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Forecast

February 24, 2018/report

 

February 24, 2018

Summary: Well, it’s Saturday and it will end the roughest week of the winter season as far as critical low temperatures are concerned.  Last night was no exception as the coldest readings I could find as of 6:00am were 23 degrees at a Madera station and 24 at Steel Ranch.  Every other ag station I could find was below the 30 degree mark with one exception which was in the low 30s.  We’ll discuss tonight’s possibilities below.

 

The latest, mostly dry, and very cold low pressure system is currently spinning its way through the Pacific Northwest.  Some high clouds are spreading into parts of northern California but this system is taking more of a southeasterly path, meaning what little dynamics it has will move into the Great Basin.  We will see some clouds from this feature and there could be a few snow showers over the high Sierra with some possible increased breezes this afternoon along the west side, but all in all, this will be a non event.

 

More of a headliner will arrive Monday.  This very cold storm actually has the potential of very widespread shower activity Monday and Monday night.  Model estimates are portraying this system as perhaps giving a tenth of an inch or so, but that’s a great deal more than what we’ve recorded this month.  Snow will again fall to possibly 1,000 to 2,000 feet, especially by later Monday night as yet another cold air mass dives southward behind the low.  It’s possible this air mass won’t be quite as cold as previous events as a bit more of a northwesterly flow sets up.  No doubt we will see some possible widespread frost Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.  Hopefully cloud cover will increase in time Thursday to modify the situation.  Some  models actually place Porterville in the lower 40s Friday and Saturday.  Wouldn’t that be something?

 

Forecast: Mostly clear this morning.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy this afternoon and evening.  Mostly clear later tonight through Sunday.  Increasing cloudiness later Sunday night with light showers becoming likely Monday and Monday night.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Wednesday.  Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night with showers likely Thursday and Thursday night.  Partly cloudy Friday through Saturday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 58/30/61/34/58 Reedley 59/29/60/33/57 Dinuba 57/28/60/32/57
Porterville 59/29/61/32/58 Lindsay 59/28/60/32/58 Delano 59/29/60/33/58
Bakersfield 57/34/61/35/58 Arvin 59/30/60/33/59 Taft 58/36/61/37/58
Lamont 58/29/61/34/58 Pixley 58/28/60/33/57 Tulare 57/27/59/32/57
Woodlake 58/28/60/32/57 Hanford 58/29/61/33/57 Orosi 58/29/60/33/58

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

Partly cloudy/cold

29/53

Wednesday

Mostly clear

29/60

Thursday

Showers likely

40/62

Friday

AM showers possible

43/63

Saturday

Partly cloudy

39/63

 

Two Week Outlook:  February 28 through March 6:  If you’re looking for a milder weather regime, this model is not what you want to look at as well below average temperatures are likely.  The good news, however, is this model is also projecting at least a better than even chance of rain.

 

March:  Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is  indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month.  So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.

 

March, April, May:  The ninety day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome.  It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.

 

Winds: Winds will be generally in the 5 to 10 MPH range today through Sunday night.  The exception will be this afternoon where local gusts to 20 MPH are possible along the west side.  Winds Monday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH possible along the west side.  Winds will decrease Monday night to around 5 to 10 MPH with light winds Tuesday.

 

Rain:  It appears we may actually  have a legitimate chance of some light precipitation Monday and Monday night.  Computer estimates are placing totals at nearly a tenth of an inch at most locations with snow falling again to very low elevations, perhaps down to 1,000 to 2,000 feet.  The light showers will end sometime late Monday night or early Tuesday with dry weather Tuesday through Wednesday night.  The chance is also looking fairly decent for more showers Thursday and Thursday night.  This system could potentially be holding a bit more water with a greater chance of dropping more than a tenth.  Dry weather will return Friday and will last through at least the following weekend.

 

Frost:  What a week it has been, especially considering the lateness of the season.  Who would have ever thought that some locations could chill all the way down to 21 degrees?  Last night was certainly no barrel of laughs, either, with Madera down to 23 and Steel Ranch down to 24.  All locations with one exception were in the 20s and the exception was in the low 30s.  These readings were taken at 6:00am.

