January 22, 2018
Summary: A few light showers have spread as far south as Salinas along the coast and Merced inland. Doppler radar currently indicates showers are dissipating once they reach about Madera County. The storm actually stalled overnight, leaving the southern half of the valley relatively clear. This allowed temperatures to drop into the lower 30s at some locations. Temperatures were actually in the low to mid 40s from Madera County northward.
As the front moves southward, it will essentially just dissipate over the south valley later today with no real impact on our region. Behind the front, a weak ridge of upper level high pressure will temporarily build in from the west for dry weather for the rest of the day and on through Wednesday. We should see some patchy fog Tuesday morning but for now it does not appear anything too extensive will occur.
Wednesday night and Thursday will be our last chance at a decent rain event for a while. A low pressure system from the Gulf of Alaska will swing southeastward through northern and central California with possibly some locally significant rain north of Kern County and heavy snow over the high Sierra. In fact, as the cold air mass moves in behind the front, the snow level could drop as low as 3,000 feet or so. The backside of the storm will swing eastward into Nevada Thursday night and early Friday, allowing a stronger and more persistent high to build in from the eastern Pacific Ocean. This high will be the dominant feature through at least the middle of next week and medium range models are indicating there’s no pattern that would result in rain further down the road.
As the high builds, more and more night and morning fog will develop, possibly locking the valley into a fog regime by Sunday. In weather, fog is going to do what it’s going to do, but the circumstances for fog formation will certainly be there.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness today. Becoming mostly to partly cloudy tonight. Partly cloudy Tuesday morning, becoming mostly clear Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with patchy morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday afternoon with periods of rain Wednesday night and Thursday morning. A chance of showers Thursday afternoon and evening. Mostly cloudy Thursday night into Friday morning. Clearing Friday afternoon. Becoming mostly clear Friday night through Monday with increasing amounts of morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 58/35/60/32/61 | Reedley 59/34/60/32/60 | Dinuba 59/33/60/32/60 | |
| Porterville 61/33/61/31/61 | Lindsay 60/34/61/32/61 | Delano 61/34/61/33/62 | |
| Bakersfield 61/38/62/36/63 | Arvin 62/34/62/34/64 | Taft 61/40/62/41/65 | |
| Lamont 61/35/62/34/64 | Pixley 60/35/60/33/61 | Tulare 58/33/60/33/61 | |
| Woodlake 59/34/60/32/61 | Hanford 60/35/60/32/61 | Orosi 59/35/60/32/60 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Rain likely 43/63 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 32/55 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 31/58 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 32/59 |
Monday
AM fog/PM sun 36/62 |
Two Week Outlook: January 25 through January 31: This model now indicates a blocking ridge of upper level high pressure will be over and off the west coast. This pattern would drive the storm track well north. Temperatures would rise to marginally above average values, assuming the fog doesn’t take over, with very little chance of precipitation.
February: This model doesn’t really grasp at any particular pattern through the month. In fact, central California, if you believe this model, should have temperatures close to seasonal values with near average precipitation, as well.
February, March, April: This model goes all the way through April and it is calling for a ridge of upper level high pressure off the southern California coast to be the most dominant, but not the only, feature during the spring months. If this model has any credence at all, temperatures should be marginally above average with below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Wednesday. Winds Wednesday night will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH then will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH Thursday with stronger gusts, diminishing Thursday night.
Rain: The current weather system is turning out to be pretty much a no show. The cold front, or what’s left of it, is moving into the central valley at this hour and will dissipate over the south valley later today. Dry weather will continue tonight through Wednesday then a fairly major Pacific winter storm will engulf northern and central California Wednesday night and Thursday morning with a chance of showers Thursday afternoon and evening. Rainfall amounts with this system have been upped a bit by models. We’re not back up to a quarter to a half inch north of Kern County and possibly upwards to a quarter inch in Kern County. The west side will also see somewhat less as a weak rain shadow develops.
Dry weather will return Thursday night and will continue indefinitely. Models have been very consistent about a persistent ridge building over and along the west coast for prolonged dry weather which should last through at least most of next week.
Frost: Most locations dropped into the lower 30s overnight as skies remained relatively clear as the frontal system to our northwest stalled. Tonight, most locations will be in the mid to upper 30s, but some of the typical cold spots may drop into the lower 30s, assuming skies are generally clear.
For Wednesday morning, low to mid 30s are certainly possible as the air mass very temporarily stabilized, but nothing threatening is at hand. All locations will be above freezing Thursday morning as a major storm affects the region.
The air mass swinging in behind the Thursday event is cold, probably equivalent to what we’ve experienced the past few days. It’s possible upper 20s and lower 30s could occur Friday, Saturday, and Sunday mornings, but only if skies remain clear and the fog doesn’t take over. Fog coverage will begin to increase Saturday through Monday mornings. Also, if we get some fairly high dew points behind the Thursday event, it would help keep temperatures in the low to mid 30s.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
33 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
331 |
| Belridge
32 |
Delano
34 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange cove
30 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
313 |
| Arvin
33 |
Lamont
31 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
33 |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
30 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
30 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid 30s to the lower 40s. Mid to upper 30s.
Humidity: Visalia, 60%/100% Bakersfield, 45%.90%
Actual Humidity January 19, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 30% tomorrow 70%, Bakersfield: Today 60% tomorrow 70%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days January 19, 2018: Stratford .10, Parlier .NA, Blackwell, .29 Lindcove .21, Arvin .18, Orange Cove .26, Porterville .15, Delano .NA., Madera Two 14. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 53, Blackwell 56, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 55, Delano NA, Madera Two 54
7.2
Record Temperatures: 72/24. Average Temperatures: 55/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1093, -428 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for January so far, 52.9 +8.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.36 season. or -3.48. Month to Date: .95
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.03, or -1.64, Month to Date: .96
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 548, Parlier, 583, Arvin, 549, Shafter, 645, Stratford, 590, Madera two, 971, Alpaugh, NA, Lindcove, 676, Porterville, 907. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:08 am Sunset: 5:13 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:03
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 57 / 33 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 56 / 35 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 56 / 31 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 56 / 29 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 57 / 34 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 55 / 31 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / M / M / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 57 / 34 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 54 / 38 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.66 56 11.93 182 6.56 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.38 58 10.23 176 5.82 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.16 39 9.62 173 5.56 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.43 25 8.37 148 5.67 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.36 27 9.56 192 4.97 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.72 36 6.03 126 4.80 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.03 38 5.53 202 2.74 6.47
BISHOP T 0.20 8 4.37 181 2.42 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 2.22 39 8.84 156 5.65 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.20 40 9.14 165 5.53 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.97 34 9.88 168 5.88 13.95
Next Report: Monday afternoon/January 22