February 12, 2018
Summary: The center of circulation of a cold upper low is just to the north of Yosemite this morning. Doppler radar is depicting light snow showers over the mountains from Madera County northward and increasing clouds over the northern portion of the valley. In the south valley, considerable low level clouds, or upslope clouds, have developed along the mountains of Tulare and Kern Counties due to a northerly flow wrapping around the west side of this system. The center of circulation by late this afternoon should be over Fresno County, giving the valley the minimal possibility of a few light showers this afternoon through Tuesday morning. By Tuesday evening, this tricky little system will be off the central coast then will drift southward to just west of Los Angeles Wednesday night. it will then head eastward and weaken Thursday.
The pool of air around the center of this low is quite cold and will move the snow level down to 3,000 to 4,000 feet by this evening. There is also a chance of local frost the next couple of mornings where winds settle down and skies clear. More on that below.
From Wednesday on, conditions will be dry as the eastern Pacific high moves eastward into the western one-fourth of the U.S. by Friday. However, the flow aloft will remain north/northwest, keeping a relatively cool air mass in place so temperatures should be fairly close to seasonal average, perhaps marginally above by Saturday and Sunday. By Monday, the high will again drift further out to sea. The jet stream will flank around the top of the high way into southern Alaska then due south along the west coast. This will pump more cold air into the region next week. Interestingly enough, a couple of models show a spring frost pattern about the 19th through the 21st. The upside to this is we’re into the time of year where temperatures generally don’t dip to readings we might have in December or January. Nevertheless, this is something we’ll keep a close eye on.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness through Tuesday with a small chance of isolated light showers this afternoon through Tuesday morning. Partly cloudy Tuesday night. becoming mostly clear Wednesday and on through Monday of next week.
Short Term:
| Madera 56/33/60/32/63 | Reedley 56/32/62/32/62 | Dinuba 56/33/62/32/63 | |
| Porterville 57/33/62/32/63 | Lindsay 58/32/61/32/63 | Delano 58/34/61/33/62 | |
| Bakersfield 58/42/62/41/64 | Arvin 56/36/62/35/63 | Taft 57/41/61/41/63 | |
| Lamont 58/34/62/34/63 | Pixley 57/34/64/32/63 | Tulare 56/32/62/32/62 | |
| Woodlake 57/33/61/32/62 | Hanford 57/33/62/32/63 | Orosi 57/32/60/31/62 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 34/63 |
Friday
Mostly clear 33/66 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 37/68 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 39/67 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 36/59 |
Two Week Outlook: February 18 through February 24: This model shows a considerable amount of cold air diving into the Pacific Northwest then into the interior west with some of this air spilling into California. This would favor at least marginally below average temperatures, but with a blocking ridge off shore precipitation continues to be doubtful.
February: This model doesn’t really grasp at any particular pattern through the month. In fact, central California, if you believe this model, should have temperatures close to seasonal values with near average precipitation, as well.
February, March, April: This model goes all the way through April and it is calling for a ridge of upper level high pressure off the southern California coast to be the most dominant, but not the only, feature during the spring months. If this model has any credence at all, temperatures should be marginally above average with below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be out of the northwest today at 10 to 15 MPH at times with local gusts to 25 MPH along the west side. Winds tonight will decrease to 5 to 10 MPH, mainly out of the northwest, becoming light during the early morning hours. Winds Tuesday will continue out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, decreasing Tuesday night with generally light winds Wednesday and Thursday.
Rain: In all likelihood, most of the valley will remain dry from this system due to the lack of moisture supply around the cold upper level low. The center of circulation with this system should be right over Fresno County this afternoon, so it is a good idea to keep a low chance of sprinkles or light showers in the forecast through Tuesday morning. The low will actually drift off shore Tuesday morning far enough to take showers out of the forecast. By Thursday, the system will quickly move eastward to our south for the beginning of what may be a prolonged period of dry weather. there is some question in my mind for the period beginning Monday of next week as a cold pattern will set up with a northerly flow aloft. Theoretically, embedded within this flow will be weak disturbances which could conceivably result in showers. For now, though, we’ll go with a dry forecast for that period, adopting a wait and see attitude.
Frost: The coldest locations overnight dipped into the lower 30s with mid to upper 30s being the average. The center of a cold pool of air associated with an upper low is just to our north and will move over the valley this afternoon. It’s quite possible lows could be all over the place tonight due to cloud and wind conditions. Suffice it to say, where it does clear, temperatures could fall into the low 30s with even a small chance of short durations in the upper 20s in the low spots. That same rule of thumb will apply to Wednesday morning. By Wednesday, there should be a great deal less cloud cover and wind, so it would appear to be a low to mid 30s night with a slight chance of brief durations in the upper 20s in river bottom type locations. We should begin to see slow moderation Thursday and beyond, but lows will still be below average. Models for the period beginning the nineteenth are hinting at a possible cold several days as a high builds northward along the west coast and ridges into western Canada, creating a northeast flow from central California to the west coast. This is still way out there, so much can and probably will change on model information, but I definitely though it was worth mentioning this morning. We’ll just have to wait and see what trends, if any, turn up on models.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
AF |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
AF |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
AF |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
AF |
Delano
AF |
North Bakersfield
AF |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
AF |
Jasmine
AF |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
AF |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
AF |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
AF |
| Kite Road South
AF |
Kite Road North
AF |
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Low to mid 30s.
Humidity: Visalia, 55%/100% Bakersfield, 50/85%
Actual Humidity February 10, 2018: Delano, 84%/41%. Porterville, 94%/40%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 40% tomorrow 50%, Bakersfield: Today 30% tomorrow 40%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days February 10, 2018: Stratford .NA, Parlier .59, Blackwell .70 Lindcove .60, Arvin .70, Orange Cove .69, Porterville .60, Delano .65., Madera Two .55. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford NA, Parlier 57, Blackwell 57, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 56, Delano 54, Madera Two 54
7.2
Record Temperatures: 73/28. Average Temperatures: 61/38
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1361, -541 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for February so far, 57.8 +9.3
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.64 season. or -4.75. Month to Date: .00
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.10, or -2.46, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 732, Parlier, 756, Arvin, 685, Shafter, 827, Stratford, 760, Madera two, 1243, Lindcove, 890, Porterville, 1202. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:50 am Sunset: 5:36 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:44
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 69 / 36 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 69 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 69 / 37 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 71 / 33 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 72 / 40 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 68 / 38 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1554 / 71 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 70 / 39 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1554 / 67 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.99 47 15.53 182 8.51 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.55 46 12.52 163 7.66 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.29 33 12.21 175 6.97 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.55 22 11.74 170 6.89 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.64 25 11.11 172 6.46 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.78 31 7.76 135 5.76 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 31 6.59 183 3.60 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 7 6.65 223 2.98 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 2.51 33 11.31 151 7.50 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.30 31 12.84 174 7.39 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.02 25 12.88 162 7.94 13.95
Next Report: Monday, February 12/pm