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Forecast

January 8, 2018/report

January 8, 2018

Summary: Generally light rain is widespread over the entire valley this morning.  The heaviest precipitation amount I could find was .19 at the Fresno Air Terminal.  Other locations were between .05 and .10.  Heavy precipitation is falling up and down the Sierra Nevada, however the freezing level both at Oakland and Vandenberg is above 11,000 feet, so only the highest peaks of the Sierra Nevada are experiencing snow at this time.

 

A strong subtropical low is moving northeastward with a rich flow of moisture moving from the southwest to the northeast over central and parts of southern California.  This flow will continue today through the late evening hours so as the low approaches, locally heavy amounts are possible.  Rain will continue through the early morning hours Tuesday as a cold front moves through.

 

Storm number two is much colder and will lower snow levels down to about 5,000 feet later Tuesday and Tuesday night.

 

The second element of this complex system is wind.  There’s a chance that winds may exceed 60 MPH in places like the bottom of the Grapevine and along areas where the Tehachapi Mountains meet the valley.

 

Strong gusty winds will also begin tonight along the west side with gusts to near 45 MPH anticipated with locally stronger gusts. By late Tuesday morning, the cold front will be moving quickly southeastward.  The air behind this front is cold and unstable so showers will continue Tuesday into Tuesday night.  I still believe there’s at least a small chance of isolated thunderstorms from late Tuesday morning through the early evening hours.  The active weather will rapidly taper off late Tuesday night with dry weather Wednesday, but with lots of residual cloud cover along the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada and the north facing slopes of the Tehachapis.  These clouds may last through Thursday morning in parts of the south valley.

 

Upper level high pressure will build in from the west late Wednesday and beyond.  The main weather challenge will be increasing amounts of night and morning fog.  We may enter a full fledged fog regime which could turn into a cool wet air mass, creating a wet overcast with sometimes just limited afternoon clearing.

 

From Thursday and beyond, expect dry weather for the remainder of the week and well into next week as well.

 

Forecast: Rain today, locally heavy this afternoon.  Rain tonight, locally heavy at times.  Expect rain, locally heavy at times in the morning, Tuesday, turning showery during the afternoon with a chance of isolated thunderstorms.  Thunderstorms would be accompanied by brief heavy rain and hail.  Showers Tuesday night before midnight, tapering off.  Mostly to partly cloudy Wednesday lasting into Thursday morning in the south valley.  Expect increasing amounts of night and morning fog Friday through Monday, possibly lifting into a gray overcast with partial afternoon clearing.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 62/55/60/43/59 Reedley 61/54/60/44/60 Dinuba 61/54/60/42/59
Porterville 63/56/60/43/59 Lindsay 64/55/63/41/60 Delano 64/56/60/45/61
Bakersfield 68/57/63/48/60 Arvin 69/56/64/44/61 Taft 68/57/63/48/61
Lamont 68/56/63/43/61 Pixley 63/55/61/42/60 Tulare 61/54/60/41/60
Woodlake 62/56/60/42/61 Hanford 62/55/59/42/60 Orosi 63/54/61/42/60

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Thursday

AM fog/PM sun

43/59

Friday

AM fog/PM sun

42/62

Saturday

Widespread fog/local pm clearing

44/61

Sunday

Widespread fog/local PM clearing

43/58

Monday

Widespread fog/partial afternoon clearing

42/56

 

Two Week Outlook:  January 15 through January 21:  This model indicates well above average temperatures will continue.  It also indicates that there is a better than even chance of rain for northern and possibly central California.

 

January:  Overall during January this season, temperatures should range somewhat above average.  This model also shows equal chances of near average precipitation over the northern half of the state but below average precip over the southern half of California.  We remain between these two It forecasts, so hopefully precipitation will be near seasonal levels.

 

January, February, March:  This model is not hopeful for above average precipitation, or even average precipitation.  Overall, upper level high pressure is projected to be the most dominant feature for the next three months, resulting in average temperatures.

