March 17, 2018
Summary: Currently, the valley is pretty much shower free. However, a secondary disturbance is beginning to make its move inland. In fact, radar is showing a batch of showers from about San Jose on the north to Salinas on the south. This batch will be moving into the valley later this morning. Cold, unstable air will be overhead this afternoon as this low moves through. The best chance of showers today will be from around noon to about 7:00pm as the daytime heating effect interacts with an already unstable air mass above. This will cause buoyancy in the atmosphere, triggering scattered showers and even a few isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. The freezing level taken over Oakland last night was down to 3,900 feet which gives you an idea how chilly the air mass is.
There could be local frost Sunday morning, depending on cloud cover and wind conditions. It still appears low to mid 30s are likely north of Kern County and the mid 30s to lower 40s in Kern County.
Upper level high pressure will begin to nose in from the west beginning tonight which will result in dry weather through early Tuesday. There is a massive low pressure system about 800 miles west of the northern California coast.
The rain event beginning Tuesday could be a blockbuster. This morning’s models show an atmospheric river of air moving subtropical moisture into California late Tuesday through Wednesday. The bulls-eye for this flow appears to be Monterey on the north to Los Angeles on the south. Precipitation could be very heavy over the Sierra Nevada with significant rain on the valley floor. This low will merge with another system moving out of the Gulf of Alaska Wednesday and Thursday with widespread precipitation Thursday and Thursday night. This massive system will be to our east late Thursday night and Friday morning. Interestingly enough, as high pressure tries to build inland Friday, another smaller low will dig rapidly southward from the Gulf of Alaska, arriving Saturday night and Sunday. Models vary from an inside slider, meaning the low would move into Nevada, or possibly farther west over northern and central California. For now, we’ll keep the forecast dry for next weekend, but that is certainly subject to change.
Medium range models for week after next still maintain a dry forecast under high pressure.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness today through this evening with a chance of scattered showers, mainly from midday through early evening. There will be a small chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Partly cloudy tonight and Sunday morning. Becoming mostly clear Sunday afternoon through Monday evening. Increasing cloudiness late Monday night with a chance of rain by midday Tuesday. Rain likely at times Wednesday night through Thursday night, locally heavy at times. Partly cloudy Friday through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 59/33/62/36/69 | Reedley 60/34/63/37/70 | Dinuba 59/32/63/36/69 | |
| Porterville 60/33/63/37/71 | Lindsay 59/32/63/35/70 | Delano 61/35/62/37/71 | |
| Bakersfield 59/40/63/41/71 | Arvin 61/37/63/38/71 | Taft 60/41/63/43/70 | |
| Lamont 61/38/63/39/71 | Pixley 59/34/62/37/70 | Tulare 59/32/62/36/69 | |
| Woodlake 60/34/63/37/69 | Hanford 60//34/63/37/70 | Orosi 59/32/63/36/69 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
PM rain 51/67 |
Wednesday
Rain likely 53/63 |
Thursday
Rain likely 54/67 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 40/62 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 37/67 |
Two Week Outlook: March 23 through March 29: this model is finally indicating a return to a drier weather pattern. The storm track is projected to migrate further north. Temperatures should range close to seasonal values.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety-day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH today with locally stronger gusts, diminishing later this evening. Winds later tonight will be variable to 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Sunday through Monday night will be generally less than 12 MPH and variable in nature. On Tuesday, winds will become out of the south to southeast at 10 to 20 MPH, increasing to 15 to 25 MPH Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Rain: A cold upper low, or call it a secondary disturbance, is currently moving on shore near Monterey. There is a batch of showers associated with this feature which will move into the northern half of the valley later this morning. The air above us is cold and unstable. As the sun heats the atmosphere, it will trigger scattered showers this afternoon with even an isolated thunderstorm or two not out of the question. Rainfall amounts for the remainder of the day should range from .10 to .25, locally more if a thunderstorm occurs. Expect dry weather tonight through Monday night.
