January 25, 2018
Summary: There is a wide variance in temperatures this afternoon, ranging from 61 near Madera to 49 at Maricopa, and 47 at Arvin where upslope clouds are keeping temperatures on the chilly side. Overall, most locations are in the mid to upper 50s.
The cold front that moved through during the morning hours has moved eastward out of our region, but it’s being followed by the cold upper trough of low pressure which is currently moving through northern California and, to a lesser extent, central California this afternoon. There are scattered showers in the northern San Joaquin and Sacramento Valleys with a few showers extending southward into western Fresno County. This area of instability will move through during the remainder of the afternoon through the early evening hours with activity grinding to a halt tonight as the trough shifts eastward and upper level high pressure begins to fill in.
Upslope clouds, as anticipated, are developing along the valley facing slopes of the Kern County mountains and the foothills of the Sierra Nevada, mainly in Tulare County. The regeneration of these clouds may continue for a time tonight and possibly into Friday morning, especially in Kern County and southeast Tulare County. The west side and the central portion of the valley will begin to clear, especially after midnight. There is a chance of local frost tonight, which is covered in the frost discussion below.
Beginning Friday, a flat zone of upper level high pressure will become established off the California coast inland through the Great Basin. Storms this weekend will move over the top of the high and into the Pacific Northwest.
Areas of fog will begin to develop in the valley Saturday morning and more so Sunday as the high takes over and a warm air inversion begins to form. The high will be shaved off to the north a bit Monday and Tuesday with a westerly flow in the upper atmosphere over northern California. This will not change the overall pattern of dry weather and increasing amounts of fog during the nights and mornings. By Wednesday night and Thursday of next week, the high will build even further north and will completely block any potential storms from making headway into our region for the next week to possibly ten days.
We are now late in the fog season, but this does appear to be a pattern conducive for widespread night and morning fog, possibly persisting through the day in some areas, especially north of Kern County and towards the center of the valley.
The two week outlook continues to show a blocking ridge along the west coast for above average temperatures over the mountain and coastal areas with temperatures in the valley being determined by how much fog there is.
Forecast: Partly cloudy through this evening with mostly cloudy skies over Kern County and eastern Tulare county with a chance of isolated showers through the early evening hours. Clearing after midnight in Kern County and away from the Sierra Nevada foothills. Mostly clear Friday with the possible exception of Kern County and southeastern Tulare County. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Sunday night with areas of fog and low clouds developing Saturday morning and more so Sunday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday through Thursday with the potential for widespread fog and low clouds nights and mornings, possibly locally persisting through the day.
Short Term:
| Madera 32/60/30/60 | Reedley 31/59/30/61 | Dinuba 30/59/30/60 | |
| Porterville 32/59/31/60 | Lindsay 30/59/30/61 | Delano 33/60/31/61 | |
| Bakersfield 36/58/35/61 | Arvin 35/59/32/60 | Taft 39/59/37/60 | |
| Lamont 33/59/32/60 | Pixley 33/60/31/61 | Tulare 30/58/30/59 | |
| Woodlake 31/60/31/61 | Hanford 33/60/31/60 | Orosi 31/59/30/60 | |
Winds: Winds will be out of the northwest this evening at 5 to 10 MPH, decreasing after midnight. Winds Friday through Sunday will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: There is still a small chance of a few scattered showers through the early evening hours, otherwise expect dry weather tonight with the only exception being the extreme south valley where upsloping against the Kern County mountains may wring out a few light showers through the nighttime hours. We’ll see a prolonged period of dry weather beginning Friday as the storm track shifts into the Pacific Northwest and far northern California. Next week appears dry as the ridge builds even farther north at midweek, ending any chance of precipitation for the next week to possibly ten days.
Frost Information: Skies have cleared over portions of the valley this afternoon. There are notable exceptions, however. Up slope clouds are very evident against the valley facing slopes of the Kern County mountains and, to a lesser extent, along the foothills of Tulare County. There is some cloud cover in the west valley and even a few embedded showers in Fresno County. Chaos is how I would best describe tonight’s forecast as erratic wind conditions and various amounts of cloud cover may affect your location. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a continuing regeneration of upslope clouds against the Kern County mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada.
The air mass that’s now established over central California is cold, but is certainly no big deal. Low to mid 30s will be widespread tonight in areas with clear skies and where winds die off with even a chance of upper 20s in the coldest low lying areas.
Saturday and Sunday mornings have a greater risk of locations being in the low to mid 30s and even low 20s for short durations. All in all, however, this is your garden variety late January air mass which does not pose any threats.
The main challenge, once we get past Saturday, will be increasing amounts of night and morning fog, theoretically becoming more extensive as we go along and possibly lasting through the afternoon, mainly north of Kern County and towards the center of the valley. If the fog and low clouds do become extensive, it would certainly moderate overnight lows.
Any night that does happen to be clear before Wednesday would see low to mid 30s, but certainly nothing to write home about.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
30 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
33 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
31 |
| Arvin
34 |
Lamont
33 |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
34 |
Maricopa
33 |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
30 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: Friday morning, January 26