January 26, 2018
Summary: The only vestiges of the upslope clouds in Kern County are right against the Tehachapi Mountains and are limited to just a few patches here and there. The remainder of the valley is relatiavely clear with a few patches of fog. Yesterday’s weather system has long since moved on, leaving central California under a cool northwesterly flow aloft. The freezing level taken earlier last night was still only 5,000 feet. So, temperatures this afternoon will again be cool and, with relatively clear skies, readings will fall to below freezing in most areas tonight outside of the big cities.
Over the weekend, upper level high pressure will continue to slowly build inland, generating a slow warming trend over the mountains and coastal areas. No doubt, as is typical, a relatively cold pool of air will settle onto the valley floor, allowing for chilly overnight low temperatures. The main storm track will move through the Pacific Northwest and about the northern ¼ of California. We should see some high clouds from these systems from time to time, but little else.
A zonal flow will become evident Monday through Tuesday, maintaining the storm track well to our north. By Wednesday and Thursday, the high will begin to build into the Pacific Northwest, further ensuring dry weather well into February. The main forecast challenge from this point on will be the formation of night and morning fog on the valley floor and how extensive it potentially becomes. As we all know, fog has a mind of its own, however a warm air inversion will develop underneath that high and will at least create conditions favorable for fog development.
The new two week forecast out this morning gives little hope for rain, so dry weather simply appears from horizon to horizon. Hopefully this will change soon as more than half the traditional rainfall season is over with pretty dismal totals up and down the line.
Forecast: Mostly clear today. Mostly clear Saturday through Sunday with patches of fog Saturday morning, fog becoming more extensive Sunday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday night through Wednesday with widespread night and morning fog. Mostly clear Wednesday night through Friday with extensive night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 57/31/59/30/61 | Reedley 58/31/59/31/60 | Dinuba 57/30/59/30/60 | |
| Porterville 58/31/59/31/62 | Lindsay 58/30/60/30/62 | Delano 58/32/61/31/63 | |
| Bakersfield 57/36/61/37/63 | Arvin 57/33/60/32/64 | Taft 58/38/61/40/64 | |
| Lamont 59/32/61/30/63 | Pixley 57/31/59/30/63 | Tulare 56/30/59/30/62 | |
| Woodlake 58/31/59/30/62 | Hanford 59/31/60/31/61 | Orosi 59/30/60/30/62 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
AM fog/PM sun 33/62 |
Tuesday
AM fog/PM sun 35/62 |
Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 37/63 |
Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 36/62 |
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 36/61 |
Two Week Outlook: February 2 through February 8: This model now indicates a blocking ridge of upper level high pressure will be over and off the west coast. This pattern would drive the storm track well north. Temperatures would rise to marginally above average values, assuming the fog doesn’t take over, with very little chance of precipitation.
February: This model doesn’t really grasp at any particular pattern through the month. In fact, central California, if you believe this model, should have temperatures close to seasonal values with near average precipitation, as well.
February, March, April: This model goes all the way through April and it is calling for a ridge of upper level high pressure off the southern California coast to be the most dominant, but not the only, feature during the spring months. If this model has any credence at all, temperatures should be marginally above average with below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Monday with near calm conditions nights and mornings.
Rain: Expect dry weather for the next week and possibly ten days.
Frost: Many locations are chilling into the lower 30s this morning with coldest locations down into the upper 20s. virtually all of the upslope clouds that were evident during the first half of the night slowly dissipated during the early morning hours, resulting in mostly clear skies. Tonight will be equally as chilly as a relatively cold air mass is still in place. The freezing level earlier last night was still only at 5,000 feet.
As upper level high pressure begins to slowly build in from the west, a relatively dry and cold air mass will be trapped on the valley floor. Coldest locations tonight will be down to 27 to 28 or so with many locations ranging from 29 to 33. The inversion tonight will be firming up with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 3 to 5 degrees warmer at most locations.
Similar conditions can be expected Sunday morning though we could be seeing some high clouds moving overhead from a storm system moving through the Pacific Northwest. Also, fog just might play a role. But under ideal conditions, upper 20s to the mid 30s are likely.
Pacific storms will be rolling into the Pacific Northwest Monday and Tuesday, possibly providing periods of clouds from time to time. Also, fog and low clouds might be playing a role by this time in both daytime highs and overnight lows. Generally speaking, temperatures will be mostly above freezing.
We are closing in on February now which means the sun angle is somewhat higher in the sky. This offers a better chance of moderating air masses on the valley floor. It will be interesting to see if the pattern sets up for at least moderation for the latter half of next week and beyond.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
31 |
North Bakersfield
30 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
33 |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root creek
28 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmine
30 |
| Arvin
30 |
Lamont
29 |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
33 |
| Edison
31 |
Maricopa
29 |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
28 |
| Kite Road South
30 |
Kite Road North
28 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Mid to upper 30s
Humidity: Visalia, 60%/100% Bakersfield, 60%.90%
Actual Humidity January 24, 2018: Porterville, 99%/32%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 70%, Bakersfield: Today 90% tomorrow 70%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days January 24, 2018: Stratford .34, Parlier .36, Blackwell, .NA Lindcove .31, Arvin .33, Orange Cove .39, Porterville .30, Delano .NA., Madera Two 31. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 51, Blackwell 55, Lindcove, 56, Arvin, 53, Orange Cove 48, Porterville 51, Delano NA, Madera Two 52
7.2
Record Temperatures: 75/24. Average Temperatures: 56/36
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1185, -431 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for January so far, 51.5 +6.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.36 season. or -3.80. Month to Date: .95
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.03, or -1.82, Month to Date: .96
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 618, Parlier, 646, Arvin, 611, Shafter, 709, Stratford, 639, Madera two, 1041, Lindcove, 764, Porterville, 1003. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:05 am Sunset: 5:18 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:11
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 59 / 42 / 0.12 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 59 / 46 / 0.28 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 59 / 47 / 0.06 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 59 / 44 / 0.16 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 56 / 45 / 0.07 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 58 / 47 / 0.13 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1559 / 58 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 58 / 41 / 0.10 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1600 / 51 / 45 / 0.10 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 58 / 41 / 0.09 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.04 3.99 58 12.49 181 6.91 14.06
MODESTO 0.02 3.55 58 10.55 171 6.16 13.11
MERCED 0.12 2.29 39 9.84 169 5.82 12.50
MADERA 0.12 1.55 26 9.24 157 5.90 12.02
FRESNO 0.28 1.64 31 10.06 192 5.23 11.50
HANFORD 0.06 1.78 36 6.24 126 4.97 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.07 1.10 38 5.79 201 2.88 6.47
BISHOP T 0.20 8 5.59 222 2.52 5.18
SALINAS 0.12 2.51 42 9.86 165 5.98 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.10 2.30 39 10.59 180 5.87 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.05 2.02 32 10.64 171 6.23 13.95
Next Report: Friday afternoon, January 26