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Forecast

March 3, 2018/report

 

March 3, 2018

Summary: As of the time of this writing, there were numerous showers generally moving from southwest to northeast across the valley and a solid area of rain and snow along the entire Sierra Nevada.  Colder air is beginning to move in aloft.  Satellite imagery shows a popcorn type pattern to the cloud cover off the northern California coast from the Bay Area northward.  This is indicative of very unstable air and that air will arrive during the afternoon hours.  The storm prediction center has the valley under a general risk of isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon through the early evening.  Much will be determined by breaks in the overcast.  If sunshine reaches the ground, currents of warm air will spiral upwards and meet that cold, unstable air aloft.  The result would be thunderstorms.  The main impact would be localized heavy rain and small hail along with localized gusty winds near the perimeter of the storms.

 

The cold trough of low pressure will begin to move eastward tonight, leaving plenty of upslope clouds against the Sierras and the valley facing slopes of the Tehachapis.  This should preclude frost in some areas, especially along the east side and in the south.  However, if skies clear at any given location, that location could see upper 20s to lower 30s in the low spots.  More is discussed below.

 

More clearing will take place Sunday afternoon with mostly clear skies Monday through Tuesday nights as high pressure builds in from the west.

 

The pattern for late Thursday through Saturday is becoming quite interesting.  A milder lower latitude Pacific storm is projected to move into the Pacific Northwest and trail a cold front into northern and possibly central California.  Some models are also indicating this system may tap into the subtropics, increasing the chance of precipitation, possibly even giving heavy rain to central California.  We’re talking possibilities here, so the best course of action will be to call for a chance of rain for Friday and Saturday of next week and see if current models are in line with these possibilities or if the current projections are out to lunch.

 

Forecast: Showers today with a chance of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon through the early evening hours.  If these storms do develop, they will be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail.  Even a funnel cloud or two would not be a total shock.  Showers tapering off this evening.  Partly to mostly cloudy tonight.  Clearing Sunday.  Mostly clear Sunday night through Tuesday night.  Partly cloudy and warmer Wednesday and Thursday.  Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain Friday through Saturday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 53/31/56/30/61 Reedley 54/32/57/31/61 Dinuba 53/30/56/30/60
Porterville 55/31/57/31/62 Lindsay 54/32/57/30/62 Delano 55/33/57/32/63
Bakersfield 54/34/55/33/63 Arvin 54/34/55/32/63 Taft 55/36/56/38/63
Lamont 55/32/56/31/63 Pixley 54/30/57/30/62 Tulare 54/30/56/30/60
Woodlake 54/32/57/31/62 Hanford 54/32/57/31/62 Orosi 54/30/57/30/62

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

Mostly clear

34/65

Wednesday

Partly cloudy

39/68

Thursday

Partly cloudy

42/73

Friday

Chance of rain

51/71

Saturday

Chance of rain

52/72

 

Two Week Outlook:  March 10 through March 16:  for the first time in a couple of weeks, this model is not calling for below average temperatures, but rather near to marginally above average temperatures.  One thing that hasn’t changed is the fact that this model indicates the possibility of above average precipitation during this time frame.

 

March:  Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is  indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month.  So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.

 

March, April, May:  The ninety day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome.  It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.

 

Winds: Winds will be out of the northwest later today through this evening at around 10 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts, decreasing to around 5 to 10 MPH after midnight.  Winds Sunday through Tuesday will be generally less than 12 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain:  These are storm totals as of midnight: Parlier .79, Blackwell .10, Lindcove .69, Arvin .06, Orange Cove 1.12, Porterville .43, Delano .35, Madera 1.28.

 

Currently, numerous showers are falling over the entire valley.  Radar indicates we’ll have somewhat of a lull later this morning, possibly lasting through early afternoon.  However, as very cold, unstable air moves in above us and meets up with daytime heating, more showers will break out this afternoon with a risk of scattered thunderstorms.  This is the type of air mass which results in thunderstorms with localized heavy rain and small hail.  A funnel cloud or two would not be a total shock.  Showers will taper off during the evening hours with dry weather returning later tonight through Thursday.  Models are quite interesting for Friday and Saturday of next week.  They indicate a cold front will move through central and northern California associated with a strong low over the Pacific Northwest.  Some  models indicate a subtropical tap which, in theory, could result in heavy precipitation.  That’s all it is for now, a theory, so the best course of action will be to include a chance of rain in the forecast for Friday and Saturday and see what kind of solution Mother Nature ultimately comes up with.

