Summary: Temperatures are below freezing over the Pacific Northwest down to the beaches. Snow showers are occurring along the coast with isolated snow showers over the Coast Range with snow on the hills just above Monterey Bay. There are also light snow showers occurring over the Sierra Nevada and I noted the freezing level above Vandenberg earlier this morning was 3,500 feet. It’s likely lower than that by now.
Today will be a rather blustery day as a big Arctic trough of low pressure over the west has barometric pressure considerably lower over the interior west than they are off shore. As a result, gusty winds will continue for the remainder of the day with possible gusts to 40 MPH along the west side and 15 to 25 MPH elsewhere.
Skies are mostly clear to partly cloudy over the valley floor. Radar at this hour was picking up on a light shower south of Fresno.
In the overall picture, we have a classic freeze configuration. Strong upper level high pressure just off shore has built a ridge all the way up into Alaska while an Arctic trough of low pressure engulfs the western U.S. due to a north/south pattern in the winds aloft. This pattern will continue to pump modified Arctic air into the valley. Widespread mid to upper 20s is likely tonight, possibly even colder in some locations. This, of course, is detailed in the frost summary below..
A new and cold upper low will drive southward, arriving in central California Thursday night and Friday. There may be a chance of light showers with this system, at least models are hinting at a decent chance of snow showers over the mountains with light snow down into the foothills. By the time we get to Saturday through Monday, the winds aloft will actually be out of the west/northwest which is a much milder scenario.
Next week, for now anyway, does not appear nearly as cold as the pipeline of modified
Arctic air will be cut off by that northwest to southeast oriented jet stream.
Forecast: partly cloudy today with a small chance of a few isolated showers. Mostly clear tonight through Wednesday night and cold. Increasing cloudiness later Thursday with a chance of scattered light showers Thursday night and Friday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 52/25/55/25/56 | Reedley 53/26/54/26/57 | Dinuba 52/23/53/25/57 | |
| Porterville 54/26/55/26/58 | Lindsay 54/24/54/25/58 | Delano 53/26/55/27/57 | |
| Bakersfield 53/29/55/31/58 | Arvin 52/27/54/27/59 | Taft 53/28/55/30/58 | |
| Lamont 52/27/55/27/59 | Pixley 52/25/55/26/58 | Tulare 53/24/55/25/57 | |
| Woodlake 53/25/55/26/58 | Hanford 53/25/55/26/57 | Orosi 52/24/54/26/57 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
PM showers possible 30/57 |
Friday
Chance of showers 35/54 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 30/60 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 35/63 |
Monday
Mostly clear 35/66 |
Two Week Outlook: February 20 through February 27 This model indicates a possibly broad area of low pressure will be over and along the west coast. There is a chance that Pacific storms may move into California from the Gulf of Alaska. Temperatures should range somewhat below seasonal norms.
February: This model doesn’t really grasp at any particular pattern through the month. In fact, central California, if you believe this model, should have temperatures close to seasonal values with near average precipitation, as well.
February, March, April: This model goes all the way through April and it is calling for a ridge of upper level high pressure off the southern California coast to be the most dominant, but not the only, feature during the spring months. If this model has any credence at all, temperatures should be marginally above average with below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be out of the northwest today at 15 to 25 MPH at times with local gusts to 40 MPH possible along the west side. Winds will diminish this evening and generally become less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Thursday.
Rain: There is a small chance of an isolated shower or two over the valley floor, mainly this morning, but the vast majority of locations will remain dry. There appears to be a greater risk of light showers Thursday night and Friday as another semi Arctic low pressure system dives southward. On models, this system’s track is partially over water, so that would give one more optimism on the chance of showers. If it does rain, by some miracle, only light amounts would be expected. Dry weather will return Friday night and more than likely will last all of next week. Models continue to point towards a possible change to wet weather around the 26 or 27, so we’ll see.
Frost: Tonight is the night we’ve been fearing for a while. Models and my instincts tell the story of widespread mid to upper 20s tonight with readings in river bottom and like locations down to 22 to 24 with possible durations of 8 hours or more.
The winds currently blowing down the valley will die off rapidly as the sun sets. However, there may be enough breeze on the west side to hold temperatures up there. Even that, though, may die off during the early morning hours.
The inversion tonight will be weak with temperatures at 34 feet about 2 to 4 degrees warmer. That will marginally improve for Wednesday morning.
I do feel there will be at least minor moderation Thursday morning as a low pressure system, also semi Arctic in nature, drives southward and possibly brings clouds over the area. Thursday night and Friday morning even have a chance of showers which would at least hold minimum temperatures in the upper 30s to perhaps even the lower 40s.
Over the weekend, a fundamental change in the pattern will occur as winds eventually become out of the northwest aloft and by Monday will be out of the west/southwest. This is a much milder pattern.
We could see coldest locations below freezing Saturday, but probably nothing to worry about. From Sunday and beyond, lows will be above freezing.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
25 |
Porterville
26 |
Ivanhoe
25 |
Woodlake
26 |
| Strathmore
24 |
McFarland
25 |
Ducor
26 |
Tea Pot Dome
26 |
| Lindsay
25 |
Exeter
24 |
Famoso
27 |
Madera
25 |
| Belridge
26 |
Delano
26 |
North Bakersfield
27 |
Orosi
24 |
| Orange Cove
25 |
Lindcove
24 |
Lindcove Hillside
31 |
Sanger River Bottom
22 |
| Root Creek
24 |
Venice Hill
25 |
Rosedale
26 |
Jasmine
25 |
| Arvin
28 |
Lamont
26 |
Plainview
25 |
Mettler
29 |
| Edison
27 |
Maricopa
26 |
Holland Creek
28 |
Tivy Valley
25 |
| Kite Road South
28 |
Kite Road North
26 |
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Kern, Low to mid 30s.
Humidity: Visalia, 25%/90% Bakersfield, 25%/80%
Actual Humidity February 17, 2018: Delano, 82%/22%. Porterville, 92%/24%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 80%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 90%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days February 17, 2018: Stratford .77, Parlier .62, Blackwell .72 Lindcove .60, Arvin .75, Orange Cove .70, Porterville .64, Delano .68., Madera Two NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 54, Blackwell 57, Lindcove, 56, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 54, Delano 53, Madera Two 54
7.2
Record Temperatures: 84/27. Average Temperatures: 63/39
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1455, -558 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for February so far, 55.1 +5.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.64 season. or -5.25. Month to Date: .00
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.10, or -2.77, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 803, Parlier, 825, Arvin, 721, Shafter, 880, Stratford, 822, Madera two, 1336, Lindcove, 951, Porterville, 1276. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:42 am Sunset: 5:43 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:58
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 65 / 39 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 67 / 43 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 69 / 37 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 67 / 35 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 73 / 42 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 68 / 40 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1556 / 65 / 40 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 71 / 38 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 72 / 49 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.99 44 15.67 171 9.14 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.55 43 12.94 157 8.24 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.29 30 12.80 170 7.55 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.55 21 12.44 167 7.44 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.64 24 11.96 172 6.96 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.78 29 8.65 139 6.22 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 28 6.97 178 3.91 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 6 7.61 238 3.20 5.18
SALINAS T 2.51 31 12.44 153 8.11 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.30 29 14.12 176 8.01 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.02 23 15.38 177 8.69 13.95
Next Report: Monday, February 19/pm