February 20, 2018
Summary: Widespread mid to upper 20s were prevalent through all of the ag stations as of 6:30 this morning. There were also some low 20s which will be discussed below in the frost section, but in some cases, once you get away from the central and west side of the valley, some locations dipped as low as 21. This means an isolated location or two could have dipped into the upper teens.
Clear skies prevailed last night, leading to a strong radiational cooling event. The north to south winds aloft pattern is still very much in place as a strong high runs north to south with the northern fringe of the system up in the northwest Yukon Territory and Alaska. In the meantime, an Arctic trough of low pressure continues to be parked over the interior west with the north/south pipeline of air continuing to flow through California.
The next low pressure system is very weak and is currently just off the Oregon coast. It will weaken further as it heads into central California tonight. This may actually benefit the freeze situation with the emphasis on the word “may”. High clouds should spread over the area during the night and some mixing may even occur. Clouds will increase Thursday ahead of another semi Arctic low. Models continue to spell out the fact that this system will probably have more moisture associated with it than its predecessors. When the storm arrives Thursday night and early Friday, light showers will spread down the valley with snow in the mountains down to 1,000 to 2,000 feet. Another shot of modified Arctic air will follow this system with sub freezing temperatures, possibly Saturday morning. I don’t, however, see the dangerous type of temperatures we’re observing this morning.
By Sunday, a west/northwest flow aloft will move into California as the northern portion of that off shore ridge breaks down. This may bring precipitation back to central California about Monday or Tuesday, although models do vary on the timing and strength of this system. In the longer term, models are still painting some possible storms moving out of the Gulf of Alaska from the 26th through the 28th, and possibly even through March 1.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies and continued cold today. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy tonight and Wednesday morning. Mostly clear Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Increasing cloudiness by Thursday afternoon with light showers spreading down the valley from north to south Thursday night and early Friday. Partly cloudy Friday night. Becoming mostly clear Saturday through Sunday night. Increasing cloudiness Monday leading to a chance of showers Monday night and Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 53/26/57/29/55 | Reedley 54/27/61/29/55 | Dinuba 54/25/61/29/54 | |
| Porterville 55/26/59/29/54 | Lindsay 54/26/61/29/54 | Delano 55/27/60/31/55 | |
| Bakersfield 54/30/60/34/55 | Arvin 53/28/60/32/56 | Taft 55/29/58/37/56 | |
| Lamont 54/28/59/33/56 | Pixley 54/26/58/31/55 | Tulare 53/26/58/31/54 | |
| Woodlake 54/26/58/29/54 | Hanford 54/27/59/31/55 | Orosi 54/26/58/29/54 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
AM showers possible 30/53 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 29/59 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 31/60 |
Monday
Increasing clouds 37/61 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 38/61 |
Two Week Outlook: February 20 through February 27 This model indicates a possibly broad area of low pressure will be over and along the west coast. There is a chance that Pacific storms may move into California from the Gulf of Alaska. Temperatures should range somewhat below seasonal norms.
February: This model doesn’t really grasp at any particular pattern through the month. In fact, central California, if you believe this model, should have temperatures close to seasonal values with near average precipitation, as well.
February, March, April: This model goes all the way through April and it is calling for a ridge of upper level high pressure off the southern California coast to be the most dominant, but not the only, feature during the spring months. If this model has any credence at all, temperatures should be marginally above average with below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Wednesday night. By Thursday night through Friday, winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH possible along the west side.
Rain: Expect dry weather through Thursday. There is a good chance of light showers spreading down the valley Thursday night and early Friday. This will be another very cold system with plenty of modified Arctic air associated with it, driving snow levels down to 1,000 to 2,000 feet. Most locations will probably measure no more than a tenth of an inch with this event, but at least it’s something. Friday afternoon through Monday will be dry then a system will roll out of the Gulf of Alaska Monday night and Tuesday with rain for northern California and possibly central California. Dry weather should return by Wednesday.
Frost: Growers in various areas last night no doubt had a real rough time. All locations were at least down into the mid to upper 20s with a spattering of low 20s. Here are readings from roughly about 6:30 this morning. Madera 23, Madera 2 22, Fowler 21, Stone Corral 21, Reedley 23, Exeter 24 and both stations east and west of Porterville dropped to 23. Again, it’s possible a degree or two could be shaved off these stations’ readings before 8:00am.
