January 20, 2018
Summary: Upslope clouds against the Tehachapi Mountains and the Sierra Nevada foothills continue to regenerate over not just Tulare and Kern Counties, but also over eastern Fresno County up against the foothills. The central and western portions of the valley are generally clear north of Kern County. The big question of the hour is whether these upslope clouds will clear tonight, allowing below freezing conditions in some areas. Also, we’re still experiencing some gusty northwesterly winds along the far west side of the valley and from Fresno County north. This indicates there may very well be some mixing of the atmosphere. More is discussed in the frost section below.
Upper level high pressure will build in from the west beginning tonight and lasting through Sunday. If the winds die off, we could see pockets of low clouds and fog here and there Sunday morning. By late Sunday night, clouds will be increasing ahead of the next weather system which appears pretty weak. Most of the dynamics, what little it has, will move into northern California Monday with a chance of light showers from mainly Fresno northward.
Monday night through Wednesday will be dry as a temporary ridge of high pressure fills in from the west. Models have been pretty consistent on handling what looks to be more of a major storm event coming up Wednesday night and Thursday. This system will swing southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska, so it will be relatively cold, but not nearly as cold as the system that just passed through.
Models are still spitting out possible quarter to half inch rainfall totals on the east side north of Kern County with lesser amounts elsewhere. This should be a good snow producer in the mountain regions with more than a foot over the higher elevations. The storm will move eastward by Friday morning, setting the stage for what looks to be a prolonged period of dry weather as persistent high pressure builds in. the storm track will be well to the north of central California and, with high pressure again capping the valley, no doubt there will be increasing amounts of night and morning fog and/or low clouds beginning Saturday morning.
Forecast: Mostly to partly cloudy skies mainly from Tulare County southward into Kern County through the evening hours with mostly clear skies elsewhere. Some clouds may linger through the night in southeastern Tulare County and Kern County. Mostly clear Sunday with patchy morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night with a chance of light showers mainly from Fresno northward Monday. Partly cloudy Monday night then mostly clear Tuesday and Wednesday with areas of low clouds and fog, mainly in the nights and early mornings. Rain will overspread the valley Wednesday night with periods of rain Thursday, tapering off to just a chance of showers Thursday night. mostly to partly cloudy Friday with some clearing along the west side. Partly cloudy Friday night, becoming mostly clear Saturday with areas of night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 30/56/38/58 | Reedley 31/57/39/58 | Dinuba 29/56/37/58 | |
| Porterville 30/57/37/59 | Lindsay 29/57/39/59 | Delano 33/57/38/60 | |
| Bakersfield 36/57/40/60 | Arvin 35/57/38/61 | Taft 39/58/41/61 | |
| Lamont 31/58/39/59 | Pixley 30/57/38/58 | Tulare 29/57/36/58 | |
| Woodlake 30/57/38/59 | Hanford 31/57/38/59 | Orosi 30/57/39/58 | |
Winds: Winds will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts along the west side. Over the eastern portion of the valley and in Kern County, winds will be mainly in the 5 to 10 MPH range with near calm conditions, especially after midnight. Winds will be generally in the 5 to 10 MPH range Sunday through Tuesday with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry weather through Wednesday. The chance for precipitation will increase rapidly Wednesday night with periods of rain continuing Thursday and a chance of showers Thursday night. models consistently have been painting this system as a fairly major winter storm with the possibility of one quarter to one half inch totals north of Kern County and even upwards to a quarter of an inch in Kern County. One to two inches is possible along the Sierra Nevada foothills with definitely more than a foot of snow in the Sierra. Unfortunately, dry weather will return Friday and will last through at least the middle of the following week and quite possibly longer.
Frost Information: The air mass above us is certainly cold. The freezing level taken earlier today was down to 4,400 feet. Snow was falling down to 3,500 feet over the Tehachapi Mountains. Tonight is shaping up to be quite a variable night as several factors will play in. upslope clouds continue to regenerate all the way up and down the Sierra Nevada foothills from Fresno County southward and they cover most of Tulare and Kern Counties. The question of the hour is whether these clouds will erode as drier air moves in from the northwest or will the dry air scoot over the top of the clouds, allowing them to remain through Sunday morning. Models show these clouds mixing out during the night, but experience has taught me that’s not necessarily going to be the case.
For this forecast, I must operate under the assumption that skies will clear and the radiational cooling process will set up. Also, along the far west side, winds are out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH. this may create enough mixing throughout the valley to hold temperatures into the 30s, but that’s by no means guaranteed, either.
The numbers you’ll see below is a forecast based on the coldest potential scenario. Conditions will be generally above freezing if mixing and cloud cover do their jobs.
Clouds will be increasing Sunday night ahead of the next weather system which should keep temperatures above freezing. Clouds should persist through Tuesday morning, keeping temperatures acceptable. The air mass for Tuesday and Wednesday is more moderate than the current one, so even though temperatures will drop into the 30s, frost isn’t much of a concern.
Thursday and Friday mornings will see us with a major winter storm on our hands, keeping temperatures above freezing. This system isn’t quite as cold as the air mass we’re dealing with now. So, even though temperatures may fall I nto the mid to upper 30s over the weekend, no widespread frost is expected. There will also be increasing amounts of fog and low clouds beginning Saturday morning and increasing thereafter.
Longer range models do not indicate anything that would be dangerous.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
29 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
30 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
31 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
34 |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root Creek
28 |
Venice hill
29 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmine
30 |
| Arvin
34 |
Lamont
30 |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
33 |
| Edison
34 |
Maricopa
34 |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report:
Sunday morning/January 21