February 28, 2018
Summary: Clouds are beginning to increase this afternoon just north of Fresno as a major winter storm moves out of the Gulf of Alaska and eventually parks over the Pacific Northwest and northern California. This system, unlike its predecessors, is taking an over water path on its way inland. Thus, significant amounts of precipitation are certainly possible beginning as early as Thursday morning from Fresno County north. Once the low takes up residence just to our north, a strong west to east jet stream will be over central California, energizing the potential precipitation amounts. Also, significant differences in pressure will set up between the northern California coast and southern California for gusty winds in many areas.
This storm will take about 72 hours to play out as several waves of low pressure will move through the trough and into central California. Maybe I’m pressing my luck here, but as much as a half inch to inch of rain seems possible now as latest models are pretty impressive. This storm will be a cold one, but not as cold. Snow levels will initially start out at 5,000 feet then eventually lower to 3,000 to 4,000 feet later Friday night and Saturday as the colder sector of the low moves overhead. Showers should end sometime Saturday night with mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy conditions Sunday through Tuesday.
Latest medium range models are pointing towards a possible new system moving through about late Tuesday night or Wednesday of next week, so we’ll continue to track that, as well.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness tonight. Periods of rain likely Thursday through Saturday, possibly locally heavy at times. A chance of showers Saturday night. Becoming partly cloudy Sunday then mostly clear Sunday night through Monday night. Increasing cloudiness by late Tuesday with a chance of showers later Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 41/60/42/58 | Reedley 40/60/42/57 | Dinuba 39/59/41/57 | |
| Porterville 39/63/42/59 | Lindsay 39/63/41/58 | Delano 42/64/42/59 | |
| Bakersfield 43/65/44/60 | Arvin 40/65/44/61 | Taft 43/64/46/60 | |
| Lamont 42/65/44/60 | Pixley 39/62/44/59 | Tulare 40/61/42/58 | |
| Woodlake 40/61/43/57 | Hanford 41/61/43/59 | Orosi 39/61/43/58 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Partly cloudy 30/59 |
Monday
Mostly clear 33/63 |
Tuesday
Increasing clouds 38/70 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 45/68 |
Two Week Outlook: March 2 through March 8: If you’re looking for a milder weather regime, this model is not what you want to look at as well below average temperatures are likely. The good news, however, is this model is also projecting at least a better than even chance of rain.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 12 MPH for the remainder of the day and much of the night. Late tonight through Friday, there will be periods of winds out of the south to southeast at 15 to 25 MPH with stronger gusts, especially along the west side. Winds Saturday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH, diminishing Saturday night.
Rain: The storm which will arrive Thursday has the potential of being the strongest of the year, although there’s not much to compare it to. The fact that this system will be overhead for roughly 72 hours means substantial amounts of rain could fall on the valley floor from Thursday morning through Saturday night. I may be a bit optimistic, but here goes. Rainfall amounts during this event may very well range from a half inch to possibly even more than an inch in some locations. In the mountains, precipitation amounts should be two inches or more over the foothills with three inches or more over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. This could translate into three feet of new snow over the high country. This system will start to taper off Saturday night with dry weather return Sunday through Tuesday. Models show another potential storm arriving late Tuesday and Wednesday which will be our next chance of much needed precipitation.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night through Saturday morning. The air mass that will eventually swing in behind this upcoming storm event will be cold with some possible upper 20s and lower 30s Sunday and Monday mornings. There’s a lot that will need to be determined between now and then, but that’s how it’s looking at this point. After Tuesday, expect readings to be above freezing for several days.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Kern, Mid to upper 30s.
Humidity: Visalia, 55%/95% Bakersfield, 40%/90%
Actual Humidity February 26, 2018: Delano, 90%/29%. Porterville, 95%/32%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 20% tomorrow 70%, Bakersfield: Today 20% tomorrow 50%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days February 26, 2018: Stratford .76, Parlier .64, Blackwell .77 Lindcove .62, Arvin .76, Orange Cove .69, Porterville .66, Delano .70., Madera Two .61. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 51, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 53, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 49, Porterville 51, Delano 49, Madera Two 50
Record Temperatures: 79/26. Average Temperatures: 65/41
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1630, -500 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for February so far, 51.8 +1.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.78 season. or -5.77. Month to Date: .14
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.32, or -2.95, Month to Date: .22
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 923, Parlier, 949, Arvin, 823, Shafter, 990, Stratford, 938, Madera two, 1454, Lindcove, 1076, Porterville, 1400. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:31 am Sunset: 5:52 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:18
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 55 / 41 / 0.03 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 50 / 42 / 0.25 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 52 / 41 / 0.30 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 55 / 37 / 0.03 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 52 / 39 / 0.22 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 50 / 40 / 0.48 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1554 / 53 / 35 / 0.07 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 51 / 40 / 0.30 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1556 / 49 / 37 / 0.21 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.24 4.23 43 17.64 179 9.85 14.06
MODESTO 0.17 3.73 42 14.03 157 8.91 13.11
MERCED 0.21 2.51 30 13.35 161 8.29 12.50
MADERA 0.15 1.73 21 13.09 161 8.14 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.65 22 12.58 167 7.55 11.50
HANFORD T 1.78 26 9.10 134 6.78 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 26 7.25 170 4.27 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 6 7.80 225 3.46 5.18
SALINAS 0.13 2.64 30 14.20 161 8.83 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.30 2.60 30 14.47 164 8.81 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.14 2.16 23 16.07 168 9.59 13.95
Next Report: Thursday, March 1