February 9, 2018
Summary: Minor cooling will begin Saturday as the strong upper high is currently slowly moving westward further off shore. In the meantime, the first of several weak waves of low pressure has moved in as far south as the California/Oregon border. High clouds will begin to spread over central California tonight and continue at times through Sunday night. The vast majority of the energy from these systems will move into Nevada and Utah, bypassing California.
A stronger trough will begin to move into northern California Monday. By Tuesday morning, the center of circulation of a new low which will form just off the central coast will be centered just off the central California coast. It will then move southward off the southern California coast later Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will be a tricky system as it is possible some light showers could occur, mainly over the mountains, later Monday night through Tuesday evening as the low passes just to the west. Interestingly enough, models are still maintaining a flow of subtropical air will become entrained in the circulation off the southern California coast. Some models show light showers spreading over southern California and possibly as far north as Kings and Tulare Counties. Territory north of Fresno County will be out of the circulation patter, so expect dry weather.
The low will weaken Wednesday night and Thursday morning, moving rapidly into the Desert Southwest and ending this minor precipitation risk. From Thursday on, the big high we’ve become so accustomed to this winter will remain further west, allowing for more of a north/northwest flow over California. temperatures will be more moderate, closer to average, by Tuesday and will remain that way for the rest of next week.
The new two week model out this afternoon is indicating near average temperatures but still the chance of precipitation remain extremely low.
Forecast: Mostly clear tonight but with high clouds mixing in at times. Mostly clear Saturday through Monday morning with periods of mid level clouds at times. Increasing cloudiness Monday afternoon. Variable cloudiness late Monday night through Wednesday with a small chance of light showers, mainly south of Fresno County. Becoming mostly clear Thursday through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 41/69/38/68 | Reedley 42/69/38/68 | Dinuba 40/68/38/69 | |
| Porterville 40/70/37/69 | Lindsay 39/69/37/69 | Delano 43/70/42/70 | |
| Bakersfield 48/71/43/69 | Arvin 44/71/40/70 | Taft 53/71/46/70 | |
| Lamont 45/71/42/70 | Pixley 41/69/39/69 | Tulare 40/68/37/68 | |
| Woodlake 41/68/38/69 | Hanford 42/68/38/69 | Orosi 40/69/38/68 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through tonight. Winds Saturday through Sunday will be generally out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly along the west side. Winds Monday will increase during the day to possibly 10 to 20 MPH with locally stronger gusts.
Rain: Late Monday night and Tuesday now appear to be our best shot, low as it may be, at some light showers. By Tuesday morning, the center of circulation of a dry low pressure system will be skirting the central coast. It’s possible there may be enough dynamics for sprinkles or light showers, especially Tuesday. By Wednesday, it becomes a real tough call as by then the low will be off the southern California coast. Some models suggest the low will pick up subtropical moisture off of Baja and move it into southern California and possibly as far north as Kings and Tulare Counties. The bottom line is, on Wednesday, the farther south you go, the better the chance of light showers. By Wednesday night and Thursday, the low will race into the Desert Southwest, ending this chance of precipitation. Beyond that, all looks dry.
Frost Discussion: it would still appear Sunday morning would be the most likely day for local frost, although I consider the chance to be low. One model places Porterville at 35 Sunday morning which, if it did occur, would place frost pockets down to 30 to 32. Most models point to milder conditions and keep temperatures above freezing. There is a slight possibility of low 30s in the frost pockets early Monday morning, but again, most models show above freezing conditions.
Heavy cloud cover will maintain acceptable temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. On Thursday and Friday, mid 30s to lower 40s looks most plausible with generally above freezing conditions thereafter.
Next Report: Saturday morning, February 10