January 19, 2018
Summary: A surface low has developed over the Kern County mountains today. This has slowed the pace of the cold front. Light showers are still falling in portions of southeast Tulare County and from there, southward into Kern County. To our northwest there are scattered showers developing along the Coast Range from roughly Monterey north.
The air mass now coming in is much colder. The freezing level today over Oakland had dropped down to 4,900 feet. With this in mind, snow may be falling below the 4,000 foot mark. Satellite imagery is also indicating skies are clearing from roughly Merced northward and skies will very slowly clear throughout the rest of the day and into this evening. A 120 knot jet stream out of the northwest is following the front which should result in a good amount of upslope clouds against the Sierra Nevada foothills and along the north facing slopes of the Kern County mountains. Upsloping could generate some light showers in the extreme south valley tonight with just a small chance of light showers elsewhere.
Skies will clear by Saturday afternoon, leaving mostly clear skies Sunday with areas of morning fog. Some locations will no doubt dip below freezing which is discussed in the frost summary below..
The next Pacific storm will move inland further north and will affect roughly the northern half of the Golden State with a chance of light showers as far south as Fresno County but only a slight chance further south.
A weak ridge will build in from the west Tuesday and Wednesday for a short period of dry weather with night and morning fog before the next weather event arrives late Thursday into early Friday. this trough will theoretically dig further south than previous systems, so it will be the best chance of picking up significant precipitation. After Friday, upper level high pressure will begin to take over with dry weather next weekend and well into the following week. This should set the stage for increasing amounts of fog and low clouds.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy tonight in the south valley with slow clearing from the northwest north of Tulare County. Mostly to partly cloudy Saturday morning. Clearing Saturday afternoon. Becoming mostly clear Saturday night and Sunday with areas of morning fog. Increasing clouds Monday with a chance of light showers from Fresno County northward and a slight chance further south. Mostly cloudy Monday night into Tuesday morning. Mostly clear Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night with areas of night and morning fog. Increasing cloudiness late Wednesday night with showers becoming likely Thursday and Thursday night. becoming partly cloudy Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 35/53/31/55 | Reedley 34/54/31/55 | Dinuba 35/53/30/56 | |
| Porterville 36/54/31/55 | Lindsay 35/53/30/54 | Delano 37/54/33/55 | |
| Bakersfield 40/53/35/56 | Arvin 40/53/33/56 | Taft 41/55/37/56 | |
| Lamont 38/53/33/56 | Pixley 36/54/32/55 | Tulare 33/54/30/55 | |
| Woodlake 35/54/31/55 | Hanford 35/54/31/55 | Orosi 35/55/30/55 | |
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest this evening at 5 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts, decreasing to 5 to 10 MPH after midnight with periods of near calm conditions by sunrise. Winds Saturday through Monday will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: There still are a few light showers in southeast Tulare County and Kern County as the front moves slowly southeastward. These showers will soon end throughout the entire valley with dry weather later tonight through Sunday night. the next weather maker will move into the northern half of California Monday with a chance of light showers as far south as Fresno County and only a slight chance further south. The main dynamics will move through northern California. Dry weather will return Tuesday through Wednesday night then what appears to be our best shot at a more significant weather event will occur Thursday into early Friday as a relatively cold trough of low pressure and its associated cold front moves through. On paper, much of the valley is projected to pick up a quarter of an inch or more from this system. Dry weather will return Friday with dry weather continuing through the weekend and well into the following week.
Frost Information: The colder air mass has arrived. However, I do not feel frost will be much of a challenge tonight as wind conditions and potential cloud cover should keep most locations in the mid 30s to the lower 40s. I can’t rule out a river bottom or two north of Kern County slipping into the lower 30s for short durations. Sunday morning will be more of a challenge as by then the atmosphere will have settled down and there will be considerably less cloud cover. The coldest unprotected locations could drop down to 27 to 29 in the typical cold low spots and the low to mid 30s elsewhere.
Monday’s outcome will be dependent on the arrive of increasing cloudiness ahead of the next storm system. If skies remain relatively clear Sunday night, some locations could dip down into the upper 20s to the lower 30s. For now, however, my feeling is increasing cloud cover will maintain above freezing conditions.
Only the very coldest locations could possibly dip into the lower 30s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Abundant cloud cover should maintain above freezing conditions Thursday and Friday mornings then the situation will moderate over the weekend as high pressure settles in with increasing amounts of fog and low clouds.
Lows Tonight:
Lows tonight will be at safe levels.
Next report:
Saturday morning/January 20