March 16, 2018
Summary: Doppler radar is showing light shower activity over Madera County and showers are trying to traverse the Coast Range into western Fresno County. However, a rain shadow has developed. The center of circulation of a cold low pressure system is now off the northwest California coast. A cold front will be moving down the valley later today, pushing showers into the south valley. Models are also indicating there is plenty of dynamics in the atmosphere, signifying an increased risk of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, mainly north of Kern County. Small hail and localized heavy rain will be the result.
The low will move inland in northern and central California tonight, keeping periods of showers going at times. A secondary disturbance will move inland Saturday along the back side of the main low, continuing the risk of showers which will taper off by evening. High pressure aloft will begin to build in from the west Sunday and will dominate our weather through Tuesday, resulting in a slow warming trend.
We are still watching a storm over the mid Pacific slowly move eastward. The low will be off the northern California coast by Tuesday night then possibly spread precipitation over central California Wednesday through at least Thursday night. Some models this morning show the possibility of an atmospheric river of air moving from the subtropics then along the bottom side of the low and into California. The timing, strength, and rain possibilities still vary widely on paper. One thing is for sure and that’s that this will be a much milder storm with high snow levels which could actually result in rapidly rising rivers along the Sierra as potentially heavy rain falls on top of the recent snow pack.
Medium range models are now pointing to drier conditions as the storm track is projected to be nudged northward and eastward.
Forecast: Periods of showers this morning north of Kern County. Periods of showers this afternoon through Saturday. There will be a chance of scattered thunderstorms both this afternoon and Saturday afternoon which will be accompanied by small hail and localized heavy rain. A small chance of showers Saturday evening, becoming partly to mostly cloudy later Saturday night and Sunday morning. Partly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night with a chance of rain Wednesday. Rain becoming likely Wednesday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 58/39/59/35/63 | Reedley 60/40/60/36/62 | Dinuba 59/39/59/34/61 | |
| Porterville 62/40/60/35/63 | Lindsay 62/39/61/34/62 | Delano 63/41/60/38/63 | |
| Bakersfield 63/42/61/39/63 | Arvin 63/41/59/40/62 | Taft 63/44/61/41/62 | |
| Lamont 63/41/60/40/63 | Pixley 61/39/60/36/62 | Tulare 59/39/60/35/61 | |
| Woodlake 60/40/60/35/62 | Hanford 61/40/59/36/63 | Orosi 59/39/59/35/62 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Partly cloudy 37/66 |
Tuesday
Increasing clouds 44/67 |
Wednesday
PM rain likely 51/71 |
Thursday
Rain likely 53/70 |
Friday
Chance of rain 47/64 |
Two Week Outlook: March 23 through March 29: this model is finally indicating a return to a drier weather pattern. The storm track is projected to migrate further north. Temperatures should range close to seasonal values.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety-day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be out of the south to southeast today at 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH, especially along the west side. Later tonight and then on Saturday, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, diminishing Saturday night with light winds returning Sunday through Monday.
Rain: Currently, showers are occurring over Madera County and showers are trying to traverse the Coast Range and move into western Fresno County. Radar, though, is currently showing a rain shadow. Showers will progress slowly southward during the course of the day, reaching Kern County in the afternoon. Models also indicate there’s a great deal of instability aloft which may trigger thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening, mainly north of Kern County. Spring thunderstorms typically are accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail and that will be the case today with a possible repeat Saturday afternoon.
Rainfall amounts will vary widely from now through Saturday evening, ranging from around a tenth of an inch in some areas to a third of an inch in others. Locally more can be expected where thunderstorms strike.
The shower activity will end Saturday evening with dry weather sunday through probably Tuesday night. The chance of rain will begin to increase again Wednesday as a much warmer storm approaches from the west. Models are very inconclusive on the timing and strength of this system with some showing a subtropical tap which could lead to significant precipitation, especially over the Sierra. This will be a slow mover so the chance of rain will continue late into Friday. Models are still pointing towards high pressure moving in next weekend and, for now, it appears the following week may actually be dry.
Frost: The colder air mass is now moving into northern California behind a cold front moving slowly southeastward. This front will move through the valley later today. For tonight, cloud cover and showers will keep temperatures above freezing, but Sunday and Monday could see low to mid 30s with a slight chance of upper 20s in isolated river bottom and like locations. Where cloud cover remains behind, readings will remain above freezing. For Tuesday and beyond, above freezing conditions will prevail as a mild and wet southwest flow aloft will be dominant.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s Kern: Low to mid 40s
Humidity: Visalia: 55%/95% Bakersfield: 45%/90%
Actual Humidity March 14, 2018: Delano, 87%/44%, Porterville, 95%/51%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30% tomorrow 30% Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days March 14, 2018: Stratford .82, Parlier .64, Blackwell .83 Lindcove .69, Arvin .68, Orange Cove .71, Porterville .69, Delano .76, Madera Two .67. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 59, Blackwell 59, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 61, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 59, Delano 59, Madera Two 56
Record Temperatures: 91/31. Average Temperatures: 67/44
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1799, -505 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for March so far, 55.5 +1.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 3.37 season. or -5.33. Month to Date: 1.47
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 2.17, or -2.79, Month to Date: .85
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 952, Parlier, 977, Arvin, 851, Shafter, 1007, Stratford, 965, Madera two, 1480, Lindcove, 1105, Porterville, 1433. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:08 am Sunset: 7:07 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:54
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 62 / 42 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 62 / 44 / 0.04 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 63 / 45 / 0.16 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 64 / 39 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 62 / 48 / 0.29 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 61 / 43 / 0.20 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1655 / 64 / 41 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 62 / 46 / 0.06 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 60 / 47 / 0.20 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 60 / 44 / 0.00 /
Rainfall Totals:
STOCKTON 0.01 6.26 56 17.89 160 11.19 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 4.84 47 14.09 138 10.21 13.11
MERCED 0.00 4.16 43 13.51 140 9.66 12.50
MADERA 0.00 3.61 38 13.19 140 9.44 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.37 38 12.87 147 8.77 11.50
HANFORD T 2.89 37 9.21 117 7.88 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.06 2.23 45 7.29 146 5.00 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 5 7.81 204 3.83 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 3.70 36 14.79 145 10.23 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 4.91 47 14.63 140 10.45 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 3.17 28 16.22 144 11.27 13.95
Next Report: Friday, March 16/pm