March 18, 2018
Summary: The only real cloud cover left from yesterday’s storm passage is some upslope clouds banking up against the valley facing slopes of the Kern County mountains and these will mix out later this morning. A weak ridge is now moving overhead and will maintain dry weather through Monday night. There is a massive low pressure system roughly 800 miles west of the northern California coast. Higher clouds extend hundreds of miles eastward and are now just off the central coast. They will make their presence known later today in the valley with variable high cloudiness tonight through Monday. Models are still depicting an atmospheric river of air moving from the subtropics and into central and southern California Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Models this morning show this river of air moving a bit further south than had previously been depicted, meaning southern California could get pounded by this storm. Kern County is still the bulls-eye so for now the south valley has a better chance at heavier precipitation. The entire region, though, will get wet from Tuesday afternoon and at times through Thursday. Locally heavy precipitation can be expected as the main low begins to approach the west coast Wednesday and Wednesday night. This is a massive system so periods of rain will continue through Thursday evening with conditions finally drying out Friday.
It’s still unclear where the next low pressure system will go. Some models continue to show it sliding into the Great Basin while a few show it moving into northern and central California. The lion’s share of the models show a dry forecast, though, so for now that’s what will go with.
Medium range models for next week and possibly all the way through the end of the month are indicating dry weather as a big ridge builds over and along the west coast.
Forecast: Mostly clear this morning but partly cloudy in Kern County. Variable high clouds this afternoon through Monday. Increasing cloudiness Monday night with rain spreading in from the west possibly as early as Tuesday afternoon with rain becoming likely Tuesday night through Thursday evening. It’s possible precipitation could be locally heavy at times, especially in the south valley. Mostly to partly cloudy later Thursday night through Friday morning. Partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 61/36/68/46/62 | Reedley 61/37/68/48/62 | Dinuba 60/36/67/46/62 | |
| Porterville 61/36/68/48/63 | Lindsay 62/35/69/48/64 | Delano 61/36/69/49/63 | |
| Bakersfield 62/43/69/50/65 | Arvin 60/41/69/49/65 | Taft 60/43/69/51/64 | |
| Lamont 62/39/69/49/65 | Pixley 60/37/69/48/64 | Tulare 60/35/67/48/62 | |
| Woodlake 61/37/68/49/63 | Hanford 61/37/68/50/63 | Orosi 61/36/67/49/63 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH today through Monday evening with periods of near calm conditions. Winds will be out of the southeast Monday night at 10 to 15 MPH, increasing to 10 to 20 MPH Tuesday and Wednesday with stronger gusts at times.
Rain: Now that the latest low pressure system has moved off to the east, we turn our attention to a massive system located about 800 miles off shore. This will be a complex event which will begin possibly as early as Tuesday afternoon and last through at least Thursday evening. The dynamics of this storm will be strong as we observe the formation of an atmospheric river of air moving into what appears to be the southern third of California. That’s a bit further south than previous models had indicated but still keeps Kern County in the bulls-eye. This flow could still migrate a bit further north late Tuesday and Wednesday as the main low begins to inch towards the coast.
The lift from the mountains will be just right for inducing heavy precipitation through this event. However, snow levels are projected to be about 8,000 feet. Heavy rain falling in recently accumulated snow could make for some rapidly rising rivers and streams along the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada.
Here on the valley floor, the best chance of locally heavy rain will be in the south valley, but the whole region should get a decent amount of rain as the low moves across the area Wednesday and Thursday.
From Friday through Sunday, I do anticipate dry weather but I still hedge a bit due to a weak low pressure system moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and probably into the Great Basin. Some models, though, are showing the system moving more into California than Nevada in which case there would be a chance of light showers in the valley. For now, I’ll keep with the dry forecast. Next week looks dry as upper level high pressure builds over and off the west coast and the two week model is also showing dry weather through the end of the month.
Frost: Last night went pretty much as planned as widespread low to mid 30s were reported north of Kern County as upslope clouds were prevalent. Tonight, we should see some increase in high clouds moving in from the west which will moderate the situation just a bit. Mid 30s to lower 40s seem like the way to go with a chance of a cold spot down near the freezing level. For Tuesday morning and beyond, all locations will be above freezing as we have a stormy week ahead. Weak high pressure will develop over the weekend with building high pressure next week which will keep temperatures at least near seasonal values if not marginally above.
Lows Tonight: All locations will be above freezing.
Next report: Monday, March 19