Due to an early morning medical appointment, tomorrow morning’s report will be later than usual. Thanks for your understanding.
March 20, 2018
Summary: Doppler radar along the southern and central California coasts is lit up with precipitation moving inland along the immediate coast and about 100 miles off the southern California coast. One finger of shower activity has poked into the northern half of the San Joaquin Valley with mainly light showers from Fresno County northward at this hour. Rain will overspread the entire valley tonight with the bulls-eye of this whole situation from Wednesday through Thursday. An atmospheric river of air extends beneath a strong low located 700 miles west of the northern California coast. Models have been amazingly consistent on the target area of the potential heaviest rain areas. Generally from Monterey on the north to Los Angeles on the south, which of course encompasses the San Joaquin Valley and the Sierra Nevada, especially from Yosemite southward. Models this afternoon continue the trend of very heavy precipitation over all of the mountain areas surrounding the valley with possibly 2 to 4 inches over the Kern County mountains and 5 to 10 inches along the Sierra Nevada. The subtropical moisture which is now arriving is unusually warm so overnight lows will only dip into the mid 50s to even the lower 60s in some locations.
On the valley floor, it’s certainly possible that we will measure between one and a half and two and a half inches of rain between now and early Friday. The latest model information continues to indicate that this is likely a one in a five to ten year event. It will be extremely interesting to see if all these models are correct as we tally up the numbers Friday morning.
Another element of this storm which hasn’t been discussed much is potential strong winds. From late Wednesday through Thursday, one model places sustained winds at 28 MPH at Bakersfield and 25 MPH at Fresno. This would translate much stronger wind gusts in the southern and western portions of the valley.
A cold front will move down the valley sometime Thursday afternoon, turning the rain to showers. Showers will continue through Thursday night. It now looks like Friday will be dry, however some models are hinting that a low pressure system moving into northern California Saturday night and Sunday may be strong enough for light showers over the area. For now, we’ll go with 50/50 on that proposition. Clear sailing next week as a ridge will begin to build over and off the west coast, eventually driving temperatures to above average with little to no chance of precipitation in the medium term.
Forecast: Rain tonight through most of Thursday, heavy at times from early Wednesday through most of Thursday. Showers late Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Mostly to partly cloudy Friday and Friday night. Increasing cloudiness Saturday with a small chance of light showers Saturday night and Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night. Becoming mostly clear Monday through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 57/65/59/66 | Reedley 57/66/59/67 | Dinuba 56/65/58/65 | |
| Porterville 57/67/59/68 | Lindsay 55/68/58/68 | Delano 58/67/58/69 | |
| Bakersfield 58/68/60/70 | Arvin 58/68/60/69 | Taft 59/68/60/69 | |
| Lamont 57/69/59/70 | Pixley 57/68/58/68 | Tulare 56/66/58/66 | |
| Woodlake 56/65/58/66 | Hanford 57/66/59/67 | Orosi 55/67/58/66 | |
Winds: Winds will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH tonight, increasing to 10 to 20 MPH Wednesday morning and 15 to 30 MPH Wednesday afternoon through Thursday with gusts to possibly 45 MPH along the west side. Gusts possibly stronger than 45 are possible in the extreme south. Winds will be out of the northwest late Thursday at 10 to 20 MPH, continuing Thursday night with northwest winds of 10 to 15 MPH Friday through Saturday.
Due to an early morning medical appointment, tomorrow morning’s report will be later than usual. Thanks for your understanding.
Rain: One slug of moisture has already arrived from Fresno north to Stockton this afternoon with generally light amounts of precipitation. Lurking off shore, however, is widespread rain coming on shore along the central coast and just off the southern California coast. This precipitation will overspread the valley tonight with the real heavy juice arrive Wednesday through Thursday, finally tapering off into light showers late Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Latest model information continues earlier trends of very heavy precipitation over all of central California, especially the Sierra Nevada where 5 to 10 inches of rain is still possible and 2 to 4 inches of rain could tally up over the Kern County mountains.
Here on the valley floor, models are still spitting out figures like 1.50 to 2.50 inches of rain between now and Friday morning. Friday will be dry but some of the most recent models are pointing to a low moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into northern and central California Saturday night and Sunday. If rain does happen to spread this far south, it would pale in comparison to the current event.
After Sunday, all models consistently show high pressure building in for dry weather all of next week.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing for the foreseeable future.
Lows Tonight: All locations will be above 32.
Next report: Wednesday, March 21