February 14, 2018
Summary: The cold upper low off the southern California coast has drifted further south while the leading edge of the next dry wave of low pressure is moving into northern California. The southern low will move quickly eastward through northern Baja and far southern California tonight and Thursday morning. The clouds from that system have already moved to our south and southeast while high clouds are beginning to show up from that system to our north.
Temperatures will be somewhat cooler tomorrow as yet another shot of colder air moves down the valley. As pressures fall over the interior, gusty winds will set up tomorrow along the west side and locally elsewhere. By Friday, the eastern Pacific high will bulge into California beginning a short term warming trend which will last through Sunday. Beginning Sunday night and Monday, a new low with its origins in Canada will drop rapidly southward into northern and central California. This system appears dry, also, with the possible exception of the Kern County mountains and the Sierra Nevada which could observe some scattered light showers, mainly Monday and Monday night. Even though the bulk of the energy with this feature will dive into the Great Basin, colder air will overspread California with possible frost concerns as early as Monday morning and a greater risk Tuesday and Wednesday. More in the frost discussion below.
The new two week model out this afternoon is actually calling for near average precipitation, something I haven’t seen for a while. Hopefully some precipitation will enter the picture, perhaps during the last week of the month as we are obviously way overdue.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy tonight and Thursday. Mostly clear Thursday night through Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night through Tuesday. Becoming mostly clear Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 33/59/30/63 | Reedley 33/60/30/64 | Dinuba 32/59/29/63 | |
| Porterville 33/60/30/64 | Lindsay 32/59/29/63 | Delano 34/59/32/64 | |
| Bakersfield 38/60/35/65 | Arvin 37/61/33/65 | Taft 40/60/37/65 | |
| Lamont 35/61/32/64 | Pixley 33/59/30/63 | Tulare 31/59/29/63 | |
| Woodlake 32/60/29/64 | Hanford 33/60/30/64 | Orosi 32/59/29/63 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH tonight. Winds Thursday will increase out of the northwest to 5 to 15 MPH with gusts to 25 to 30 MPH along the west side. Winds Thursday night will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts along the west side. Winds Friday and Saturday will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next seven to ten days.
Frost Discussion: Due to an incoming wave of low pressure at the upper levels of the atmosphere, there will be a mix of high clouds with periods of near clear skies tonight. Most of the energy from this system will dive southward just to the east of the Sierra Nevada, but as the far western side of the trough moves through later tonight and Thursday morning, there should be enough cloud cover and mixing to keep temperatures in the low to mid 30s with a small chance of upper 20s, mainly in eastern Fresno and Tulare Counties. There’s a chance Friday morning will be a bit colder as all indications are that skies will be mostly clear. Dew points will also marginally come down, allowing many locations to dip into the lower 30s with the typical low lying locations in the upper 20s. On Saturday and Sunday, high pressure will be taking over and temperatures will moderate into the mid to upper 30s with cold spots in the lower 30s. a new low with its origins in western Canada will drop rapidly southward into California Sunday night and Monday. The exact path of this system is still fairly unclear, but I’m leaning towards most of the coldest air remaining east of the Sierra Nevada. Even so, some cold air will filter into our region with possible upper 20s and lower 30s, especially Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Slow moderation will occur after that as upper level high pressure begins to take over. It now appears the last week of February may actually see a chance of showers, especially towards the end of the month. The two week model is indicating marginally below average temperatures, which could mean more mid to upper 30s with frost being in the low chance category.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
33 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
AF |
Tea Pot Dome
33 |
| Lindsay
32 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
AF |
Madera
33 |
| Belridge
AF |
Delano
AF |
North Bakersfield
AF |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
AF |
Jasmine
31 |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
AF |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
34 |
Tivy Valley
32 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
30 |
Next Report: Thursday morning/February 15