February 5, 2018
Summary: Temperatures as of 1:00pm were already at or exceeding the 70 degree mark. So, another delightful afternoon if you don’t mind the haze. Visibilities are generally running between 3 and 5 miles and, as per usual, areas of fog will develop tonight up the center of the valley north of Kern County, but nothing too widespread is expected.
Strong upper level high pressure is unabated over the eastern Pacific Ocean and the western ¼ of the U.S. The freezing level taken earlier today was right at 12,000 feet.
A weak upper air disturbance will race southeastward through the interior west Tuesday and this may lower temperatures, but probably no more than a degree or two. By Wednesday, the high will rebound, this time with a ridge extendidng northward into Alaska, meaning the entire west coast will be shielded.
There are changes afoot, though, which will occur this coming weekend. There are two upper lows which will drop southward from western Canada, reaching northern California Saturday and southern California Sunday. Typically, these types of systems do not pose much threat of rain with the possible exception of the high Sierra where lift may squeeze out some snow showers from this system. Another low will follow an almost identical path Monday through Tuesday. This system also appears to be dry, but each of these systems willd drag colder air into the state with possibly some gusty winds along the west side of the valley beginning this weekend. There is actually a minimal chance of frost, which is discussed below.
In the longer term, outside of these two fairly benign systems, dry weather will continue. If models hold, dry weather will hold through the 19th of February.
Forecast: Pockets of dense fog up the center of the valley north of Kern County each morning, otherwise it will be mostly clear and hazy through Friday night with occasional high, thin clouds. Partly cloudy Saturday through Sunday and turning cooler. Continued partly cloudy Sunday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 41/71/41/71 | Reedley 43/72/42/73 | Dinuba 41/71/42/74 | |
| Porterville 41/73/41/74 | Lindsay 40/72/41/74 | Delano 44/73/44/75 | |
| Bakersfield 47/75/48/77 | Arvin 44/75/44/77 | Taft 53/74/53/76 | |
| Lamont 44/74/44/76 | Pixley 43/73/43/75 | Tulare 41/71/41/73 | |
| Woodlake 42/72/42/74 | Hanford 41/71/42/75 | Orosi 42/72/42/75 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Thursday with near calm conditions nights and mornings.
Rain: There are two benign upper level lows which will race from north to south from western Canada into California. One will arrive Sunday and the other about Monday night. for now, each appears dry as they will be taking an overland trajectory with only a small chance of showers over the Sierra Nevada. Sometimes these types of systems can be a bit tricky, so we may need to amend this forecast at some point and add a slight chance of showers to the forecast, but for now we’ll keep the forecast dry.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight with above freezing conditions through Saturday morning. A colder pool of air will arrive during the second half of the weekend in the form of a relatively cold upper level low. This system could lower temperatures into the low to mid 30s by Sunday morning, but for now that’s as far as I’m going to go. Another nearly identical system will follow a similar path about Monday night which will a: bring another shot of colder air into the valley and, b: will create a strong off shore flow. Conceivably, this type of pattern could bring the temperatures down into the upper 20s to the mid 30s by Tuesday morning, however all the elements would have to fall into place just right for conditions to get that chilly. For now, we’ll put all this into the chance category and adjust the forecast as needed.
Next Report: Tuesday morning, February 6