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Forecast

February 10, 2018/pm report

February 10, 2018

Summary:  Gone is the warm air inversion which has kept the valley capped for so long.  Northwesterly winds are currently moving down the valley, generally at about 5 to 15 MPH from Fresno southward.  Along the west side have been some decent gusts.  At last report the Lemoore Naval Air Station was reporting gusts to 31 MPH.  the weak wave of low pressure that quickly moved through this morning is now moving southeastward out of the area.

 

Our attention is now turned to another stronger system which will drive southward out of western Canada and into northern California Monday then into central California by Tuesday morning.  One model tracks this storm right down the spine of the Sierra Nevada while others show it tracking right overhead or even just off shore.  Any of these paths could conceivably generate a few light showers, especially over the mountains but even over the valley floor would not be a shock.  Despite this, most locations will likely remain dry.

 

By Wednesday morning, the low will be parked off the southern California coast.  Models continue to indicate this system could tap into the subtropics then move that moisture into southern California Wednesday through about Friday morning.  There is a slight chance Kern County could see showers as a result, but that may be a stretch.

 

Later Friday, the low will weaken rapidly and move into the Desert Southwest by Friday evening, ending any chance of showers.  As you might expect, temperatures will be much cooler this coming week than we’ve been accustomed to lately.  Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will struggle into the upper 50s to the lower 60s and there’s even a chance of isolated frost Sunday and Monday mornings.  More below.

 

The forecast going out two weeks is indicating the chance of precipitation will be very low with temperatures again rising to above average values.

 

Forecast: Other than periods of high clouds at times,  it will be mostly clear through Monday morning.  Increasing cloudiness Monday afternoon leading to a small chance of light showers Monday night through Tuesday evening.  Partly cloudy Wednesday and Thursday.  Becoming mostly clear Thursday night through Saturday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 35/67/33/60 Reedley 33/67/32/61 Dinuba 34/68/33/60
Porterville 34/68/33/60 Lindsay 33/68/32/61 Delano 37/67/34/60
Bakersfield 42/68/40/61 Arvin 38/68/36/60 Taft 43/67/40/61
Lamont 38/68/37/61 Pixley 37/68/34/60 Tulare 34/68/32/61
Woodlake 35/68/33/60 Hanford 34/67/33/61 Orosi 34/68/33/60

 

Winds: Winds will be generally out of the northwest tonight through Sunday at 5 to 10 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH along the far west side.  Winds Sunday night and Monday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH possible along the west side.  Winds Tuesday will be out of the north to northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts.

 

Rain: There remains a small chance of light showers from Monday night through Tuesday night.  models have three separate possible paths for a low to follow from the north.  They range from right over the Sierra Nevada to just off the central coast.  One model shows the low moving  right overhead.  All of these solutions have one thing in common and that is the fact that this system will be very moisture starved, so only a slight chance of light showers will occur and if they do, amounts would range from a few hundredths to no more than a tenth of an inch.  By early Wednesday, the low will be off the southern California coast, ending the chance of precipitation.  We will still have to watch this system through early Friday as some models still indicate this system could tap into the subtropics and move light showers into southern California late Wednesday night through Thursday night.  one model brings a chance of precipitation as far north as Kern County.  Later Friday, the storm will jet off eastward into Arizona and points eastward and will weaken.  Expect dry weather next weekend and possibly all of the following week.

 

Frost Discussion: It is possible wind sheltered low lying locations along the east side of Fresno and Tulare Counties could dip into the lower 30s both tonight and again Sunday night.  for now, it does not appear this air mass will be cold enough for anything serious to occur.  Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will have plenty of cloud cover, keeping conditions above freezing then.  It does not look like the air mass behind a low pressure system which will be off the southern California coast Thursday will be cold enough to mention the word frost.  Moderation of the air mass will begin to occur over the weekend, maintaining acceptable temperatures which will likely last through the following week.

 

Next Report: Sunday morning, February 11