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Forecast

January 13, 2018/pm report

January 13, 2018

Summary: Satellite imagery this afternoon indicates there is no clearing whatsoever anywhere in the valley with the exception of a few miles east of the coastal range, but that’s about it.  I do not anticipate any clearing this afternoon at most, if not all, locations.  Temperatures are only in the upper 40s at most locations, hardly a degree or two over this morning’s lows.  I have seen situations in past fog regimes where daytime highs are overnight lows are the exact same temperature and I’ve seen many events with just a degree or two of difference.

 

The National Weather Service found an inversion based at 1,200 feet which means only the lower foothills are dealing with dense fog.  Many locations in the foothills over the next few days will rise into the lower 70s while many valley locations will struggle to reach the lower 50s.

 

Strong upper level high pressure remains over the extreme eastern Pacific Ocean and along the  west coast, absolutely capping the valley.  This high will hold on through Monday then will give way to a fairly weak system that will move through Tuesday and Tuesday night.  the chance of showers is not looking half bad at this time as most of the models are showing the southern portion of the low as being a bit stronger than previous models had indicated.

 

Wednesday and Thursday will be dry as a weak ridge moves through.  Clouds will begin to increase Thursday night ahead of the next weather system which this time will be  moving out of the Gulf of Alaska.  Models this afternoon don’t indicate this will be a particularly wet system, however the mountain areas may do pretty well with snow perhaps down to 3,000 to 4,000 feet.  There’s also some indication there may be another system affecting us about Tuesday of the following week.  Could be January won’t be so dry, after all!

 

Forecast: Low overcast and fog through Monday with partial afternoon clearing, but only if you’re lucky.  Daytime highs and overnight lows will be close to the same.  Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night with showers likely Tuesday and possibly Tuesday night.  mostly to partly cloudy Wednesday.  Partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday with night and morning fog.  Increasing cloudiness Thursday night with a chance of showers later Thursday night through Friday night.  mostly to partly cloudy Saturday and turning colder.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 46/50/48/51 Reedley 47/49/47/50 Dinuba 47/50/47/51
Porterville 48/51/47/50 Lindsay 47/50/47/50 Delano 48/51/47/50
Bakersfield 47/52/48/51 Arvin 46/53/47/52 Taft 50/57/51/58
Lamont 47/51/48/51 Pixley 48/50/47/50 Tulare 46/49/47/49
Woodlake 47/50/47/50 Hanford 47/49/47/50 Orosi 46/49/47/50

 

Winds: Winds will be less than 10 MPH through Monday with extended periods of near calm conditions.  Winds Monday night and Tuesday will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH.

 

Rain: dry weather will continue through Monday night.  our chance for showers is still very much in the forecast for Tuesday and possibly Tuesday night as a fairly weak trough moves through.  Most locations will pick up no more than a tenth or two with lesser amounts in Kern County.  Wednesday through Thursday will be dry then a cold trough of low pressure will move through quickly late Thursday night and Friday.  showers should be widespread with this system although all indications are that it doesn’t carry much moisture.  Dry weather will return for Saturday through Monday but medium range models are picking up on another shot at some cold rain about Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

 

Frost Information: I haven’t really changed my mind much over the past 36 hours or so of the possibility of at least localized below freezing temperatures for next Saturday, but more likely Sunday and Monday mornings.  A cold weather system will move through Thursday night and Friday, ushering in a colder air mass.  The configuration on paper is by no means a freeze situation, but rather one which could lower temperatures down into the upper 20s to lower 30s.  however, if abundant cloud cover and/or fog settles in behind this system, then conditions will be above freezing.

 

Lows Tonight:

All locations will be above freezing tonight.

 

Next Report: Sunday morning, January 14