January 26, 2018
Summary: The current air mass is still on the cold side. The freezing level taken earlier today above Vandenberg was only at 4,900 feet. On the valley floor, temperatures at 1:00pm were averaging in the mid 50s with dew points generally in the upper 30s. upper level high pressure is slowly nudging in from the west as a new Pacific storm moves towards the Oregon coast. This system will spread precipitation over roughly the northern ¼ of California and should provide some high clouds from time to time tonight and Saturday, but it’s very questionable whether these clouds will be thick enough to slow the radiational cooling process. All the models are indicating near to marginally below freezing temperatures tonight in the rural areas with temperatures in the upper 20s in the typical frost pockets.
Patchy fog will begin to develop later tonight and early Saturday morning, but for now it doesn’t look like it will be widespread.
As high pressure off shore continues to move slowly eastward, a warm air inversion will form Saturday night, building through the week next week. The high will flatten over northern California Monday night and Tuesday as yet another storm passes to our north, resulting in a zonal or westerly flow from the eastern Pacific into California. By the time we hit the mid to latter part of next week, upper level high pressure will be building more northward into the Pacific Northwest, ,possibly even into southern British Columbia. This will result in a mild, dry pattern in the western states and what could be very cold weather east of the Rockies as polar air slides down the eastern rim of the high.
The new two week outlook is out this afternoon and it continues to favor a dry pattern with above average temperatures.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy tonight and Saturday with generally patchy fog developing late tonight and Saturday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday night through Tuesday with increasing amounts of night and morning fog. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Friday with widespread night and morning fog and at least some afternoon clearing.
Short Term:
| Madera 30/59/31/61 | Reedley 31/60/31/61 | Dinuba 29/59/30/60 | |
| Porterville 30/60/30/63 | Lindsay 29/61/30/63 | Delano 32/61/32/63 | |
| Bakersfield 35/61/36/64 | Arvin 31/61/32/65 | Taft 36/61/38/65 | |
| Lamont 30/61/31/64 | Pixley 30/60/31/63 | Tulare 29/59/30/61 | |
| Woodlake 30/59/31/61 | Hanford 31/61/31/63 | Orosi 29/60/30/62 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next seven to possibly ten days.
Frost Information: Air temperatures this afternoon as of 1:00 were generally huddled in the mid 50s while most locations were reporting dew points in the upper 30s with a sprinkling in the lower 40s. The air aloft above central California remains cold. The sounding above Vandenberg earlier today shows a freezing level of only 4,900 feet. The lower level of the atmosphere has calmed down after yesterday’s weak frontal passage. Some cumulous have developed along the foothills to the east and south, but they will dissipate after midnight.
There is one area of clouds, however, I will be watching. Upper level high pressure is centered just off shore and a swath of mid and high level clouds are moving over the top of the high off the southern Oregon coast then southeastward into northern California as far south as the northern San Joaquin Valley. These clouds may come into play later tonight, potentially slowing the radiational cooling effect. However, for now I’m leaning towards these clouds being too thin to have much impact on temperatures. Also, the fog will be sporadic during the later night and morning hours, mainly up the center of the valley north of Kern County. All in all, the potential for lower 30s is high tonight with upper 20s in colder river bottom and like locations. Coldest low lying regions could drop down to 26 to 27 degrees during the early morning hours with most other locations ranging from 28 to 34.
The inversion tonight will be moderately weak with temperatures at 34 feet being 3 to 5 degrees warmer.
Sunday morning also has the potential for widespread lower 30s with a few upper 20s. Fog will become more prevalent Sunday morning, but will probably form too late for much impact.
A new storm will move into Oregon and clip northern California Monday night and Tuesday. We may see some high level clouds from this system, but by that time the atmosphere should have modified anyway. An amplified pattern will develop Wednesday with a big ridge over and along the west coast, extending northward into British Columbia and will be there through the following weekend. This will maintain above freezing temperatures over the western states, but another polar outbreak will hit the Midwest and the east.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
29 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
31 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
31 |
North Bakersfield
30 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
33 |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root creek
28 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmine
30 |
| Arvin
31 |
Lamont
29 |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
33 |
| Edison
31 |
Maricopa
30 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
28 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: Saturday morning, January 27