February 9, 2018
Summary: This will be the last day of exceedingly warm temperatures for this early in the season. The strong upper high which has dominated our weather for weeks now will retrograde, or back up further off shore. This will allow three weather systems, two of which will be dry, to move through beginning Saturday and lasting through Tuesday. The first of these waves will move into central California Saturday, starting the process of moving temperatures south. As pressures tighten up between off shore waters and the Great Basin, increased wind conditions can be expected Saturday and Saturday night, especially along the west side. Another weak ripple of dry low pressure will move through Sunday, continuing the cooling process.
The third and strongest will rapidly move southward from just off the British Columbia coast to just off the central California coast by Monday afternoon, forming a closed low just off the southern California coast Tuesday and Wednesday. It appears we will be on the far eastern side of the active portion of this storm, so the greatest possibility of showers will be along the coast and the Coast Range with a slight chance of showers over the valley, mainly south of Fresno County.
By Wednesday, models show the counter clockwise circulation picking up subtropical moisture and spinning it northward into southern California and possibly as far north as the south valley. The chance of showers, mainly in Kern County, will be low, but certainly worth mentioning. By Thursday, the low off the south coast will zip eastward into the Desert Southwest, ending the rather interesting pattern that’s evolving.
Beyond Thursday, all looks dry as our mighty shield, the upper high, sets up shop again just off shore.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies today and tonight. Mostly clear Saturday through Sunday with periods of high clouds at times. Partly cloudy Sunday night then variable cloudiness Monday through Wednesday with a chance of light showers Monday afternoon through Tuesday, mainly south of Fresno County. Partly cloudy Wednesday night, becoming mostly clear Thursday through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 74/40/68/39/68 | Reedley 74/41/70/38/68 | Dinuba 72/39/68/38/68 | |
| Porterville 74/40/69/40/68 | Lindsay 74/39/70/37/68 | Delano 75/45/70/40/69 | |
| Bakersfield 75/47/70/44/69 | Arvin 75/43/70/42/70 | Taft 75/52/70/45/69 | |
| Lamont 76/44/71/41/70 | Pixley 74/41/69/39/69 | Tulare 73/40/68/37/68 | |
| Woodlake 74/40/68/38/68 | Hanford 75/41/70/39/69 | Orosi 74/40/68/38/69 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
PM showers possible 38/66 |
Tuesday
Chance of light showers 46/59 |
Wednesday
Slight chance of showers 40/63 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 39/64 |
Friday
Mostly clear 41/67 |
Two Week Outlook: February 16 through February 22: This model continues to show a blocking ridge of upper level high pressure over and off the west coast. This pattern would drive the storm track well north. Temperatures would rise to marginally above average values, assuming the fog doesn’t take over, with very little chance of precipitation.
February: This model doesn’t really grasp at any particular pattern through the month. In fact, central California, if you believe this model, should have temperatures close to seasonal values with near average precipitation, as well.
February, March, April: This model goes all the way through April and it is calling for a ridge of upper level high pressure off the southern California coast to be the most dominant, but not the only, feature during the spring months. If this model has any credence at all, temperatures should be marginally above average with below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday night. later Saturday, winds will become out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times with possibly stronger gusts, mainly along the west side. Winds Sunday and Monday will be generally out of the northwest at 10 to15 MPH.
Rain: A complex low pressure system will move southward just to our west Monday afternoon and night. the best chance of light showers will be Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Greatest risk will be from the coastal mountains west. It’s possible parts of the valley, especially south of Fresno County, could pick up a few light showers. By early Wednesday the low will have moved to a position off the southern California coast. Models are showing subtropical moisture moving up the eastern side of this storm and into central California Wednesday and Wednesday night. it looks like most of the valley will be too far north to be impacted with the possible exception of Kern County. From Wednesday night and beyond, another extended period of dry weather appears to be at hand.
Frost: It looks like the only morning with any chance of localized pockets of frost will be Sunday morning. Most locations, however, should end up in the mid 30s to even near 40. By Monday morning, clouds should be increasing ahead of a fast approaching low pressure system which will throw cloud cover over the area through Wednesday, maintaining above freezing conditions. The character of the air mass beyond Wednesday is definitely cooler than we’ve been used to, but for now it looks to be just mild enough to keep temperatures above freezing. Medium range models do not point to a colder air mass moving into the region any time soon.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid 40s to the lower 50s. Low to mid 40s
Humidity: Visalia, 30%/95% Bakersfield, 25/80%
Actual Humidity February 7, 2018: Delano, 89%/24%. Porterville, 98%/30%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 70%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 80%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days February 7, 2018: Stratford .NA, Parlier .48, Blackwell .60 Lindcove .54, Arvin .61, Orange Cove .62, Porterville .53, Delano .57., Madera Two .51. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford NA, Parlier 55, Blackwell 56, Lindcove, 57, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 55, Delano 53, Madera Two 53
7.2
Record Temperatures: 74/28. Average Temperatures: 60/37
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1345, -517 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for February so far, 57.1 +8.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.64 season. or -4.54. Month to Date: .00
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.10, or -2.33, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 718, Parlier, 746, Arvin, 684, Shafter, 817, Stratford, 743, Madera two, 1214, Lindcove, 878, Porterville, 1182. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:53 am Sunset: 5:33 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:38
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 77 / 42 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 76 / 45 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 77 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 75 / 43 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 78 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 74 / 43 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1553 / 76 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 76 / 43 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1551 / 75 / 50 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 75 / 45 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.99 49 13.98 172 8.15 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.55 48 11.54 157 7.33 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.29 34 11.35 171 6.65 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.55 23 10.15 154 6.61 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.64 27 10.53 170 6.18 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.78 32 7.38 134 5.52 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 32 6.14 179 3.43 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 7 6.57 229 2.87 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 2.51 35 10.43 146 7.16 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.30 33 12.29 174 7.05 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.02 27 12.20 162 7.53 13.95
Next Report: Friday, February 9/pm