February 23, 2018
Summary: A very fast moving low pressure system zipped through the valley overnight with no precipitation that I know of outside of some light snow showers over the Sierra and over the Kern County mountains. Skies cleared rapidly and are mostly clear as of the time of this writing with the exception of portions of Kern County and southeast Tulare County where upsloping is occurring. The air mass now settling in behind this system is again very cold for this time of year and will lead to another possible hard freeze tonight and, to a lesser extent, Saturday night. Details on this are discussed below.
For the remainder of the day and on through Sunday night, skies will be mostly clear as a weak ridge takes over. However, the main weather pattern will change only marginally over the next 72 hours. Instead of a northerly flow aloft, the flow aloft will become northwesterly. This will allow some warming Saturday through Sunday as highs at the warmer locations Sunday afternoon may actually slip into the lower 60s.
Another cold system will dive southward from western Canada and into California, arriving possibly as early as Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. The chance of light precipitation will spread southward with this storm with light snow falling again into the foothills. The timing and possible strength of this system vary from model to model, but one thing is certain, it will not be a significant precipitation event.
We’ll have yet another storm which should arrive sometime late Wednesday night or Thursday. Models for now are all over the place with this one. Suffice it to say, for now we’ll just go with a chance of rain during this timeframe then narrow it down as we go along.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Sunday night with the exception of mostly cloudy conditions this morning in Kern County and possibly southeastern Tulare County. Increasing cloudiness Monday leading to a chance of light showers Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Becoming partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon with partly cloudy skies Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night with a chance of showers Thursday and Thursday night. Becoming partly cloudy Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 52/25/57/28/59 | Reedley 53/26/58/29/60 | Dinuba 52/25/57/28/59 | |
| Porterville 53/26/58/29/60 | Lindsay 53/25/58/29/60 | Delano 54/27/58/30/61 | |
| Bakersfield 52/31/58/33/61 | Arvin 52/27/57/29/60 | Taft 54/29/57/34/60 | |
| Lamont 53/28/57/31/60 | Pixley 53/25/58/28/59 | Tulare 53/24/59/28/59 | |
| Woodlake 53/26/58/30/60 | Hanford 53/26/58/29/60 | Orosi 53/25/58/29/59 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
PM showers possible 32/59 |
Tuesday
AM showers possible 36/53/ |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 32/61 |
Thursday
Chance of showers 37/62 |
Friday
Mostly clear 35/64 |
Two Week Outlook: February 28 through March 6: If you’re looking for a milder weather regime, this model is not what you want to look at as well below average temperatures are likely. The good news, however, is this model is also projecting at least a better than even chance of rain.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH today with locally stronger gusts, mainly along the west side. Winds tonight through Sunday night will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds will be mainly out of the northwest Monday at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: The cold upper low that zoomed through the region last night was pretty much DOA. So now, we look ahead to our next chance of showers which will arrive possibly as early as Monday afternoon. On paper, this system appears similar to the one that just moved through, but may actually result in some light showers, according to modeling information. However, according to model information, last night’s system should have resulted in a few light showers and that did not take place. Anyway, we’ll call for a chance of light showers from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. The next in the parade will occur about Thursday, although the timing, track, and intensity of this system are difficult to discern right now. So, like some of the others the past week and a half, we’ll just use the word chance until more details become apparent.
Frost: This has been a difficult week, to say the least. And tonight, sadly, the saga will continue. A fast moving, moisture starved, but very cold low moved through last night with a very cold air mass following close behind. Like earlier in the week, the air mass will continue to be very dry and with dew points somewhere in the 20s this afternoon, widespread mid to upper 20s are likely tonight through to about an hour after sunrise Saturday. For now, I’ll call for the very coldest low lying locations down to 23 to 24 degrees with most other locations ranging from 25 to 30. It’s possible local wind conditions could stir matters up enough to hold temperatures a bit higher, but my guess is winds will die off primarily through the predawn hours.
The inversion tonight will be weak, with temperatures at 34 feet from roughly 2 to 4 degrees warmer than at ground level. Durations below 28 degrees could last about 8 hours or more, depending on location.
Most locations Sunday morning will again be below freezing with the cold spots down near 26 to 27 or so and most other locations between 28 and 32.
With some luck, clouds will increase Monday morning, hopefully early enough to halt the radiational cooling process. For now, we’ll go with low to mid 30s, but that could change.
Hopefully all locations Tuesday morning will be above freezing with even some mid to upper 30s. for now, it does not appear the air mass coming in behind the Tuesday storm event is as cold as we’ve suffered through this week. Even so, low to mid 30s will be possible Wednesday and if we cross all our fingers and toes, above freezing conditions will occur Thursday and Friday.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
26 |
Porterville
26 |
Ivanhoe
25 |
Woodlake
27 |
| Strathmore
26 |
McFarland
28 |
Ducor
27 |
Tea Pot Dome
26 |
| Lindsay
25 |
Exeter
24 |
Famoso
28 |
Madera
25 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
27 |
North Bakersfield
27 |
Orosi
26 |
| Orange Cove
26 |
Lindcove
25 |
Lindcove Hillside
30 |
Sanger River Bottom
22 |
| Root Creek
24 |
Venice Hill
26 |
Rosedale
28 |
Jasmine
27 |
| Arvin
28 |
Lamont
27 |
Plainview
26 |
Mettler
29 |
| Edison
27 |
Maricopa
27 |
Holland Creek
29 |
Tivy Valley
26 |
| Kite Road South
29 |
Kite Road North
27 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 20s. Kern, Mid to upper 20s.
Humidity: Visalia, 25%/90% Bakersfield, 25%/75%
Actual Humidity February 20, 2018: Delano, 80%/22%. Porterville, 89%/23%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 90%, Bakersfield: Today 70% tomorrow 90%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days February 20, 2018: Stratford .87, Parlier .73, Blackwell .82 Lindcove .66, Arvin .79, Orange Cove .78, Porterville .69, Delano .72., Madera Two NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 54, Blackwell 56, Lindcove, 55, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 54, Delano 53, Madera Two 53
7.2
Record Temperatures: 77/26. Average Temperatures: 63/40
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1512, -542 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for February so far, 54.8 +5.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.64 season. or -5.47. Month to Date: .00
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.10, or -2.91, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 841, Parlier, 864, Arvin, 753, Shafter, 914, Stratford, 861, Madera two, 1366, Lindcove, 991, Porterville, 1316. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:39 am Sunset: 5:47 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:05
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 58 / 32 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 57 / 38 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 61 / 30 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 61 / 29 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 61 / 33 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 57 / 32 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1548 / 57 / 31 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 58 / 29 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1552 / 59 / 37 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 58 / 38 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.99 42 17.64 186 9.50 14.06
MODESTO T 3.55 41 14.03 164 8.58 13.11
MERCED T 2.29 29 13.35 169 7.92 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.55 20 13.09 168 7.79 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.64 23 12.58 173 7.26 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.78 27 9.10 140 6.50 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 27 7.25 177 4.10 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 6 7.80 234 3.34 5.18
SALINAS T 2.51 30 14.20 167 8.48 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.30 27 14.43 172 8.41 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.02 22 15.95 174 9.15 13.95
Next Report: Friday, February 23/pm