March 21, 2018
Summary: There has been a fairly narrow channel of very juicy subtropical air moving into California from San Luis Obispo County southward through Los Angeles. The heaviest precipitation by far today has been in Kern County, especially from roughly Bakersfield south. Analyzing satellite imagery off shore, another burst of moisture will begin to spread over the south valley later this afternoon and tonight. It also appears there will be embedded thunderstorms within this flow which, of course, would result in locally heavy rain. Models do show the rain line moving further north tonight and Thursday morning and still indicate potentially heavy amounts of rain on the valley floor and the southern Sierra Nevada where it has already been raining all day long. The heaviest precipitation in the state has been in Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties where 2 to 3 inches of rain has accumulated over the past 24 hours and where heavy rain continues.
A cold front will move down the valley probably late Thursday morning. The colder air moving in behind this front will interact with the subtropical air mass in place ahead of the front, producing another round of precipitation. The rain will turn to showers Thursday afternoon into Friday morning with dry weather Friday afternoon.
A colder but much weaker low pressure system will move through northern and central California Saturday and Saturday night followed by a weaker wave of low pressure Sunday. There will be at least a small chance of light showers, mainly Saturday and Saturday night, but compared to what we’re dealing with now, it will pale in comparison. Models show this low moving somewhere over the Desert Southwest by early next week and show it maintaining a stationary position through the week. That will create a north to northwest flow over California which will keep temperatures near to below average for the first part of the week with significant warming occurring after Wednesday.
Forecast: Rain tonight and Thursday morning, possibly heavy at times. There will be a chance of embedded thunderstorms. Showers Thursday afternoon through early Friday. Becoming mostly to partly cloudy Friday afternoon and night. Variable cloudiness Saturday through Sunday with a small chance of light showers Saturday and Saturday night, mainly north of Kern County. Partly cloudy Sunday night. Becoming mostly clear Monday through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 57/66/42/64 | Reedley 57/66/43/64 | Dinuba 56/66/42/63 | |
| Porterville 58/69/42/63 | Lindsay 57/69/41/64 | Delano 58/70/44/64 | |
| Bakersfield 60/71/48/63 | Arvin 58/71/46/64 | Taft 60/70/49/63 | |
| Lamont 59/72/47/63 | Pixley 57/69/45/64 | Tulare 57/66/42/63 | |
| Woodlake 57/66/42/64 | Hanford 57/67/42/63 | Orosi 57/66/42/62 | |
Winds: Winds will be out of the southeast tonight and Thursday morning at 15 to 25 MPH with stronger gusts along the west side and the extreme south valley. Winds will be out of the northwest Thursday afternoon at 15 to 25 MPH, diminishing to 10 to 15 MPH Thursday night and 5 to 15 MPH Friday. Winds will again be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH Saturday with locally stronger gusts.
Rain: There has been a pretty narrow but very moist channel of subtropical air moving in from the west/southwest from Kern County down to roughly Orange County. Heaviest precipitation today has been from roughly Bakersfield southward with large amounts of rain accumulating in Ventura, Santa Barbara, and Los Angeles Counties. Models show this channel being nudged a little further north during the course of the night, encompassing the remainder of the valley. Locally heavy amounts will occur, especially over the southern half of the valley, through Thursday morning then a cold front will move southward and enter the picture during the day Thursday. The interaction between this front and a juicy subtropical air mass will result in another burst of heavy rain before the rain changes to showers Thursday afternoon and night. Locally heavy thunderstorms are possible tonight and tomorrow morning. Just showers after that point into Friday morning. Most of Friday will be dry. A cold low will move through northern and central California Saturday and Saturday night followed by a weak wave of low pressure Sunday. There will be a small chance of light showers north of Kern County Saturday and Saturday night, but it’s possible many locations will remain dry. From Monday on through the rest of next week, conditions look high and dry.
Frost: A cold, weak low pressure system will move through the area over the weekend. The air behind this system will be moderately cold for at least the possibility of mid to upper 30s Monday morning with a slight chance of low 30s. After Monday, the air mass will begin to moderate for above freezing conditions.
Lows Tonight: All locations will be above 32.
Next report: Thursday, March 22