Tonight, there will be two main challenges. The first will be some high clouds rolling southward ahead of the next disturbance. We should see some generally transparent clouds, but it may be enough to move temperatures upward just a tad. The second concern tonight is mixing of the atmosphere as this little benign system moves through. If we can get some mixing or even some minor wind, it would have a tendency to nudge readings at least out of the critical list.
My feeling is there will again be widespread mid to upper 20s unless these two factors come into play, in which case temperatures would probably be in the upper 20s to the lower 30s.
For tonight, I’ll go for the coldest locations to fall down to 24 to 25 or so with most other locations ranging from 26 to 31.
The inversion tonight will again be weak with temperatures at 34 feet about 3 to 5 degrees warmer.
Durations below 28 degrees in the coldest locations could add up to 7 to 8 hours.
On Thursday morning, it appears readings will be generally in the 27 to 32 degree range. It’s possible increasing cloudiness could arrive in time to modify the situation, but for now it appears to be too little too late. Most if not all locations should be in the low to mid 30s Friday due to heavy cloud cover and showers. Another pool of very cold air will follow this system, so don’t be surprised if we’re back into the 27 to 32 degree range Saturday.
Sunday appears to be the turnaround day as most locations will be in the low to mid 30s and mid to upper 30s Monday. Temperatures Tuesday should range in the upper 30s to the lower 40s due to another Pacific storm which hopefully will affect the area.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
27 |
Porterville
25 |
Ivanhoe
26 |
Woodlake
27 |
| Strathmore
27 |
McFarland
26 |
Ducor
27 |
Tea Pot Dome
26 |
| Lindsay
26 |
Exeter
25 |
Famoso
28 |
Madera
26 |
| Belridge
25 |
Delano
28 |
North Bakersfield
27 |
Orosi
25 |
| Orange cove
26 |
Lindcove
26 |
Lindcove Hillside
32 |
Sanger River Bottom
22 |
| Root Creek
25 |
Venice Hill
26 |
Rosedale
28 |
Jasmine
26 |
| Arvin
27 |
Lamont
27 |
Plainview
26 |
Mettler
30 |
| Edison
27 |
Maricopa
28 |
Holland Creek
30 |
Tivy Valley
26 |
| Kite Road South
30 |
Kite Road North
27 |
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 20s. Kern, Low to mid 20s.
Humidity: Visalia, 25%/85% Bakersfield, 20%/75%
Actual Humidity February 18, 2018: Delano, 75%/24%. Porterville, 83%/27%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 80%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 80%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days February 18, 2018: Stratford .81, Parlier .67, Blackwell .78 Lindcove .63, Arvin .78, Orange Cove .74, Porterville .68, Delano .71., Madera Two NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 54, Blackwell 56, Lindcove, 56, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 54, Delano 53, Madera Two 53
7.2
Record Temperatures: 79/28. Average Temperatures: 63/39
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1467, -561 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for February so far, 55.0 +5.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.64 season. or -5.32. Month to Date: .00
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.10, or -2.81, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 811, Parlier, 834, Arvin, 727, Shafter, 887, Stratford, 831, Madera two, 1336, Lindcove, 959, Porterville, 1284. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:41 am Sunset: 5:45 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:01
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 55 / 29 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 54 / 36 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 55 / 31 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 55 / 31 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 54 / 33 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 53 / 31 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1549 / 52 / 37 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 52 / 32 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 50 / 39 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.99 43 15.73 170 9.23 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.55 43 13.04 157 8.32 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.29 30 12.83 168 7.64 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.55 21 12.50 166 7.52 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.64 23 12.04 171 7.04 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.78 28 8.83 140 6.29 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 28 7.21 182 3.96 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 6 7.61 235 3.24 5.18
SALINAS T 2.51 31 12.44 152 8.20 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.30 28 14.13 174 8.11 12.78
SANTA MARIA T 2.02 23 15.54 176 8.81 13.95
Next Report: Tuesday, February 20/pm