January 16, 2018
Summary: Today is similar to yesterday afternoon as far as where the fog and low clouds have cleared is concerned. From Porterville southward, just high clouds are visible but north of a Tulare/Visalia line, there is a low overcast based at between 200 to 400 feet. Most locations are in the low 50s where the low clouds remain to the mid to upper 50s where variable amounts of higher clouds are dimming the sun. there is a northwest flow around the eastern side of high pressure which is moving in from the eastern Pacific. The higher clouds will begin to shift eastward late tonight, revealing mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy conditions Wednesday through Thursday along with areas of night and morning fog.
Our next Pacific storm will arrive sometime later Thursday night or early Friday. models this afternoon do not look particularly impressive for this system with mainly just light amounts of precipitation with the possible exception of the Sierra Nevada where lift will be prevalent. There will be a chance of showers Friday afternoon into early Saturday as the colder air mass driving southeastward behind the front is somewhat unstable.
Snow levels from this system could drop to 3,000 feet along the Sierra Nevada and about 3,500 to 4,000 feet over the Kern County mountains.
Dry weather will return later Saturday morning and continue through at least Sunday night. the trend continues on models for the next low pressure system to slide southeastward and into northern and central California about Monday night or Tuesday. With a week between now and then, timing issues and the potential strength of this system are up for grabs, but at least the trend is in the right direction.
Forecast: A combination of mid and high level clouds will be prevalent with fog and low clouds on the valley floor through later tonight. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday through Thursday with extensive night and morning fog and low clouds. Increasing cloudiness Thursday night with a chance of rain after midnight. Showers Friday morning with a chance of showers Friday afternoon into early Saturday. Mostly to partly cloudy Saturday through Sunday night with areas of fog and low clouds nights and mornings. Increasing cloudiness Monday with a chance of showers Monday night and Tuesday.
Short Term:
Madera 44/57/44/62 | Reedley 43/57/44/61 | Dinuba 43/57/44/60 | |
Porterville 43/59/45/63 | Lindsay 43/59/45/63 | Delano 44/60/45/64 | |
Bakersfield 46/64/47/67 | Arvin 43/66/46/67 | Taft 48/65/49/67 | |
Lamont 45/64/46/68 | Pixley 43/60/46/63 | Tulare 44/58/45/59 | |
Woodlake 43/57/45/63 | Hanford 43/58/44/62 | Orosi 43/60/44/62 |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Thursday. Winds Thursday night will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts from Fresno County north then will be out of the northwest later Friday at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly along the west side.
Rain: The next chance of rain will arrive sometime after midnight Thursday night and will continue into Friday morning. There will be a chance of showers during the afternoon, lasting into early Saturday. This afternoon’s models are not as impressive as earlier model runs, suggesting a light precipitation event on the valley floor. It would appear a tenth to a quarter of an inch is not out of the realm of possibility from Fresno County north with no more than a tenth or two in the south valley. Dry weather will return Saturday and continue through at least Monday night. a chance of showers shows up again Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Just the fact that this possible event is still a week away means timing and strength of this system are in question. But at least a chance of rain appears pretty nice on paper.
Frost Information: All locations will be above 32 degrees through at least Saturday morning. It looks like the only chance for even local frost will be Sunday morning between one exiting system and before the next system which theoretically will arrive Monday night. even Sunday morning, there is a reasonable possibility of upslope clouds remaining in the southern and eastern segments of the valley, and possibly elsewhere, in which case all locations will be above freezing. I still don’t see anything that would bring threatening weather for the foreseeable future.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Next Report: Wednesday morning, January 17