 2, 2018
Summary: Variable amounts of mid and high level clouds of a subtropical nature are streaming in from the southwest from a tropical low which is far to the southwest of California. There is another low pressure system located about 500 miles west of the central coast. It will begin to spread light rain over northern California with a reasonable chance of light showers in the valley. As a general rule, the further north you go, the greater the possibility of actually seeing raindrops.
This low has abundant subtropical moisture but weak dynamics so precipitation amounts will be light. From Wednesday night through Thursday, most locations should receive a tenth of an inch or less with some locations in the south valley possibly remaining dry. For now it looks like dry conditions will prevail Thursday night and Friday but a new system, also subtropical, will begin to spread showers over central California Saturday into Sunday. Again, the dynamics of this system are not impressive, but rain is rain so we’ll take it.
A new, somewhat colder low may arrive about Monday. It’s unclear how strong this system will be and the timing may be off, but by and large early next week will be our third chance of receiving rain.
At least a couple of models show another low pressure system moving inland about Wednesday or Thursday of next week. Models suggest this may be a more significant system for our best chance of a decent rain event. Due to the subtropical nature of the first two storms, snow levels will be at or above 8,000 feet.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness through tonight. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday with an increasing chance of light showers Wednesday night and Thursday, mainly north of Kern County. Partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday. increasing cloudiness Friday night with a chance of rain Saturday and Saturday night with a slight chance of showers Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night with an increasing chance of rain Monday and Tuesday.
Short Term:
Madera 65/36/66/43/69 Reedley 66/37/66/41/68 Dinuba 65/35/65/43/68
Porterville 67/35/66/42/68 Lindsay 67/36/67/43/68 Delano 67/37/67/44/69
Bakersfield 68/40/69/45/70 Arvin 68/37/66/44/71 Taft 67/45/66/47/69
Lamont 68/36/68/44/71 Pixley 67/36/67/43/70 Tulare 65/35/66/42/67
Woodlake 66/35/66/43/68 Hanford 65/37/65/43/69 Orosi 66/37/66/43/68
Seven Day Forecast:
Friday
Partly cloudy
48/66 Saturday
Chance of rain
51/61 Sunday
Slight chance of showers
42/61 Monday
Chance of rain
41/62 Tuesday
Chance of rain
40/65
Two Week Outlook: January 9 through January 15: This model is showing a more favorable pattern for wet weather returning to central California as the blocking high has vanished. Currently, it appears Pacific storms will be of a mild nature so temperatures are likely to remain above seasonal average.
January: Overall during January this season, temperatures should range somewhat above average. This model also shows equal chances of near average precipitation over the northern half of the state but below average precip over the southern half of California. We remain between these two It forecasts, so hopefully precipitation will be near seasonal levels.
January, February, March: This model is not hopeful for above average precipitation, or even average precipitation. Overall, upper level high pressure is projected to be the most dominant feature for the next three months, resulting in average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday.
Rain: It still appears that we will have a decent chance of light showers Wednesday night and Thursday, mainly north of Kern County. Precipitation amounts will likely be at or below .10 of an inch with some locations, especially in Kern County, possibly recording nothing at all
System number two is also subtropical and will arrive Saturday with an increasing chance of light rain. The dynamics of this system appear weak, so for now it does not look like a significant rain event will occur.
Storm number three will give us another shot at rain early next week, probably Monday or Tuesday. Yet a fourth system may spread rain over the area about Wednesday or Thursday of next week.
Even the two week model is strongly suggesting above average precipitation during this time frame.
Frost: All locations will be above 32, not only tonight but each night for the remainder of the week.
Short term, abundant mid and high level clouds will stream in from the southwest then weather systems will move on shore, one Wednesday night and Thursday, another one Saturday and Saturday night and, if all goes as planned, two more next week.
Lows Tonight: All locations will be above freezing.
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Low to mid 40s.
Humidity, Visalia, 50%/95% Bakersfield, 40%/80%
Actual Humidity December 31, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 90%/28%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 20% tomorrow 20%, Bakersfield: Today 20% tomorrow 20%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days December 31, 2017: Stratford .39, Parlier .33, Blackwell, .45 Lindcove .35, Arvin .43, Orange Cove .39, Porterville .34, Delano .NA., Madera Two .35. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 48, Parlier 50, Blackwell 51, Lindcove, 53, Arvin, 50, Orange Cove 47, Porterville 49, Delano NA, Madera Two 50
Mean Temperatures for December. Month So Far: 46.6 +2.1
Record Temperatures: 69/21. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 867, -265 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: .41 season. or -3.06. Month to Date: .00
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: .07, or -1.89, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 496, Parlier, 526, Arvin, 469, Shafter, 591, Stratford, 534, Madera two, 689, Alpaugh, NA, Lindcove, 516, Porterville, 678. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:12 am Sunset: 4:54 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:41
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 64 / 32 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 63 / 37 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 64 / 33 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 64 / 34 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 64 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 62 / 33 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1553 / 63 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 64 / 33 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1556 / 62 / 45 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.96 20 6.16 128 4.81 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 1.03 25 5.03 121 4.16 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.11 31 4.23 117 3.62 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.41 11 4.07 106 3.85 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.41 12 4.56 128 3.55 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.41 13 2.87 89 3.23 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.07 4 3.03 152 2.00 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.16 10 0.36 22 1.67 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.78 20 4.01 101 3.99 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.27 7 3.68 98 3.75 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.12 3 4.80 116 4.14 13.95
Next Report: Tuesday, January 2/pm