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Forecast

February 8, 2018/report

February 8, 2018

Summary:  Very strong upper level high pressure continues to be anchored over the eastern Pacific Ocean and the western one-third of the United States.  The position of the high combined with a weak off shore flow is driving temperatures to near record values.  Yesterday, Bakersfield topped out at 81 degrees with most other locations in the mid to upper 70s.  expect similar conditions today and Friday.

 

The high will shift a bit further west over the weekend, allowing two low pressure systems to affect the area.  The first will move through Saturday with very little fanfare other than to lower temperatures a tad to more acceptable levels.  Even so, readings will remain a few degrees above seasonal averages.  The second system will move through Monday into early Tuesday.  This will result in a tricky forecast as some models are indicating a secondary low pressure system will develop over northern and central California during this time frame.  The low will  move rapidly southward and form a cut off low off the southern California coast.  This could result in light showers over the mountain and coastal areas of southern California and possibly even over the Kern County mountains.  One model is actually suggesting this low will tap into subtropical moisture off the Baja coastline and then circulate the moisture northward into southern California and possibly the south half of the central valley about Thursday or Friday of next week.  As you can see,  models just don’t show this system  moving much.  It will literally be embedded in this massive high will continue to deal with.

 

Nothing this morning to indicate a change in the overall pattern as the blocking ridge continues to show up on medium range models.

 

Forecast: Clear skies and hazy conditions through Friday night with patchy late night and early morning fog north of Kern County and mainly up the center of the valley.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday through Sunday night with a cooling trend.  Variable cloudiness at times Monday through Tuesday with a slight chance of a few light showers, mainly near the Sierra Nevada foothills.  Mostly clear Tuesday night through Thursday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 77/41/76/42/68 Reedley 79/41/77/40/70 Dinuba 77/39/77/40/69
Porterville 79/41/77/40/71 Lindsay 79/42/77/42/70 Delano 79/44/78/45/70
Bakersfield 81/48/77/46/69 Arvin 80/45/79/45/71 Taft 79/56/77/55/71
Lamont 80/46/78/45/70 Pixley 79/41/77/42/69 Tulare 77/40/77/41/70
Woodlake 78/41/77/41/69 Hanford 78/42/77/41/70 Orosi 77/40/76/40/69

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Partly cloudy

39/70

Monday

Slight chance of pm showers

37/67

Tuesday

Slight chance of showers

38/64

Wednesday

Mostly clear

37/66

Thursday

Mostly clear

38/69

 

Two Week Outlook:  February 13 through February 19:  This model continues to show a blocking ridge of upper level high pressure over and off the west coast.  This pattern would drive the storm track well north.  Temperatures would rise to marginally above average values, assuming the fog doesn’t take over, with very little chance of precipitation.

 

February:  This model doesn’t really grasp at any particular pattern through the month.  In fact, central California, if you believe this model, should have temperatures close to seasonal values with near average precipitation, as well.

 

February, March, April:  This model goes all the way through April and it is calling for a ridge of upper level high pressure off the southern California coast to be the most dominant, but not the only, feature during the spring months.  If this model has any credence at all, temperatures should be marginally above average with below average precipitation.

 

Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with near calm conditions through Friday morning.  From late Friday afternoon through Saturday, winds will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts, mainly along the far west side.  Winds Sunday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH.

 

Rain: The next chance of rain, however slight it may be, will be Monday and Tuesday of next week.  A low will drive rapidly southward from western Canada, arriving in our region Monday into Tuesday morning.  Models do project a small chance of light showers over the mountains, but I cannot completely rule out isolated light showers, mainly Monday night and early Tuesday primarily along the Sierra Nevada foothills.  Dry weather will return Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night.  the same low I just mentioned will form a low pressure system off the southern  California coast Wednesday night through Friday.  one model  actually indicates subtropical moisture will get caught up in the circulation pattern, possibly spreading showers into southern California Thursday into Friday with showers possibly making it as far north as Fresno County.  For now, I’m going to go with a dry forecast for that time frame while watching to see if other models pick up on this possibility.

 

Frost:  So far, I do not see any legitimate chance of frost.  However, a colder low pressure system will race through central California Monday into Tuesday.  We certainly could see temperatures in the mid to upper 30s by Sunday morning with a chance of lower 30s in the coldest locations.  For now, though, no critical temperatures are on the horizon.  We’ll continue to tweak the forecast for this time frame to see how much colder air eventually settles onto the valley floor.

 

Lows Tonight: 

All locations will be above freezing tonight.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Low to mid 40s

Humidity: Visalia, 30%/95%  Bakersfield, 25/80%

Actual Humidity February 6, 2018: Delano, 87%/43%.  Porterville, 96%/46%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 100%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 100%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days February 6, 2018: Stratford .NA, Parlier .45, Blackwell .57 Lindcove .52, Arvin .59, Orange Cove .59, Porterville .50, Delano .53., Madera Two .50.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford NA, Parlier 55, Blackwell 56, Lindcove, 56, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 54, Delano 52, Madera Two 52

7.2

Record Temperatures: 74/24. Average Temperatures: 59/37

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1333, -496 Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for February so far, 56.4 +8.4

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since October 1, 2017  Fresno: 1.64 season. or -4.39.  Month to Date: .00

Since October 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  1.10, or -2.24,  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 715, Parlier, 745, Arvin, 683, Shafter, 812, Stratford, 740, Madera two, 1205, Lindcove, 874, Porterville, 1174.  Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:55 am  Sunset: 5:31 pm. Hours of Daylight:  10:33

 

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  78 /  44 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  79 /  48 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  78 /  42 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  79 /  39 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  81 /  47 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  77 /  43 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1553 /  81 /  41 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  78 /  42 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1555 /  77 /  51 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  74 /  43 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                                                       Season     %        Last y.   %           Ave.       Annual Ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    3.99    49   13.98   172     8.15    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    3.55    48   11.54   157     7.33    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    2.29    34   11.35   171     6.65    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    1.55    23   10.15   154     6.61    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    1.64    27   10.53   170     6.18    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    1.78    32    7.38   134     5.52    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    1.10    32    6.14   179     3.43     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.20     7    6.57   229     2.87     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    2.51    35   10.43   146     7.16    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    2.30    33   12.29   174     7.05    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    2.02    27   12.20   162     7.53    13.95

 

Next Report: Thursday/February 8/pm