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Forecast

March 2, 2018/report

March 2, 2018

Summary: You can sure discern where the colder air is arriving from the current storm.  The freezing level overnight at Vandenberg AFB was still at 7,200 feet.  Over Oakland, the freezing level was down to 3,400 feet.  A major winter storm centered just off the southern Oregon coast continues to pinwheel bands of precipitation across central California.  Rain and snow amounts along the Sierra Nevada have been heavy.  Foothill locations have received 2 to 4 inches with even more over the higher elevations.  On the valley floor, amounts ranged from a few hundredths in the south to more than an inch in Madera County and eastern Fresno County.

 

Doppler radar depicts a great amount of shower activity over parts of the valley floor southward to Kern County.  This will continue through tonight as bands of energy rotate around the low and are caught up in the jet stream which is moving from west to east across central California.  The colder sector of this storm will arrive Saturday with the likelihood of showers and even a few thunderstorms, assuming there are breaks in the cloud cover.  Those breaks destabilize the atmosphere.  Showers may last into Saturday evening but dry weather will return for most of Saturday night.

 

Upper level high pressure will begin to build in from the west Sunday.  Overall, a westerly flow will commence for most of next week for a significant warming trend, especially Tuesday through Friday.  The low pressure system which some models had indicated would affect central California  mid week next week have really backed off on that possibility.  For now, unfortunately, it appears next week will be dry.

 

Forecast: Periods of rain through tonight, locally heavy primarily along the east side.  Showers Saturday with a few possible thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening.  Becoming partly cloudy later Saturday night through Sunday.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday night through Friday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 57/43/55/31/58 Reedley 58/44/56/30/60 Dinuba 57/42/55/29/59
Porterville 60/43/56/29/60 Lindsay 59/43/56/29/59 Delano 60/43/57/32/59
Bakersfield 61/44/57/34/60 Arvin 61/43/58/33/59 Taft 60/45/58/35/60
Lamont 60/44/58/33/60 Pixley 59/43/56/30/59 Tulare 57/42/55/29/58
Woodlake 59/43/55/30/59 Hanford 59/44/57/31/59 Orosi 58/43/56/30/59

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Mostly clear

30/63

Tuesday

Mostly clear

34/69

Wednesday

Mostly clear

38/73

Thursday

Partly cloudy

43/71

Friday

Partly cloudy

43/72

 

Two Week Outlook:  March 8 through March 14:  If you’re looking for a milder weather regime, this model is not what you want to look at as well below average temperatures are likely.  The good news, however, is this model is also projecting at least a better than even chance of rain.

 

March:  Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is  indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month.  So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.

 

March, April, May:  The ninety day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome.  It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.

 

Winds: winds will continue mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH at times with locally stronger gusts, especially from Fresno County northward and along the west side.  Winds will be out of the west to northwest Saturday at 10 to 20 MPH at times, diminishing Saturday night with winds of generally less than 10 MPH Sunday and Monday.

 

Rain:  The following are a few rainfall amounts from overnight:  Stratford .22, Parlier .44, Blackwell .24, Lindcove .13, Arvin .32, Orange Cove .63, Madera .98.

 

As you can see, some locations in eastern Fresno County and Madera County have already picked up nearly an inch, and I’m sure there was more in many locations.  The center of a very cold low is just off the southern Oregon coast this morning and will continue to pinwheel bands of energy inland from west to east through tonight.  All of these bands will result in periods of rain from time to time, possibly locally heavy especially east of roughly Highway 99.

 

The precipitation pattern Saturday will be more showery with even the possibility of a few thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and early evening.  If these storms do develop, they would be accompanied by locally heavy rain and small hail.  All the action will begin to wind down Saturday evening with dry weather returning Saturday night and likely continuing through next week.

 

Frost:  All locations will be above freezing tonight.  Temperatures Sunday and Monday mornings will either drop into the low to mid 30s at most locations or, if the atmosphere really settles down, we could see some upper 20s to lower 30s.  The lower level of the atmosphere will begin to  moderate beginning Tuesday with most locations above freezing.  From Wednesday and beyond, a westerly flow aloft will prevail which will help drive temperatures into the lower 70s during the day and mid 30s to lower 40s for overnight lows.  At this point, there’s nothing out there suggesting a particularly cold air mass.

 

Lows Tonight:

All locations will be above freezing.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s  Kern County: Low to mid 40s

Humidity: Visalia 60-95%  Kern: 50-80%

Actual Humidity February 28, 2018: Delano, 89%/32%.  Porterville, 97%/43%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: today 10%  tomorrow 20% Bakersfield: Today 20% tomorrow 20%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days February 28, 2018: Stratford .73, Parlier .56, Blackwell .74 Lindcove .56, Arvin .69, Orange Cove .61, Porterville .58, Delano .63., Madera Two .59.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 51, Blackwell 53, Lindcove, 53, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 48, Porterville 51, Delano 49, Madera Two 50

7.2

Record Temperatures: 79/28. Average Temperatures: 65/41

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1670, -484 Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for February so far, 51.3 +1.0

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since October 1, 2017  Fresno: 1.90 season. or -5.79.  Month to Date: .26

Since October 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  1.32, or -3.04,  Month to Date: .22

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 952, Parlier, 977, Arvin, 851, Shafter, 1007, Stratford, 965, Madera two, 1480, Lindcove, 1105, Porterville, 1433.  Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:28 am  Sunset: 5:54 pm. Hours of Daylight:  11:23

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  58 /  47 / 0.20 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  57 /  47 / 0.23 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  60 /  43 / 0.01 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  65 /  43 /    T /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  69 /  45 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  61 /  44 / 0.02 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1600 /  59 /  47 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  64 /  41 /    T /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1553 /  65 /  42 / 0.00 /

 

 

 

STOCKTON                      0.50    5.46    54   17.64   175    10.10    14.06

MODESTO                       0.51    4.26    47   14.03   153     9.15    13.11

MERCED                        0.41    2.99    35   13.35   156     8.57    12.50

MADERA                        0.18    1.94    23   13.09   155     8.42    12.02

FRESNO                        0.23    2.13    27   12.58   162     7.76    11.50

HANFORD                       0.01    2.09    30    9.10   130     6.99    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    1.32    30    7.25   165     4.40     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.20     6    7.80   220     3.54     5.18

SALINAS                       0.31    2.95    32   14.29   157     9.09    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.24    2.90    32   14.48   159     9.10    12.78

SANTA MARIA                      T    2.16    22   16.08   163     9.89    13.95

 

Next Report: Thursday, March 2/PM