February 20, 2018
Summary: The coldest locations in the valley this morning fell to 21 degrees, this was at three separate locations with most locations huddled in the mid 20s. tonight’s forecast is a bit more complex than I’d like. A dry low pressure system is currently centered near Crescent City and will move southward and eventually eastward through central and southern California. I’ve been watching the satellite loop this afternoon and a lot of high, thin cirrus clouds ahead of this system are simply evaporating when they more into the northern San Joaquin Valley. There are more clouds moving into northern California, so the question of the hour is whether this mid and high level clouds will hang together enough to do us any good later tonight.
Without the clouds, many locations will again be in the mid to upper 20s. If clouds do happen to bless us, lows would probably be in the 28 to 33 degree range. For this forecast, as usual, I’m going to lean on the low side.
The same basic pattern is still very much in place with a massive high off sure jutting northward into Alaska and a huge Arctic trough of low pressure over the western third of the U.S. We continue to be sandwiched in between with a northerly flow moving periodic batches of cold air down from the north.
Once we get to Thursday afternoon and night, a stronger system will arrive. This will be somewhat over water just off shore so there will be a greater chance of generating some light showers even over the valley floor. This storm, like the previous one, is very cold so anticipate snow levels down to 1,000 to 2,000 feet Thursday night and early Friday. We could see sub freezing temperatures as early as Friday morning if skies clear out, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see readings in the 26 to 31 degree range Saturday morning.
A west/northwest flow aloft will develop Sunday, moving milder air in aloft. That should put an end to this nonsense for a while, however another system will dive southward about Tuesday for a chance of showers with colder air associated with this feature, as well. The new two week model indicates there’s a fairly high risk of showers and below average temperatures continuing. This model encompasses February 27 through March 5.
Forecast: Mostly clear with high clouds possibly mixing in later tonight. Mostly clear Wednesday through Thursday morning. Increasing cloudiness Thursday afternoon with light showers becoming likely late Thursday afternoon through early Friday and snow down to 1,000 to 2,000 feet. Mostly clear Friday afternoon through Sunday night. Partly cloudy Monday then clouds increasing Monday night with a chance of showers Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 27/58/30/56 | Reedley 26/59/31/56 | Dinuba 25/57/30/55 | |
| Porterville 26/58/31/57 | Lindsay 26/60/30/58 | Delano 28/60/32/58 | |
| Bakersfield 30/59/34/58 | Arvin 28/60/32/58 | Taft 31/59/35/57 | |
| Lamont 29/59/33/58 | Pixley 26/58/31/58 | Tulare 25/57/31/56 | |
| Woodlake 26/58/30/57 | Hanford 27/59/32/57 | Orosi 25/58/31/57 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions tonight through Wednesday night. Winds will increase out of the northwest Thursday to 15 to 25 MPH at times with stronger gusts along the west side, continuing into Friday morning. Winds will decrease Friday afternoon.
Rain: The next chance of rain will arrive late Thursday afternoon into early Friday. A very cold upper low will sink southward from western Canada, however part of the low will be over water which will give this system enough moisture for light showers up and down the valley with snow down to 1,000 to 2,000 feet. Dry weather will return Friday afternoon and continue through Monday. Models are all over the place on how to handle the next rain maker which, theoretically, will arrive Tuesday. For now we’ll just put this in the chance category, but even a chance of rain this winter is better than nothing.
Frost Discussion: Tonight will be a tricky forecast. Dew points this afternoon are generally in the mid to upper 20s, just a tad higher than yesterday afternoon. The key to tonight’s forecast is a weak, dry upper low currently moving through northern California. The first batch of high clouds from this system literally evaporated over the northern San Joaquin Valley, however there are more mid and high level clouds moving into northern California. The question will be whether or not this cloud cover will actually make it into the valley with evaporating. This system also could create some mixing, which would certainly be a benefit. But all of these are complexities with difficulty to discern.
For this forecast, I will operate under the assumption that these clouds will be dead on arrival. If this does turn out to be the case, widespread mid to upper 20s will be likely with the coldest unprotected river bottom locations down to 24 to 25 or so. If these clouds do struggle into central California, overnight lows would be moderated with lows generally in the 28 to 34 degree range.
The inversion tonight will be a bit better, unless mixing occurs which would have the tendency of breaking up the inversion. For now, we’ll go with temperatures 3 to 5 degrees warmer at 34 feet.
Potential durations in the very coldest, unprotected locations could be around 8 to 9 hours. Last night, the cold spots were at or below 28 for 10 to 11 hours.
We should begin to see moderation Thursday morning as the next weather system takes aim at central California. Lows will likely range from 28 to 34, even under mostly clear skies as the air mass will be moderating somewhat. The moderation will be short lived as the next Arctic low moves rapidly through the area late Thursday afternoon through early Friday with a chance of light showers and snow down to 1,000 to 2,000 feet. That poses another interesting forecast for Friday morning as the air will be quite cold. Depending on exactly when Thursday night’s clouds exit, lows could fall into the 28 to 33 degree range. There’s a greater risk Saturday as the air mass will remain cold and will have generally settled down. On Saturday morning, I wouldn’t be surprised to see lows from 26 to 32. By Sunday, we should finally see some real moderation as winds become west/northwest with possible low to mid 30s. Monday and Tuesday will, in all likelihood, be above freezing with an increase in cloud cover and air mass modification. There will be a chance of showers again Tuesday, keeping temperatures above freezing.
Temperatures the rest of next week will be below average, but for now I don’t see anything dangerous.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
26 |
Porterville
26 |
Ivanhoe
26 |
Woodlake
27 |
| Strathmore
26 |
McFarland
27 |
Ducor
27 |
Tea Pot Dome
26 |
| Lindsay
25 |
Exeter
25 |
Famoso
28 |
Madera
26 |
| Belridge
26 |
Delano
27 |
North Bakersfield
28 |
Orosi
26 |
| Orange Cove
27 |
Lindcove
26 |
Lindcove Hillside
32 |
Sanger River Bottom
22 |
| Root Creek
25 |
Venice Hill
27 |
Rosedale
28 |
Jasmine
27 |
| Arvin
28 |
Lamont
28 |
Plainview
26 |
Mettler
30 |
| Edison
27 |
Maricopa
27 |
Holland Creek
30 |
Tivy Valley
27 |
| Kite Road South
30 |
Kite Road North
26 |
Next Report: Approximately 10:00pm