We will then enter a very interesting period of time, from my perspective. A big low is located 800 miles off the northern California coast and will eventually merge with another significant low out of the Gulf of Alaska. In the meantime, as the low approaches the coast, an atmospheric river of air will move in from the southwest. It will be soaked with subtropical air. Some models indicate this river of air will move inland from Monterey on the north to Los Angeles on the south, putting the valley in the bulls-eye. Potentially very heavy amounts of rain will occur over the Sierra Nevada with locally heavy amounts on the valley floor. Rain could begin as early as midday Tuesday and last through Thursday night. I wouldn’t be surprised to see one to two inches on the valley floor along the east side with lesser amounts elsewhere.
Dry weather will return Friday with dry weather lasting probably through the weekend. I hedge a bit on this one as some models are showing a low moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and tracking probably into the Great Basin, keeping us dry. Other models, though, show it moving further west with a chance of showers Sunday. From next Monday and beyond, conditions look dry.
Frost: The freezing level overnight over Oakland was down to 3,900 feet, indicating a pool of cold, unstable air will be overhead today and tonight. Widespread low to mid 30s are possible but where cloud cover is more dominant, upper 30s and lower 40s will be possible. There is a slight chance of upper 20s in low lying river bottoms for short durations. All in all, though, most locations will remain above freezing with colder locations possibly in the lower 30s.
Most, if not all, locations will be above freezing Monday morning as the air mass quickly begins to modify. There is no chance of frost from Tuesday on as more weather comes in later in the week.
Longer term, there’s nothing showing up which would result in a spring frost.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
33 |
Porterville
AF |
Ivanhoe
AF |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
AF |
McFarland
AF |
Ducor
AF |
Tea Pot Dome
AF |
| Lindsay
32 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
AF |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
AF |
Delano
AF |
North Bakersfield
AF |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
AF |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
30 |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
AF |
Jasmine
AF |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
AF |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
AF |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
AF |
| Kite Road South
AF |
Kite Road North
AF |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s Kern: Low to mid 30s
Humidity: Visalia: 40%/100% Bakersfield: 35%/90%
Actual Humidity March 15, 2018: Delano, 87%/25%, Porterville, 96%/38%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40% tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today: 40% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days March 15, 2018: Stratford .82, Parlier .63, Blackwell .81 Lindcove .64, Arvin .61, Orange Cove .70, Porterville .66, Delano .73, Madera Two .66. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 59, Blackwell 60, Lindcove, 59, Arvin, 61, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 60, Delano 59, Madera Two 57
Record Temperatures: 88/33. Average Temperatures: 68/44
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1811, -503 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for March so far, 55.3 +0.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 3.37 season. or -5.40. Month to Date: 1.47
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 2.23, or -2.77, Month to Date: .91
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 952, Parlier, 977, Arvin, 851, Shafter, 1007, Stratford, 965, Madera two, 1480, Lindcove, 1105, Porterville, 1433. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:07 am Sunset: 7:08 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:56
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 59 / 48 / 0.48 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 58 / 46 / 0.39 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 59 / 42 / 0.10 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 65 / 44 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 65 / 43 / 0.05 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1645 / 54 / 42 / 0.06 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1653 / 60 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 62 / 38 / 0.07 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1655 / 64 / 43 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 60 / 44 / M /
Rainfall Totals:
STOCKTON 0.22 6.54 58 17.89 159 11.26 14.06
MODESTO 0.18 5.02 49 14.09 137 10.28 13.11
MERCED 0.14 4.33 45 13.51 139 9.73 12.50
MADERA 0.48 4.09 43 13.19 139 9.49 12.02
FRESNO 0.39 3.76 43 12.87 146 8.84 11.50
HANFORD 0.10 2.99 38 9.21 116 7.93 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.06 2.29 45 7.29 145 5.04 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 5 7.81 203 3.85 5.18
SALINAS 0.37 4.07 39 14.79 143 10.31 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.05 4.96 47 14.63 139 10.53 12.78
SANTA MARIA T 3.17 28 16.22 143 11.36 13.95
Next Report: Saturday, March 17/pm