 

Frost:  Very cold air by the standards of early March is moving in overhead.  It appears most locations tonight will fall into the low to mid 30s, possibly even the upper 30s where cloud cover remains.  We should see residual cloud cover along the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains arcing out over the valley floor.  Even so, this will be a chaotic night with a great deal of temperature differences from place to place.  Areas with cloud cover will be in the mid to upper 30s.  But where clear skies are observed for several hours, upper 20s to lower 30s are possible.

 

Monday morning has a chance of being generally a bit colder as conditions stabilize.  For now, we’ll go with upper 20s to lower 30s in the cold spots and low to mid 30s elsewhere.  Coldest locations Tuesday may drop into the lower 30s, but most locations should be at least slightly above freezing.  Rapid modification of the air mass under a westerly flow aloft will mean much warmer temperatures Wednesday and beyond for above freezing conditions.  We should see lows in the 40s as early as Wednesday morning and possibly even the lower 50s Friday and Saturday as we may be dealing with subtropical moisture over the region.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

30

Porterville

31

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

30

Strathmore

31

McFarland

32

Ducor

AF

Tea Pot Dome

32

Lindsay

30

Exeter

30

Famoso

AF

Madera

31

Belridge

32

Delano

AF

North Bakersfield

AF

Orosi

313

Orange Cove

30

Lindcove

31

Lindcove Hillside

AF

Sanger River Bottom

29

Root Creek

29

Venice Hill

31

Rosedale

AF

Jasmine

32

Arvin

AF

Lamont

AF

Plainview

30

Mettler

AF

Edison

AF

Maricopa

AF

Holland Creek

AF

Tivy Valley

AF

Kite Road South

AF

Kite Road North

AF

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s  Kern: Mid to upper 30s

Humidity: Visalia: 54-100%  Kern: 55-95%

Actual Humidity March 1 2018: Delano, 80%/34%.  Porterville, 86%/42%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 20%  Tomorrow: 70%  Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 50%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days March 1, 2018: Stratford .72, Parlier .49, Blackwell .72 Lindcove .50, Arvin .68, Orange Cove .52, Porterville .52, Delano .62., Madera Two .55.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 51, Blackwell 53, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 49, Porterville 51, Delano 51, Madera Two 51

Record Temperatures: 82/26. Average Temperatures: 65/41

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1683, -484 Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for February so far, 51.5 -1.5

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since October 1, 2017  Fresno: 2.40 season. or -5.36.  Month to Date: .50

Since October 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  1.32, or -3.08,  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 952, Parlier, 977, Arvin, 851, Shafter, 1007, Stratford, 965, Madera two, 1480, Lindcove, 1105, Porterville, 1433.  Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:27 am  Sunset: 5:55 pm. Hours of Daylight:  11:25

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  57 /  46 /  0.51 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  58 /  48 /  0.35 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  56 /  48 /  0.14 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  60 /  46 /  0.07 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  62 /  50 /  0.13 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  60 /  47 /  0.05 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  62 /  48 /  0.27 /

 

 

STOCKTON                      0.04    5.51    54   17.64   173    10.18    14.06

MODESTO                       0.04    4.30    47   14.03   152     9.24    13.11

MERCED                        0.04    3.45    40   13.35   154     8.66    12.50

MADERA                        0.38    3.08    36   13.09   154     8.51    12.02

FRESNO                        0.47    2.87    37   12.58   161     7.83    11.50

HANFORD                       0.33    2.43    34    9.10   129     7.07    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.15    1.47    33    7.25   163     4.45     6.47

BISHOP                           T    0.20     6    7.80   218     3.57     5.18

SALINAS                       0.09    3.38    37   14.29   156     9.17    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.08    3.83    42   14.48   157     9.20    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.16    2.41    24   16.08   161     9.99    13.95
Next Report: Saturday, March 3/PM