March 21, 2018
Summary: The precipitation pattern with this event has so far come in surges. The latest is currently spreading precipitation, locally heavy, from Los Angeles County on the south to Kings and Tulare Counties on the north. Two to three inches of rain have accumulated in upslope areas of the central coastal mountains where heavy rain is currently falling. Big Sur is approaching three inches of rain. So far, the Sierra Nevada has picked up between one half and one and a half inches so far with most locations on the valley floor indicating less than a half inch, although that is changing as this new batch of subtropical moisture moves in from the west/southwest.
Satellite imagery over the eastern Pacific is showing a wide trail of cloud cover stretching from north of Hawaii to central and southern California. Embedded within this flow are batches of moisture laden air. The latest is what is moving on shore now with the next one due later this afternoon or evening. A third is expected during the first half of the day Thursday.
The rain will finally break off into showers Thursday afternoon and night, possibly lasting through Friday morning, especially in the south valley. A new low will move into northern California Saturday with a chance of showers, mainly north of Kern County.
The placement of this low Sunday and Monday is not quite clear at this time. Some projections show it over southern California while others show it over Nevada. At any rate, conditions Monday and beyond will be dry as a ridge of high pressure builds over and off the west coast, generally putting us under a northwest flow aloft. The new two week model is indicating above average temperatures and little, if any, chance of rain well into the first week of April.
Forecast: There will be periods of rain today, locally heavy at times, especially in the south valley. Rain tonight and Thursday morning, possibly heavy at times. Showers Thursday afternoon through Thursday night with a chance of showers Friday morning, mainly in the south valley. Mostly to partly cloudy Friday afternoon and night. A chance of light showers, mainly north of Kern County, Saturday through early Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Mostly clear Monday through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 65/56/67/42/64 | Reedley 65/56/67/42/63 | Dinuba 64/55/66/40/64 | |
| Porterville 67/57/69/42/63 | Lindsay 66/56/67/42/64 | Delano 67/58/72/46/63 | |
| Bakersfield 68/60/71/48/63 | Arvin 68/59/72/49/63 | Taft 67/60/71/49/63 | |
| Lamont 68/56/72/47/63 | Pixley 67/56/67/43/63 | Tulare 65/56/67/43/62 | |
| Woodlake 66/56/67/42/64 | Hanford 66/56/67/42/64 | Orosi 65/56/66/42/64 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Chance of showers 42/65 |
Sunday
Slight chance of showers 41/62 |
Monday
Mostly clear 38/63 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 39/68 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 40/71 |
Two Week Outlook: March 7 through April 2: This model is persistent in showing a strong ridge of upper level high pressure building over and off the west coast. This is a dry pattern. Temperatures under this regime will range above seasonal values.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety-day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH at times today, increasing to 15 to 25 MPH tonight through Thursday morning with stronger gusts possible in Kern County and along the west side. Winds later Thursday afternoon will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, decreasing to 5 to 15 MPH Friday night then 10 to 20 MPH again Saturday with lighter winds Sunday and Monday.
Rain: The second big surge of moisture is currently moving into the south valley, mainly from Kings and Tulare Counties southward to Kern County. Further north, periods of showers are occurring. This system appears to want to come in batches. The latest is now moving into our region. We should see another batch this afternoon, lasting through tonight, with yet another surge late tonight and Thursday morning. The rain will taper off to showers Thursday afternoon and night with a chance of showers lingering in the south valley into Friday morning. Conditions will become partly cloudy Friday afternoon and night. A new low will move inland through northern California Saturday into early Sunday with a chance of light showers, mainly north of Kern County. Dry weather will set up later Sunday and, if models hold, will last through all of next week.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing for the foreseeable future.
Lows Tonight: All locations will be above 32 degrees.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 50s
Humidity: Visalia: 75%/100% Bakersfield: 65%/90%
Actual Humidity March 19, 2018: Delano, 91%/37%, Porterville, 98%/33%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0% tomorrow 0% Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 0%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days March 19, 2018: Stratford .81, Parlier .61, Blackwell .82 Lindcove .66, Arvin .74, Orange Cove .66, Porterville .68, Delano .73, Madera Two .63. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 57, Blackwell 59, Lindcove, 59, Arvin, 60, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 59, Delano 58, Madera Two 56
Record Temperatures: 89/33. Average Temperatures: 68/44
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1871, -480 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for March so far, 54.1 -0.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 3.82 season. or -5.22. Month to Date: 1.92
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 2.41, or -2.76, Month to Date: .1.09
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 952, Parlier, 977, Arvin, 851, Shafter, 1007, Stratford, 965, Madera two, 1480, Lindcove, 1105, Porterville, 1433. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:01 am Sunset: 7:12 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:07
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 59 / 50 / 0.12 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 63 / 53 / 0.03 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 64 / 49 / 0.01 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 67 / 50 / 0.07 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 74 / 52 / T /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 64 / 50 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1654 / 66 / 53 / 0.03 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 68 / 45 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 70 / 52 / 0.01 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 58 / 40 / 0.10 /
Rainfall Totals:
STOCKTON 0.10 6.64 58 18.39 159 11.53 14.06
MODESTO 0.10 5.12 49 14.35 136 10.54 13.11
MERCED 0.06 4.46 45 13.76 138 9.96 12.50
MADERA 0.12 4.21 44 13.19 137 9.66 12.02
FRESNO 0.03 3.85 42 12.87 141 9.10 11.50
HANFORD 0.01 3.09 38 9.21 114 8.09 10.10
BAKERSFIELD T 2.41 46 7.29 140 5.20 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 5 7.81 200 3.91 5.18
SALINAS 0.52 4.84 46 15.00 142 10.59 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.25 5.41 50 14.63 135 10.85 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.19 3.36 29 16.22 139 11.69 13.95
Next Report: Wednesday, March 21/pm