January 15, 2018
Summary: The inversion above the valley floor is breaking up as a weak low pressure system approaches northern California. Most of the low overcast has dissipated, however ground fog has formed from mainly Tulare County northward. The latest observations have visibility down to a quarter mile or less from Visalia northward. Above the ground fog is increasing amounts of higher clouds ahead of a system off the north coast. Precipitation will spread over northern California tonight, possibly spreading light showers into central California from mainly Fresno County northward. This will be a fast moving system so where rain does happen to fall, amounts will be quite light.
A weak ridge of upper level high pressure will fill in behind this system and will govern the pattern from tonight through Wednesday night with dry weather but with areas of night and morning fog developing.
Timing differences are the main factor in the next Pacific storm which will spread precipitation over northern California beginning Thursday and into central California possibly as early as Thursday night but more than likely later Friday into Saturday. This system is much colder and will drop snow levels down to possibly 2,000 to 3,000 feet along the Sierra Nevada and 3,000 to 4,000 feet over the Kern County mountains. Cold air with its origins in the Gulf of Alaska will follow over the weekend with the potential for below freezing conditions in at least some areas Saturday through Sunday mornings. More on this in the frost discussion below.
Also, models continue to trend towards another potentially cold weather system arriving about Monday or Tuesday of next week. The timing and strength of this system are currently up for grabs on models, but at least we’re heading in the right direction. The new two week outlook is out this morning and it continues to indicate a better than average chance of precipitation with below average temperatures, which is something we’ve seen little of this year.
Forecast: Areas of ground fog this morning, otherwise increasing higher clouds today. Mostly cloudy tonight with a chance of light showers from Fresno north. A chance of light showers Tuesday, mainly from Fresno County northward. Partly to mostly cloudy Tuesday night. partly cloudy Wednesday through Thursday with areas of night and morning fog. A chance of rain by late Thursday night with rain becoming likely late Friday night. a small chance of showers Saturday morning then mostly to partly cloudy Saturday afternoon. Partly cloudy Saturday night through Sunday night leading to another chance of rain Monday.
Short Term:
Madera 57/46/61/46/63 | Reedley 57/45/63/46/62 | Dinuba 57/45/62/47/62 | |
Porterville 62/46/64/48/64 | Lindsay 62/45/64/48/64 | Delano 60/47/64/48/64 | |
Bakersfield 61/48/65/48/65 | Arvin 63/46/66/45/66 | Taft 63/51/65/52/65 | |
Lamont 61/45/65/45/65 | Pixley 61/44/64/47/63 | Tulare 58/45/63/47/63 | |
Woodlake 60/45/63/48/63 | Hanford 58/45/63/48/64 | Orosi 60/46/63/48/63 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Thursday
Increasing clouds 45/66 |
Friday
Rain likely 47/56 |
Saturday
AM showers possible 34/53 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 33/58 |
Monday
PM showers possible 34/60 |
Two Week Outlook: January 18 through January 24: This model shows the storm track potentially moving into California from the Gulf of Alaska. At this point, it looks like temperatures will be below average with a reasonable chance of rain.
January: Overall during January this season, temperatures should range somewhat above average. This model also shows equal chances of near average precipitation over the northern half of the state but below average precip over the southern half of California. We remain between these two It forecasts, so hopefully precipitation will be near seasonal levels.
January, February, March: This model is not hopeful for above average precipitation, or even average precipitation. Overall, upper level high pressure is projected to be the most dominant feature for the next three months, resulting in average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be less than 10 MPH through Thursday evening with periods of near calm conditions. Expect breezy conditions late Thursday night and Friday.
Rain: A weak low pressure system will move through northern and central California late tonight and Tuesday morning. The dynamics of the system will be well north of the valley but it may have enough to spread light showers down to about Fresno County with a slight chance further south. This will be a fast mover, so expect dry weather from Tuesday afternoon through at least Thursday. The timing of the next storm, which is stronger and much colder, varies on models from late Thursday night all the way through Friday afternoon for the onset of unsettled weather. for now, my best guesstimate is Friday afternoon through Saturday. This system has a greater potential for dropping substantial amounts of rain on the valley floor with perhaps a foot or two of new snow over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. Models now show the snow level behind the front lowering to 2,000 to 3,000 feet and perhaps 3,000 to 4,000 feet over the Kern County mountains. Dry weather will return by Saturday afternoon through at least Sunday night. there is a trend on model information in another cold system moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California about Monday night or Tuesday.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing through at least Friday morning. A much colder air mass will arrive behind a cold Pacific storm moving southeastward into California Friday into Saturday morning. Currently, low to mid 30s are a good bet Saturday and Sunday with the possibility of upper 20s in the colder locations. There are several weather conditions which may keep temperatures above freezing, such as upslope clouds, wind conditions, and dew points. At any rate, this does not appear to be anywhere near a freeze event, but just an average winter time Alaskan air mass.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity, Visalia, 80%/100% Bakersfield, 75%/95%
Actual Humidity January 13, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 99%/94%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 20% tomorrow 10%, Bakersfield: Today 30% tomorrow 20%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days January 13, 2018: Stratford .21, Parlier .20, Blackwell, .26 Lindcove .23, Arvin .24, Orange Cove .23, Porterville .17, Delano .NA., Madera Two 15. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 56, Blackwell 57, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 57, Delano NA, Madera Two 55
7.2
Record Temperatures: 68/22. Average Temperatures: 54/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1004, -397 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for January so far, 54.2 +10.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.23 season. or -3.18. Month to Date: .82
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: .88, or -1.56, Month to Date: .82
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 536, Parlier, 575, Arvin, 500, Shafter, 632, Stratford, 575, Madera two, 821, Alpaugh, NA, Lindcove, 548, Porterville, 759. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:11 am Sunset: 5:06 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:54
Yesterday’s Weather;
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 56 / 47 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 51 / 47 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 57 / 47 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 54 / 47 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 61 / 47 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 55 / 46 / 0.01 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1546 / 61 / 45 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 57 / 45 / 0.01 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 59 / 44 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.52 59 10.14 171 5.94 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.25 62 8.31 159 5.23 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.99 40 8.42 169 4.98 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.31 25 7.06 137 5.15 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.23 27 8.42 188 4.49 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.68 38 5.04 115 4.40 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.88 35 4.65 188 2.48 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 9 4.06 185 2.20 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 2.13 42 7.60 150 5.06 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.16 44 7.66 156 4.91 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.95 37 8.29 157 5.27 13.95
Next Report: Monday afternoon, January 15