 

The air mass continues to be very dry.  I would anticipate dew points this afternoon will be in the mid 20s at most locations this afternoon.  We may see some high clouds during the first part of the night from a storm diving into the Great Basin, but I do expect mostly clear skies later in the night, again allowing strong radiational cooling.  I do believe there will be some minor modifications as compared to last night with coldest locations probably around 26 to 27 and most locations between 28 and 33.

 

The inversion tonight will continue to be weak with temperatures at 34 feet being 2 to 4 degrees warmer at most locations.

 

Monday morning is a bit of a toss up at this time as a lot will be determined by the arrival time of increasing cloudiness ahead of Monday’s storm event.  If clouds arrive in time,  many locations will only fall into the low to mid 30s, possibly lower in the south valley where clouds will appear last.  Tuesday morning is also a tough call at this time.  Instead of the arrival time, we’ll be dealing with the exit strategy of the clouds.  My feeling is we’ll probably see upper 20s to mid 30s Tuesday.  Wednesday has the potential of readings in the 27 to 33 degree range.  Thursday and Friday, if more weather comes in, will hopefully have temperatures above freezing.  Above freezing temperatures are expected through the weekend and hopefully through the following week.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

29

Porterville

28

Ivanhoe

28

Woodlake

29

Strathmore

28

McFarland

29

Ducor

29

Tea Pot Dome

28

Lindsay

27

Exeter

27

Famoso

30

Madera

28

Belridge

29

Delano

30

North Bakersfield

29

Orosi

29

Orange Cove

28

Lindcove

27

Lindcove Hillside

32

Sanger River Bottom

25

Root Creek

27

Venice Hill

27

Rosedale

29

Jasmine

28

Arvin

29

Lamont

29

Plainview

27

Mettler

31

Edison

29

Maricopa

28

Holland Creek

30

Tivy Valley

27

Kite Road South

30

Kite Road North

27

AF=Above Freezing

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 20s. Kern, Mid to upper 20s.

Humidity: Visalia, 25%/90%  Bakersfield, 25%/80%

Actual Humidity February 22, 2018: Delano, 79%/27%.  Porterville, 86%/26%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 70% tomorrow 80%, Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 90%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days February 22, 2018: Stratford .84, Parlier .72, Blackwell .86 Lindcove .67, Arvin .83, Orange Cove .78, Porterville .70, Delano .73., Madera Two .73.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 53, Blackwell 55, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 50, Porterville 53, Delano 51, Madera Two 51

7.2

Record Temperatures: 79/30. Average Temperatures: 64/40

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1552, -528 Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for February so far, 52.9 +3.1

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since October 1, 2017  Fresno: 1.64 season. or -5.61.  Month to Date: .00

Since October 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  1.10, or -3.00,  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 870, Parlier, 893, Arvin, 775, Shafter, 938, Stratford, 885, Madera two, 1395, Lindcove, 1020, Porterville, 1343.  Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:36 am  Sunset: 5:48 pm. Hours of Daylight:  11:09

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  54 /  31 / 0.03 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  55 /  35 / 0.01 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  56 /  34 /    T /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  55 /  30 /    T /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  55 /  37 /    T /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1500 /  46 /  34 / 0.01 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1554 /  52 /  30 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  54 /  32 / 0.02 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1556 /  56 /  35 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  53 /  36 /    T /

 

Rainfall:                                                       Season     %        Last y.   %           Ave.       Annual Ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    3.99    42   17.64   184     9.59    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    3.56    41   14.03   162     8.66    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    2.30    29   13.35   166     8.02    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    1.58    20   13.09   166     7.88    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    1.65    22   12.58   171     7.34    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    1.78    27    9.10   139     6.57    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                      T    1.10    27    7.25   175     4.14     6.47

BISHOP                           T    0.20     6    7.80   231     3.37     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    2.51    29   14.20   166     8.56    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    2.30    27   14.43   170     8.51    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    2.02    22   15.95   172     9.26    13.95

 

Next Report: Saturday, February 24/pm