 

Winds: Winds will be generally less than 15 MPH today.  Winds late this afternoon through early Tuesday can be expected out of the southeast with potential gusts to 45 MPH or more along the west side, especially along the Interstate 5 corridor.  Winds elsewhere from north of Kern County will be out of the southeast at 15 to 25 MPH,  In Kern County, winds will be out of the south to southeast at 20 to 35 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH over the northern portion of the county.  In the extreme south, winds between 35 and 50 MPH are possible with local gusts to 70 MPH near the bottom of the Grapevine and locally elsewhere along the lip of the Tehachapi Mountains.

 

Winds by Tuesday afternoon will switch and become out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, decreasing to 10 to 15 MPH Tuesday night with generally light winds Wednesday through Friday.

 

Rain: Mainly light rain is falling over the entire valley this morning.  The heaviest I could find as of 6:00 am was ,19 over Fresno.  Most other areas were between .05 and .10.  radar and satellite imagery show deep tropical moisture moving southwest to northeast right into California.  Rain will become locally heavy this afternoon and tonight into early Tuesday.  Later Tuesday morning and through early evening, the rain will break off into showers and possible isolated thunderstorms.  Any thunderstorms that do occur will be accompanied by small hail and localized heavy rain.  Showers will continue Tuesday night, but will end by sunrise Wednesday.  Dry weather will begin Wednesday and last at least a week to possibly ten days.

 

Potential rainfall amounts could b e up to an inch of precipitation along the east side, mainly north of Kern County.  On the west side, a good half inch or more is possible, and with this very rich flow, even Kern County may pick up as much as a half an inch.

 

Frost:  All locations will be above freezing for the next seven to ten days and possibly longer.

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 50s.  Mid 50s the low to mid 20s late Monday afternoon Upper 50s today.  Mid 20s to the lower 30s tonight.  Low to mid 30s late Tuesday through Thursday.

Humidity, Visalia, 80%/90%  Bakersfield, 25%/95%

Actual Humidity January 6, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 97%/70%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 0% tomorrow 20%, Bakersfield: Today 0% tomorrow 10%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days January 6, 2018: Stratford .30, Parlier .28, Blackwell, .36 Lindcove .31, Arvin .42, Orange Cove .34, Porterville .27, Delano .NA., Madera Two 27.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 53, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 49, Porterville 52, Delano NA, Madera Two 52

7.2

Record Temperatures: 70/20. Average Temperatures: 53/35

Heating Degree Days this Season: 933, -325 Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for January so far, 53.8+9.8

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since October 1, 2017  Fresno: .48 season. or -3.42.  Month to Date: .07

Since October 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  .07, or -2.12,  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 525, Parlier, 560, Arvin, 497, Shafter, 627, Stratford, 568, Madera two, 753, Alpaugh, NA, Lindcove, 546, Porterville, 717.  Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 7:12 am  Sunset:5:00 pm. Hours of Daylight:  9:47

 

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  65 /  44 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  66 /  49 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  67 /  51 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  66 /  47 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  68 /  56 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1500 /  55 /  50 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1552 /  68 /  52 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  69 /  54 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1600 /  63 /  55 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:                                                       Season     %        Last y.   %           Ave.       Annual Ave.

BISHOP                        0.00    0.16     9    1.32    71     1.87     5.18

SALINAS                       0.04    1.11    25    5.70   130     4.38    12.83

STOCKTON                      0.17    1.42    27    7.31   140     5.22    14.06

MODESTO                       0.22    1.55    34    5.70   126     4.54    13.11

MERCED                        0.14    1.49    36    5.12   123     4.16    12.50

MADERA                        0.05    0.60    14    4.61   105     4.39    12.02

FRESNO                           T    0.48    12    5.20   133     3.90    11.50

HANFORD                       0.01    0.81    22    3.16    85     3.71    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                      T    0.07     3    3.29   150     2.19     6.47

 

 

 

Next Report: Monday, January 8/pm