March 1, 2018
Summary: Rain has spread as far south as Fresno County with even a few showers now spreading into northern Kings and Tulare Counties. This is the first phase of what will be a very unsettled period of time which will last through Saturday. The center of the low pressure system is off the Oregon coast and is developing a trough southward into California. The upper low itself will park over Oregon and northern California tonight through Saturday. With the jet stream sweeping underneath the low into central California, the stage is set for what will hopefully be the strongest winter storm of this very dry season.
Some locations on the valley floor could push an inch of rain over the next 72 hours with lesser amounts along the west side and in Kern County. Those locations will be battling the usual rain shadows.
Dry weather will return Sunday. The air mass following this storm will be quite cold with frost concerns coming up Sunday and Monday mornings. More is discussed below.
The next chance at precipitation may arrive about Wednesday. This will be a milder storm with higher snow levels, but since it’s still a week away, it will require additional study.
Forecast: Rain spreading southward this morning. Periods of rain this afternoon through Friday night. Showers Saturday with a small chance of showers Saturday night. Partly cloudy Sunday. Becoming mostly clear Sunday night through Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night with a chance of showers Wednesday through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 60/48/58/42/57 | Reedley 61/49/59/44/57 | Dinuba 59/47/57/43/57 | |
| Porterville 64/47/60/43/58 | Lindsay 64/47/61/42/57 | Delano 65/49/61/44/58 | |
| Bakersfield 66/50/62/45/57 | Arvin 67/48/62/44/59 | Taft 67/50/62/46/58 | |
| Lamont 67/49/62/45/59 | Pixley 64/45/58/44/58 | Tulare 62/46/58/43/57 | |
| Woodlake 61/46/58/43/58 | Hanford 61/47/58/44/58 | Orosi 62/46/57/43/57 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Partly cloudy 31/62 |
Monday
Mostly clear 32/63 |
Tuesday
Increasing clouds 39/70 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 49/67 |
Thursday
Chance of showers 46/71 |
Two Week Outlook: March 7 through March 13: If you’re looking for a milder weather regime, this model is not what you want to look at as well below average temperatures are likely. The good news, however, is this model is also projecting at least a better than even chance of rain.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will continue to increase out of the southeast at 15 to 25 MPH at times through Friday night with stronger gusts, especially along the west side. Winds Saturday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH, decreasing Saturday night with generally light winds Sunday.
Rain: It’s hard to believe that both Fresno and Bakersfield have recorded less than two inches of rain since last July. Finally, we have a Pacific storm which intends to do something about this. Rain is already overspreading Fresno County and will slowly move southward through the afternoon. Rainfall totals with this system will be a challenge to estimate as I anticipate a distinct rain shadow will form along the west side and, of course, in Kern County. By the time the rain ends, probably sometime Saturday night, one-half to one inch totals are possible from Porterville northward along the east side. On the west side of the valley, the potential seems to be between a quarter and a half inch seems plausible with a quarter to a third of an inch over the valley portion of Kern County.
From now through Saturday evening, there will be a chance of rain at any given time. Dry weather will return Sunday, at least temporarily, and will last through Tuesday. Some models are picking up on the possibility of a warmer type storm affecting northern and central California about the middle of next week. This one is still almost a week away, so we’ll put the microscope on this one as we get closer to the event.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 tonight and each night through Saturday. The air mass behind the current storm is quite cold. The potential is there for upper 20s to lower 30s Sunday and Monday mornings. Sunday morning is currently a tougher call as the back side of the current storm will be exiting, stage left. How much cloud cover remains behind is still questionable, but cloud cover and wind conditions may boost temperature estimates. Assuming it’s still clear Tuesday morning, low to mid 30s would not be a surprise. Potentially, a milder Pacific storm will arrive after that, keeping temperatures above freezing Wednesday and beyond.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern, Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Humidity: Visalia, 55%/95% Bakersfield, 40%/75%
Actual Humidity February 28, 2018: Delano, 89%/32%. Porterville, 97%/43%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 10% tomorrow 10%, Bakersfield: Today 20% tomorrow 10%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days February 28, 2018: Stratford .73, Parlier .56, Blackwell .74 Lindcove .56, Arvin .69, Orange Cove .61, Porterville .58, Delano .63., Madera Two .59. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 51, Blackwell 53, Lindcove, 53, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 48, Porterville 51, Delano 49, Madera Two 50
7.2
Record Temperatures: 79/28. Average Temperatures: 65/41
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1670, -484 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for February so far, 51.3 +1.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.90 season. or -5.79. Month to Date: .26
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.32, or -3.04, Month to Date: .22
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 952, Parlier, 977, Arvin, 851, Shafter, 1007, Stratford, 965, Madera two, 1480, Lindcove, 1105, Porterville, 1433. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:28 am Sunset: 5:54 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:23
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 55 / 41 / 0.03 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 50 / 42 / 0.25 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 52 / 41 / 0.30 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 55 / 37 / 0.03 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 52 / 39 / 0.22 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 50 / 40 / 0.48 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1554 / 53 / 35 / 0.07 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 51 / 40 / 0.30 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1556 / 49 / 37 / 0.21 /
Next Report: Thursday, March 1/PM