February 17, 2018
Summary: The leading edge of the cloud deck from a strong but cold and moisture starved low pressure system has entered northern California. This leading edge will become an interesting weather pattern for California. Models show a cold front driving down the valley Sunday night and early Monday with a chance of snow showers over the Sierra Nevada and Kern County mountains with a small chance of showers over the valley floor. Snow could fall to 1,000 to 2,000 feet.
The front will be marked by strong, gusty northwest winds which will issue in a very cold air mass for this time of year. Models are pointing to conditions being a tad milder than earlier but colder locations still could end up with some damage.
Skies will clear Monday night with the possible exception of upslope clouds against the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains. Even that may be a stretch, however, as dew points by Tuesday morning should drop into the low to mid 20s with much lower dew points over the mountain areas. Much more is discussed below.
Wednesday and Thursday will also be cold but with some possible moderation each day. Generally, for much of the week there will be a north/south flow from western Canada into California. Embedded within this flow will be weak, dry disturbances which will largely go unnoticed, but they will reinforce the below average temperatures through the weekend.
Models for next week again appear dry with below average temperatures as more of a northwesterly flow develops along the eastern side of high pressure off shore.
Forecast: Mostly clear tonight. Increasing cloudiness Sunday. Variable cloudiness Sunday night and Monday, becoming windy and much cooler. Mostly clear Monday night and on through the rest of next week. Expect much colder nights beginning Monday night.
Short Term:
| Madera 34/63/33/53 | Reedley 33/63/33/52 | Dinuba 33/63/32/52 | |
| Porterville 34/65/34/53 | Lindsay 33/65/33/53 | Delano 34/66/34/54 | |
| Bakersfield 39/65/35/55 | Arvin 36/66/34/54 | Taft 41/66/38/55 | |
| Lamont 37/65/34/53 | Pixley 33/65/32/52 | Tulare 32/64/32/53 | |
| Woodlake 33/65/32/52 | Hanford 34/65/34/53 | Orosi 33/65/32/53 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH tonight then will increase Sunday out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds will increase further to 15 to 30 with gusts over 40 along the west side Sunday night and Monday. Winds will decrease Monday evening and become light after midnight with light winds continuing Tuesday and Wednesday.
Rain: Clouds will begin to increase Sunday ahead of a strong but very moisture starved cold front which will move down the valley Sunday night. models are suggesting there’s a little better chance of light snow showers over the Sierra and the Kern County mountains with snow possibly down to 1,000 to 2,000 feet Monday. Any shower activity over the valley floor will be very light and very widely scattered. Many locations will receive no measurable rain whatsoever. If there is any measurable precipitation, it will range from just a few hundredths to about a tenth, though I believe that’s a stretch. Dry weather will return Monday night and continue for the remainder of the week and well into the following week.
Frost Discussion: Models are showing slightly milder conditions for Tuesday through Thursday mornings. One model has Porterville down to 28 degrees Tuesday morning while others come in at an average of 27. If this is reasonably accurate, coldest locations would be down to at least 23 degrees with most other locations in the mid to upper 20s. for now, I don’t believe cloud cover will play much of a role in this event. Dew points will fall to the low to mid 20s on the valley floor with much lower dew points over the mountains, making it more difficult for clouds to form. Hopefully models will trend a bit milder than currently forecast, but judging from the cloud patterns in western Canada and the Pacific Northwest, there is definitely a signature of cold Arctic air diving south.
Models for Wednesday morning are trying to bring temperatures up by 2 to 3 degrees but I’m skeptical of this as I don’t believe dew points will rise enough. I do look for perhaps 2 to 3 degrees of improvement Thursday, but that still puts frost pockets down to 26 or so.
From Friday through Sunday, the chilly air mass will continue to be reinforced by invisible waves of low pressure which have literally no moisture associated with them. But, with a north/northwest flow driving them southward, below average temperatures will continue with readings over the weekend possibly in the upper 20s to the low 30s.
Next week also looks dry but with a northwest flow which will be a bit milder. My feeling at this point is low to mid 30s would be a good bet.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
AF |
Porterville
AF |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
AF |
Tea Pot Dome
AF |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
AF |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
AF |
Delano
AF |
North Bakersfield
AF |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
AF |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
AF |
Jasmine
AF |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
AF |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
AF |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
AF |
| Kite Road South
AF |
Kite Road North
AF |
Next Report: Sunday morning/February 18