February 22, 2018
Summary: Yet another morning with widespread mid to upper 20s. some of the more fortunate locations only bottomed out at 30 or so as of 6:00am. We again look to our north for incoming weather. Over the Pacific Northwest we find a very cold incoming low. Radar over Washington and Oregon is indicating snow is falling as low as sea level with even a few light snow showers entering into far northern California. Like its predecessors, it will be a fast mover. Clouds will begin to increase later today with even a chance of a few light showers as far south as Fresno County by sunset, spreading southward over the remainder of the valley this evening. Snow levels will again plummet to 1,000 to 2,000 feet in the surrounding mountains, including the Coast Range.
We just can’t seem to break the spine of this basic pattern of an eastern Pacific ridge nosing far to the north into Alaska and that Arctic trough over the interior west. Between these two features is a rapid north/south jet stream steering occasional disturbances southward. Once in a while, one is strong enough for a chance of light showers, and that will be the case tonight into early Friday.
Clearing should happen quickly Friday afternoon as another shot of modified Arctic air moves in behind the low. Sadly, this will set the stage for more subfreezing conditions Saturday and, to a lesser extent, Sunday with more mid to upper 20s, possibly colder in some of the traditional cold spots.
The next in the pipeline will arrive Tuesday. On paper, this one seems to have a greater chance of producing more significant rain, though I wouldn’t anticipate this to be a blockbuster by any means, but rather the light shower variety. Hope springs eternal, however, as models for the first week in March are all pointing to an active pattern with storms moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California. Perhaps we’ll have another March miracle. I wouldn’t count on it, but you never know.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness later today. Variable cloudiness tonight and later Friday with a chance of light, scattered showers. Clearing Friday. Becoming mostly clear Friday afternoon through Sunday night. Mostly clear Monday morning. Increasing clouds Monday afternoon leading to a chance of showers late Monday night and Tuesday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 58/31/53/26/59 | Reedley 58/33/55/26/58 | Dinuba 57/31/53/25/57 | |
| Porterville 59/32/55/26/59 | Lindsay 59/32/55/25/58 | Delano 59/34/54/27/59 | |
| Bakersfield 58/34/53/31/58 | Arvin 59/36/53/28/58 | Taft 59/38/53/30/60 | |
| Lamont 59/35/53/28/59 | Pixley 58/33/53/26/59 | Tulare 57/31/53/25/58 | |
| Woodlake 58/33/53/26/59 | Hanford 58/33/53/26/59 | Orosi 59/32/53/26/58 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 29/60 |
Monday
Increasing clouds 32/58 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 35/57 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 31/62 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 33/62 |
Two Week Outlook: February 28 through March 6: If you’re looking for a milder weather regime, this model is not what you want to look at as well below average temperatures are likely. The good news, however, is this model is also projecting at least a better than even chance of rain.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH this morning, increasing to 10 to 20 MPH later this afternoon and at times through Friday with stronger gusts along the west side. Winds will diminish Friday evening with generally light winds over the weekend.
Rain: The chance of anything significant late today and tonight on the valley floor is about nil. It’s possible scattered light showers could spread down the valley, maybe even reaching Fresno County by sunset, then spreading over the rest of the valley this evening. Amounts, if any, will be less than a tenth of an inch. Dry weather will return by mid morning Friday and continue through Monday. Showers will spread in from the northwest late Monday night and Tuesday. This one has a higher chance of providing somewhat more rain, but it won’t be a significant rain event. There is hope, however, as models for the first week in March are pointing towards a very active pattern with mainly cold weather systems moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California. These storms would travel from northwest to southeast, which has a much greater potential for bringing valley rain with snow in the mountains.
Frost: Well, it happened again last night. That is, widespread mid to upper 20s. some of the coldest locations I could find as of 6:00am were: Madera and wester Porterville at 26, Navalencia, Fowler, and Lindsay all at 25, with numerous locations in the upper 20s to near 30.
We actually have a chance for a somewhat milder night tonight, although I’m by no means eliminating the chance of below freezing temperatures. Clouds will increase by late today with a chance of light showers tonight and early Friday. In theory, this should keep temperatures in the 30s, but just in case, I’m going to forecast mainly the traditional cold spots at or below freezing. There is always a possibility that skies may open up during the night, allowing temperatures to plummet. For now, though, it does appear the risk is slight.
Friday night and Saturday morning do not look good as widespread mid to upper 20s will again be lucky with a few spots possibly down to 22 to 23. The air mass behind the cold front coming through Thursday night is very cold and will sink us into conditions similar to those we’ve been experiencing.
Sunday looks a bit better, but even then temperatures will probably range from 27 to 33 or so and possibly low to mid 30s on Monday. With some luck, we should be above freezing Tuesday due to a storm system that will theoretically have more cloud cover and moisture.
After Tuesday, it appears (keep your fingers crossed) low to mid 30s will be likely with above freezing conditions after.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
33 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
33 |
McFarland
34 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
AF |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
AF |
Delano
AF |
North Bakersfield
AF |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
33 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
AF |
Jasmine
AF |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
AF |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
AF |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
AF |
| Kite Road South
AF |
Kite Road North
AF |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 20s. Kern, Low to mid 20s.
Humidity: Visalia, 25%/85% Bakersfield, 20%/75%
Actual Humidity February 20, 2018: Delano, 80%/22%. Porterville, 89%/23%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 50% tomorrow 40%, Bakersfield: Today 70% tomorrow 40%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days February 20, 2018: Stratford .87, Parlier .73, Blackwell .82 Lindcove .66, Arvin .79, Orange Cove .78, Porterville .69, Delano .72., Madera Two NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 54, Blackwell 56, Lindcove, 55, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 54, Delano 53, Madera Two 53
7.2
Record Temperatures: 77/26. Average Temperatures: 63/40
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1512, -542 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for February so far, 54.8 +5.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.64 season. or -5.47. Month to Date: .00
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.10, or -2.91, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 841, Parlier, 864, Arvin, 753, Shafter, 914, Stratford, 861, Madera two, 1366, Lindcove, 991, Porterville, 1316. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:39 am Sunset: 5:47 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:05
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 58 / 29 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 58 / 33 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 59 / 31 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 58 / 27 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 58 / 31 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 57 / 29 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 57 / 29 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 57 / 29 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1558 / 54 / 35 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 57 / 34 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.99 42 17.64 187 9.41 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.55 42 14.03 165 8.50 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.29 29 13.35 170 7.83 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.55 20 13.08 170 7.70 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.64 23 12.58 175 7.19 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.78 28 9.10 142 6.43 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 27 7.25 179 4.05 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 6 7.80 236 3.30 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 2.51 30 14.20 169 8.39 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.30 28 14.43 174 8.31 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.02 22 15.95 176 9.04 13.95
Next Report: Thursday, February 22/pm