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Forecast

March 7, 2018/pm report

 

March 7, 2018

Summary: All the mid and high level clouds during the first half of the day are now moving eastward, so mostly sunny conditions will prevail from this point on.  Satellite imagery depicts a huge area of cloud cover covering the eastern Pacific off of Baja and southern California.  There doesn’t appear to be an organized disturbance embedded within this mess with most of the cloud cover  moving through southern California.  Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are the rule of thumb over central California through Thursday.

 

Models show a weak, mild weather system approaching the north/central California coast late Friday for a chance of showers mainly north of Kern County.  The real action will begin later Saturday through Sunday night as a subtropical low approaches from the west/southwest.  This afternoon’s models are actually more bullish on the potential for a significant weather event.  Some models are tracking this storm inland a bit further north which would give central California a better shot at stronger dynamics.  This could result in more significant precipitation.  Being that this is a subtropical system, snow levels will jump to 8,000 feet or above during this entire event.

 

By late Sunday night, upper level high pressure will begin to fill in behind this storm for dry weather Monday through at least Tuesday night.  Models show an interesting pattern setting up from Tuesday evening and lasting through Saturday.  A big low is projected to set up shop off the Oregon/northern California coast.  Typically with this configuration, waves of energy will rotate inland around the bottom side of the low and into central California.  Timing and strength of all this is up for conjecture but all in all it does look like a good pattern for some decent rainfall amounts from late Wednesday afternoon and beyond.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Wednesday.  Partly cloudy Wednesday night then variable cloudiness Thursday through Friday with a chance of showers Friday and Friday night, mainly north of Kern County.  Rain will become likely Saturday night and continue well into Sunday night.  Becoming mostly to partly cloudy Monday.  Dry weather will prevail Monday through Tuesday night then an increasing chance of rain Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 38/73/45/70 Reedley 37/73/48/71 Dinuba 37/72/47/71
Porterville 37/74/48/72 Lindsay 37/73/49/71 Delano 41/74/49/72
Bakersfield 45/75/50/73 Arvin 41/75/48/72 Taft 48/73/51/72
Lamont 42/74/49/72 Pixley 39/73/49/72 Tulare 37/73/48/70
Woodlake 38/73/47/71 Hanford 39/74/48/71 Orosi 37/73/47/70

 

Winds: Winds will be generally less than 12 MPH through Saturday with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and morning hours.

 

Rain:  for now, it appears the next chance of showers will arrive Friday as a weak, mild weather system  moves in through north/central California.  This system does not appear to be impressive at all, but there will be a chance of showers for the valley Friday through Friday night, mainly north of Kern County and especially north of Fresno County.  The big Kahuna in the form of a subtropical low will be off shore by Saturday morning with rain spreading in from the west/southwest late Saturday afternoon through much of Sunday night.  Models do show that this system may move inland a bit further north with the main low passing over roughly Kern County Sunday.  This system will be a relatively fast mover, allowing high pressure to begin to move in from the west later Sunday night with continued dry weather through Tuesday night.  The pattern is quite interesting for Wednesday afternoon into the following weekend.  If some of these models come into fruition, a low will park off the Oregon/northern California coast and rotate bands of energy around its bottom side and into central California.  This means there would be a chance of rain from anytime Thursday afternoon through Saturday.

 

Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.

 

Lows Tonight:

All locations will be above 32 tonight.

 

Next report:  Thursday, March 8