February 27, 2018
Summary: The center of a cold unstable upper low is centered somewhere near the Los Angeles basin at this hour and is beginning to shift to the east rather quickly. The northern limit of the shower activity associated with this low is over the southern Sierra Nevada of Tulare and Kern Counties with a few light showers trying to drift off the mountains and into the eastern portion of the valley. The bulk of the energy from this point on will be from Kern County southward with scattered mainly light snow showers over the Kern County mountains.
It is cold this afternoon with temperatures as of 1:00pm only in the mid to upper 40s. clearing has occurred down the west side as far south as portions of Kings County. Plenty of residual clouds remain along the east side of the valley southward into Kern County. The potential for sub freezing temperatures is certainly there tonight. It will be somewhat of a tough forecast as it is possible some cloud cover could remain in portions of the eastern and southern sections of the valley. More is discussed below.
Wednesday will be a fairly nice day as we have a very short lived ridge of high pressure moving through. Clouds will begin to increase again Wednesday night as a dynamic and long-lived low pressure system will park over Oregon and northern California from Thursday through Saturday. This will result in roughly 72 hours of potential on and off precipitation. It’s also an excellent pattern for substantial precipitation up and down the Sierra Nevada as the jet stream runs from west to east through central California then is lifted by the Sierra. This will allow for potentially heavy precipitation. The low will begin to make its move eastward late Saturday night for a return to dry weather Sunday and probably for most if not all of next week.
The flow aloft next week will be largely westerly which means fairly mild conditions will prevail.
Forecast: Gradual clearing from the northwest tonight with possible lingering cloud cover, especially in eastern Tulare County southward into Kern County into Wednesday morning. Mostly clear Wednesday afternoon. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night. Periods of rain Thursday through Friday night. Scattered showers Saturday and Saturday night. Clearing Sunday morning then mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Tuesday.
Short Term:
Madera 28/61/41/61 | Reedley 29/62/41/62 | Dinuba 28/62/42/62 | |
Porterville 29/63/40/63 | Lindsay 28/63/40/64 | Delano 30/63/42/64 | |
Bakersfield 38/63/43/65 | Arvin 32/63/42/65 | Taft 38/63/43/65 | |
Lamont 31/64/42/64 | Pixley 29/63/40/62 | Tulare 28/61/40/59 | |
Woodlake 28/62/41/61 | Hanford 30/63/40/61 | Orosi 28/62/41/61 |
Winds: Winds once we get beyond the evening hours will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions after midnight. Winds Wednesday will be generally less than 12 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds late Wednesday night through Friday will be out of the southeast at 15 to 25 MPH at times with locally stronger gusts.
Rain: The current system is now winding down with any additional shower activity generally in southern Tulare County and Kern County, and even there generally near the mountains. Tonight will be dry with dry weather Wednesday and Wednesday night. Periods of rain will overspread the valley Thursday and continue on and off through possibly as late as Saturday night. Low pressure will just park over Oregon and northern California with a strong jet stream flanked underneath the low moving from west to east across central California. This is an ideal pattern for substantial precipitation over the Sierra and possibly some pretty decent amounts along the east side of the valley, especially near the foothills. Along the west side and in Kern County, rain shadows will be a factor which could substantially reduce amounts there. By the time this system is over, half inch plus totals are possible, mainly along the east side north of Kern County with probably less than half of that along the west side and especially in Kern County. Dry weather will return Sunday and continue for most, if not all, of next week.
Frost Discussion: The coldest pool of air is now to our south as the upper level low slides eastward through southern California. No doubt, there will be large differences in low temperatures overnight with the coldest locations probably in Madera and Fresno Counties and northern Tulare County. The remainder of the valley will depend on cloud cover as well as wind conditions and mixing. The bottom line is, where skies are at least relatively clear and winds are light, temperatures could drop to 26 to 27 degrees with other flatland locations ranging from 28 to 32. Areas with at least partial cloud cover will only chill into the low to mid 30s. for now, we only have tonight to be concerned with as clouds ahead of the next system will be increasing Wednesday night with abundant cloud cover possibly through Sunday morning. If clouds do happen to clear Sunday morning, low to mid 30s are possible, continuing Monday morning. Generally above freezing conditions will prevail from Tuesday on.
Lows Tonight:
Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
29 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
29 |
Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
30 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
28 |
Belridge
28 |
Delano
30 |
North Bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
28 |
Orange Cove
27 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
Root Creek
27 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
31 |
Jasmine
29 |
Arvin
32 |
Lamont
30 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
33 |
Edison
32 |
Maricopa
29 |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
Next Report: Tuesday, February 27