January 18, 2018
Summary: Yet another morning of fog and/or low overcast, depending upon location. Bakersfield and Porterville, as of last report, were down to ¼ mile visibility, Visalia ¾ of a mile, and Hanford and Fresno were each reporting a low overcast based at around 300 feet. In the meantime, rain is beginning to spread over northwest California ahead of a cold front which will move steadily southeastward then into central California tonight and Friday morning. Light showers could reach Fresno and Madera Counties by sunset, but the greatest probability for rain will be later tonight and for a time Friday morning. This will not be a significant weather event as most locations on the valley floor will only pick up a tenth or two, and that may be optimistic. There will be strong lift along the Sierra Nevada due to a strong westerly flow along the front. With that in mind, a foot of snow may accumulate north of Tulare County with lesser amounts further south.
The cold trough of low pressure will follow with scattered showers Friday afternoon and night. Saturday and Sunday will be dry as a weak ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. Up slope clouds will form against the valley facing slopes of the Kern County mountains and, to a lesser extent, along the Sierra Nevada foothills.
There will be a chance of local frost Saturday and Sunday mornings. This is discussed below.
It now appears less likely that precipitation will affect the valley, especially south of Fresno County, late Sunday night and Monday. It’s possible a few light showers could spread as far south as Fresno County, however I look at this system as pretty much a non event.
Wednesday night and Thursday will see the next chance for rain. Some of the models do indicate there’s a chance of rain for central California. Hopefully, that trend will continue, but that has been the way things have gone recently.
Forecast: Fog and/or low clouds this morning, dissipating this afternoon. Higher clouds will increase this afternoon leading to a slight chance of showers from Fresno north by sunset. Light showers will spread down the valley tonight with light showers Friday morning. A chance of scattered showers Friday afternoon and night. becoming partly to mostly cloudy Saturday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday night and Sunday with increasing cloudiness later Sunday night and a chance of a few light showers from Fresno County north late Sunday night and Monday. Partly cloudy Monday night through Wednesday with areas of morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night and becoming mostly cloudy Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 61/49/57/35/57 | Reedley 62/50/58/36/57 | Dinuba 61/49/57/34/57 | |
| Porterville 63/48/57/34/57 | Lindsay 64/48/58/34/56 | Delano 64/50/58/37/58 | |
| Bakersfield 66/50/58/38/56 | Arvin 67/50/59/38/56 | Taft 66/52/58/40/57 | |
| Lamont 66/49/58/39/57 | Pixley 63/49/57/34/56 | Tulare 61/47/56/35/57 | |
| Woodlake 61/48/58/35/57 | Hanford 61/50/57/34/57 | Orosi 62/48/57/35/56 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
AM fog/partly cloudy 34/57 |
Monday
Slight chance of showers 36/60 |
Tuesday
AM fog/partly cloudy 36/59 |
Wednesday
AM fog/partly cloudy 37/63 |
Thursday
Mostly cloudy 39/60 |
Two Week Outlook: January 25 through January 31: This model now indicates a blocking ridge of upper level high pressure will be over and off the west coast. This pattern would drive the storm track well north. Temperatures would rise to above average values, assuming the fog doesn’t take over, with very little chance of precipitation.
January: Overall during January this season, temperatures should range somewhat above average. This model also shows equal chances of near average precipitation over the northern half of the state but below average precip over the southern half of California. We remain between these two It forecasts, so hopefully precipitation will be near seasonal levels.
January, February, March: This model is not hopeful for above average precipitation, or even average precipitation. Overall, upper level high pressure is projected to be the most dominant feature for the next three months, resulting in average temperatures.
Winds: Winds today will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds for a time tonight will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH then will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH Friday through Friday evening with locally stronger gusts. Winds Friday night will be generally out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH with generally light winds over the weekend.
Rain: A cold front is currently spreading rain into northern California. The frontal system itself is fast moving so there is a slight chance of showers from Fresno County north by sunset. Light showers will spread down the valley tonight with light showers Friday morning. Late Friday morning through Friday night will see a chance of scattered showers as a cold trough of low pressure scoots through. Saturday through Sunday night will be dry. The chance of precipitation for Monday and Monday night appears to be well diminished as models continue to nudge the path of the storm further north. We’ll keep a small chance of light showers in the forecast for Fresno County north for Monday and Monday night with dry weather Tuesday through Wednesday. Models do show a low pressure system moving through northern and central California Thursday for a chance of rain. However, as we’ve discussed, models keep moving these systems further north. Hopefully this will not be the case this time around.
Frost: A fast moving cold front will move down the valley late tonight and early Friday. the air mass with its associated cold trough will move through Friday and Friday night. there is a chance of local frost Saturday morning, but my feeling is wind conditions and upslope clouds will maintain above freezing conditions at most locations. The greatest risk of mainly local frost will be Sunday morning as coldest locations could drop inito the upper 20s to the lower 30s. there may be a good amount of lingering clouds along the east side and in the south valley, but that remains to be seen.
A new storm system will move through northern California Monday. It’s unclear whether or not cloud cover from this system will arrive in time to moderate Monday morning’s lows. But, even if it’s mostly clear, just upper 20s to lower 30s would occur at the coldest locations. That same rule of thumb applies to Tuesday and Wednesday. A new storm will theoretically spread clouds over the area Thursday, but at this juncture, that’s a low confidence call.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.. Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Visalia, 65%/100% Bakersfield, 60%/100%
Actual Humidity January 16, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 99%/61%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 20% tomorrow 20%, Bakersfield: Today 30% tomorrow 20%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days January 16, 2018: Stratford .19, Parlier .18, Blackwell, .28 Lindcove .20, Arvin .24, Orange Cove .25, Porterville .17, Delano .NA., Madera Two .16 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 54, Blackwell 57, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 56, Delano NA, Madera Two 54
7.2
Record Temperatures: 74/20. Average Temperatures: 55/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1047, -414 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for January so far, 53.5 +9.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.23 season. or -3.41. Month to Date: .82
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: .88, or -1.68, Month to Date: .82
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 545, Parlier, 582, Arvin, 509, Shafter, 641, Stratford, 581, Madera two, 912, Alpaugh, NA, Lindcove, 624, Porterville, 840. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:09 am Sunset: 5:10 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:00
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 56 / 46 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 59 / 47 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 54 / 49 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 56 / 47 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 54 / 46 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 56 / 48 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1558 / 58 / 50 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 57 / 46 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1559 / 51 / 43 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 54 / 46 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.52 57 10.14 163 6.22 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.25 59 8.31 151 5.49 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.99 38 8.42 161 5.24 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.31 24 7.06 131 5.38 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.23 26 8.42 179 4.71 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.68 37 5.04 110 4.60 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.88 34 4.65 179 2.60 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 9 4.06 176 2.31 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 2.13 40 7.60 143 5.32 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.16 42 7.66 148 5.19 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.95 35 8.29 150 5.54 13.95
Next Report: Thursday afternoon/January 18