February 23, 2018
Summary: Two elements of the weather are quite evident this afternoon. Number one is that it’s colder than yesterday and number two, it’s breezy. There are also considerable upslope clouds developing against the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada from Tulare County southward and banking up against the valley facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains. The air now surging down the valley is not only cold, but it is also dry. This should sufficiently cause the clouds in the south valley to dissipate so that after the late evening hours, the entire growing area should be relatively clear. There is a chance of some clouds hanging in there in southern Kern County, but that is by no means a given.
Models again look very cold for tonight for this time of year with widespread mid to upper 20s where the winds die off and skies clear. More in the ifs, ands, or buts on all this in the frost discussion below.
The current upper winds are running from north to south, but during the second half of the weekend they will become northwest to southeast, which is a bit milder. The next storm of any consequence will roll from western Canada and quickly into California Monday into Tuesday morning. Part of this system will be over water, so we may have a greater shot at measurable rain. With most of these systems, though, models have overplayed the chance of rain so skepticism is bouncing around in my head.
At any rate, this will also be a cold system, however the air mass sliding southward behind it, even though cold, doesn’t appear to be quite as cold as what we’ve experienced this week. Hopefully, by Friday of next week temperatures will rally and become more seasonal. The two week model, however, out this afternoon is insisting on below average temperatures for the entire western half of the country with a slightly higher chance of precipitation.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies tonight with the exception of portions of Kern County and southeast Tulare County which may remain mostly to partly cloudy through the evening hours. Clearing overnight with the possible exception of near the foothills in Kern County. Mostly clear skies Saturday through Sunday night. Increasing cloudiness Monday with a chance of light showers by midday. A greater potential for light showers Monday afternoon through Monday night. A slight chance of showers early Tuesday morning. Becoming partly cloudy for the remainder of the day. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night with a chance of rain Thursday and a slight chance of lingering showers Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 25/58/29/60 | Reedley 26/59/29/60 | Dinuba 25/58/28/59 | |
| Porterville 26/58/29/60 | Lindsay 25/59/28/59 | Delano 27/58/30/61 | |
| Bakersfield 31/57/33/60 | Arvin 28/57/31/61 | Taft 31/58/35/61 | |
| Lamont 27/58/31/60 | Pixley 26/58/30/60 | Tulare 25/58/29/59 | |
| Woodlake 26/58/29/59 | Hanford 27/59/30/60 | Orosi 26/58/29/60 | |
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest during the evening hours at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts along the west side, diminishing after midnight. Winds Saturday through Sunday night will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Monday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts along the west side.
Rain: The next chance of light rain will arrive Monday, generally in the afternoon. It’s unclear just what path this system will take, but it will be from north to south, partially overwater and partially over land. I don’t anticipate this to be a major event, rather just some scattered light showers through Monday night into early Tuesday. Models with each of these systems this past week have overplayed the precipitation possibility, but they’ve all been duds. It will be interesting to see if the same rule of thumb applies to this system. Dry weather will return for most of Tuesday through Wednesday night then the next upstream low pressure system will arrive Thursday. For now, this system looks as though it will be overwater out of the Gulf of Alaska. This could give us a shot at some legitimate rainfall. My confidence is a bit lower on this one because of model differences, but this year I’m grabbing at anything.
Frost Discussion: Well, here we go again. Another challenging night is at hand. Like most nights twelve to eighteen hours after a front has gone through, conditions will be somewhat chaotic. There is some fairly significant wind this afternoon along the west side, which in some cases is gusting to more than 30 MPH, with winds in general about 5 to 15 MPH elsewhere. These breezes will die off by late evening but there may be local winds and mixing which could, in theory, hold temperatures a tad warmer than I’m forecasting. For now, though, widespread mid to upper 20s appears likely. As of the time of this writing, there was a considerable amount of upslope clouds over Kern County and southeastern Tulare County. My feeling is most if not all of these clouds will mix out tonight as a progressively drier air mass takes over. I will operate under the assumption that we’ll see wall to wall clear skies after midnight.
Coldest riverbottom and like location will chill into the 23 to 24 degree range with most flat terrain regions from 25 to 29. It’s possible temperatures along the west side may be a bit milder if winds stay up. If not, that territory will also drop into the mid to upper 20s. durations at or below 28 could exceed 8 hours again in those unprotected cold spots.
The inversion tonight will be weak with temperatures at 34 feet around 2 to 4 degrees warmer, if you’re lucky.
Coming up Sunday morning, we should see very slightly milder conditions, although readings will still be below freezing at most locations. Coldest locations will be down to 26 or so in coldest locations. Hopefully we will reap the benefits of increasing cloud cover Monday ahead of the next system. If not, more than likely Monday would be an upper 20s to mid 30 situation. The air mass swinging in behind the Monday/Monday night system is cold, but on paper not quite as cold as we’ve experienced this week. Hopefully temperatures will at least be manageable. By Thursday morning, if everything pans out, most locations should be above freezing due to increasing clouds ahead of the next Pacific storm with some modification finally arriving next weekend. Above freezing conditions should prevail by then.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
26 |
Porterville
26 |
Ivanhoe
26 |
Woodlake
27 |
| Strathmore
26 |
McFarland
25 |
Ducor
27 |
Tea Pot Dome
26 |
| Lindsay
25 |
Exeter
25 |
Famoso
28 |
Madera
25 |
| Belridge
26 |
Delano
27 |
North Bakersfield
28 |
Orosi
26 |
| Orange Cove
26 |
Lindcove
25 |
Lindcove Hillside
30 |
Sanger River Bottom
22 |
| Root Creek
24 |
Venice Hill
26 |
Rosedale
28 |
Jasmine
27 |
| Arvin
28 |
Lamont
27 |
Plainview
26 |
Mettler
29 |
| Edison
28 |
Maricopa
27 |
Holland Creek
29 |
Tivy Valley
26 |
| Kite Road South
29 |
Kite Road North
27 |
Next Report: Saturday, February 24