March 19, 2018
Summary: The leading edge of the cloud deck ahead of a massive mid Pacific storm is already approaching the central coast. It will overspread the region beginning this evening. Satellite imagery this afternoon appears to show a developing atmospheric river of air well off the southern California coast which will begin to pound central and southern California late Tuesday through Thursday morning. Models continue to point the bulls-eye from roughly Fresno south to Los Angeles this afternoon. Six inch plus rain totals are likely in the Sierra Nevada from Tulare County northward through Mariposa County with heavy amounts of precipitation accumulating over the Kern County mountains and portions of the Coast Range. There will be so much subtropical moisture that it may overcome potential rain shadow effects along the west side. In fact, some models give Bakersfield more than an inch of rain from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night.
A cold front will move down the valley sometime later Thursday with the rain turning to showers by evening and continuing Thursday night. Some models indicate there will even be a chance of showers Friday morning, but if that occurs they would certainly be winding down.
Weak upper level high pressure will begin to build in from the west Friday night through the weekend for dry weather with dry weather probably lasting through the end of the month if not longer.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness tonight leading to a chance of light showers late Tuesday morning. Rain will move in from the west/southwest Tuesday afternoon with rain likely Tuesday night through Thursday morning, locally heavy at times. Showers Thursday afternoon and Thursday night with a small chance of showers Friday morning. Partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night and Monday.
Short Term:
Madera 45/64/54/67 | Reedley 46/65/53/66 | Dinuba 44/64/54/67 | |
Porterville 45/67/55/67 | Lindsay 45/65/55/67 | Delano 46/66/56/68 | |
Bakersfield 52/68/57/69 | Arvin 47/68/56/69 | Taft 53/68/56/69 | |
Lamont 48/67/56/68 | Pixley 45/66/54/67 | Tulare 44/64/53/67 | |
Woodlake 45/65/54/66 | Hanford 45/65/54/66 | Orosi 44/64/53/65 |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 12 MPH tonight then will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH Tuesday, increasing to 15 to 25 MPH at times Tuesday night through Thursday morning with locally stronger gusts. Late Thursday, winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: Clouds will begin to increase this evening ahead of an intense Pacific storm which is currently located several hundred miles west of the central coast and is moving slowly northeastward. In the meantime, along the bottom side of this system is what was formerly called a pineapple express and is now called and atmospheric river of air. That AR will begin to slam southern and central California beginning Tuesday afternoon and probably lasting through Thursday morning. Models still indicate large amounts of subtropical moisture will be transported in from the southwest, leading to heavy amounts of precipitation throughout the region through Thursday. It’s now possible in excess of six inches of precipitation may be measured along the Sierra Nevada from Tulare County northward through Mariposa County with two to three inches possible over the Kern County mountains and one to two inches on the valley floor, possibly even over the valley portion of Kern County. By later Thursday afternoon, a cold front will move through, issuing in a colder air mass and allowing the precipitation to turn from rain to showers. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out later Thursday. Models now show the possibility of showers lasting into Friday morning with dry weather returning Friday afternoon and lasting through the weekend. Models continue to indicate ridging next week, which will maintain a dry forecast.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing for the foreseeable future.
Lows Tonight: All locations will be above 32.
Next report: Tuesday, March 20