March 22, 2018
Summary: The atmospheric river of air continues to pound central California this morning. Tulare and Kern Counties are receiving somewhat of a break from the precipitation as a rain shadow has developed with heavy downsloping occurring along the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains. Heavy precipitation continues up and down the Sierra Nevada. It’s possible another two to four inches of rain may be tallied from this morning through tonight.
A cold front which is oriented north to south is moving across the valley this morning from west to east. Along the front, heavy rain is occurring with a few embedded thunderstorms possible. The front will move into the Sierra Nevada by late morning, allowing colder and very unstable air behind the front this afternoon and tonight. The storm prediction center has its eye on the valley this afternoon and evening as there will be a small chance of severe thunderstorms, mainly north of Kern County. There is some suggestion a few of these storms could even rotate, creating a funnel or two over the valley floor. At the very least, thunderstorms would really put down a lot of rain in a short period of time.
The showers will begin to taper off later tonight with only a small chance of a few lingering showers, mainly in Kern County, for a time Friday morning. Dry weather will return Friday afternoon through Friday night.
A low pressure system, the same one associated with the atmospheric river of air, will move southeastward through northern and central California Saturday through Sunday for a chance of light showers, but that’s all. Upper level high pressure will begin to fill in from the west Monday, starting up a prolonged period of dry weather which will last through all of next week and more than likely beyond. Temperatures by midweek will begin to nudge up to above average with very pleasant weather thereafter. By the way, rainfall amounts from the current storm are ranging from around three quarters of an inch to an inch and half on the valley floor. More is discussed in the rainfall summary below.
Forecast: Rain this morning from Fresno County northward with locally heavy showers elsewhere. Showers this afternoon through tonight. There will be a chance of locally heavy thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A small chance of lingering showers for a time Friday morning, mainly in Kern County. Mostly to partly cloudy Friday afternoon and Friday night. Mostly cloudy Saturday through Sunday with a chance of light showers, mainly north of Kern County. Partly cloudy Sunday night. Mostly clear Monday through Thursday with a warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 66/41/63/40/63 | Reedley 67/43/63/40/63 | Dinuba 66/41/62/40/62 | |
| Porterville 70/41/63/40/64 | Lindsay 69/41/63/41/63 | Delano 71/46/62/42/64 | |
| Bakersfield 73/48/64/43/64 | Arvin 73/46/62/43/64 | Taft 71/50/64/46/64 | |
| Lamont 71/44/63/43/64 | Pixley 70/42/63/40/62 | Tulare 66/41/62/40/62 | |
| Woodlake 68/43/62/40/63 | Hanford 68/42/63/40/63 | Orosi 68/42/62/40/62 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Chance of showers 39/60 |
Monday
Mostly clear 34/61 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 37/66 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 43/71 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 47/77 |
Two Week Outlook: March 9 through April 4: This model is persistent in showing a strong ridge of upper level high pressure building over and off the west coast. This is a dry pattern. Temperatures under this regime will range above seasonal values.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety-day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be generally out of the southeast at 15 to 25 MPH this morning, becoming out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH later this afternoon and tonight. Winds Friday will be generally light then will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH Saturday and Sunday with stronger gusts.
Rain: The following are storm totals ending at midnight this morning. Stratford .84, Parlier .90, Blackwell 1.10, Arvin .76, Orange Cove 1.13, Porterville .80, Delano .75, Madera 1,40, Bakersfield .93, Fresno 1.00. Some locations have recorded considerably more than these readings as period of rain, especially over the northern half of the valley, have been occurring all night.
Currently a north to south oriented cold front is moving eastward through the valley. Doppler radar shows a narrow band of heavy rain moving into the Sierra Nevada over the next few hours. This afternoon could be quite interesting as the storm prediction center has its eye on the valley for possible thunderstorm development. A few storms could become severe. The main impact of these storms, if they occur, would be to put down heavy amounts of rain, possibly with local flooding.
The showers will begin to taper off later tonight with only a small chance of a few lingering showers later Friday morning, mainly in Kern County. Otherwise, expect dry conditions Friday and Friday night. A low pressure system currently centered off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will move southeastward through central California Saturday through Sunday with a small chance of showers.
Dry weather will return Sunday night and should continue through all of next week and quite possibly all the way into early April.
Frost: A low pressure system which will move across the valley over the weekend has a pool of cold air associated with it. Monday and Tuesday of next week could see widespread mid to upper 30s with a chance of colder locations dipping into the lower 30s. I don’t consider this a damaging situation, but just a couple of nights of cold weather we would typically see during the month of March.
For Wednesday and beyond, all locations will be above freezing as a rapid warming trend begins at mid week.
Lows Tonight: All locations will be above 32 degrees.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 50s Kern: Mid to upper 50s
Humidity: Visalia: 45%/95% Bakersfield: 45%/85%
Actual Humidity March 20, 2018: Delano, 92%/34%, Porterville, 97%/44%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0% tomorrow 0% Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 0%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days March 20, 2018: Stratford .82, Parlier .58, Blackwell .77 Lindcove .60, Arvin .73, Orange Cove .63, Porterville .65, Delano .68, Madera Two .58. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 56, Blackwell 58, Lindcove, 59, Arvin, 60, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 58, Delano 58, Madera Two 56
Record Temperatures: 88/30. Average Temperatures: 68/44
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1879, -481 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for March so far, 54.3 -0.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 4.14 season. or -4.96. Month to Date: 2.24
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 2.52, or -2.68, Month to Date: .1.20
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 952, Parlier, 977, Arvin, 851, Shafter, 1007, Stratford, 965, Madera two, 1480, Lindcove, 1105, Porterville, 1433. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:59 am Sunset: 7:13 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:11
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 64 / 54 / 0.46 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 64 / 53 / 0.58 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 64 / 51 / 0.48 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 64 / 51 / 0.44 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 67 / 54 / 0.89 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 64 / 52 / 0.43 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1659 / 62 / 51 / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 64 / 52 / 0.36 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 62 / 51 / M /
Rainfall Totals:
STOCKTON 0.17 6.94 60 18.95 164 11.59 14.06
MODESTO 0.14 5.27 50 14.53 137 10.60 13.11
MERCED 0.12 4.64 46 13.84 138 10.00 12.50
MADERA 0.30 4.67 48 13.20 136 9.69 12.02
FRESNO 0.29 4.43 48 12.91 141 9.16 11.50
HANFORD 0.26 3.57 44 9.22 113 8.13 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.78 3.30 63 7.32 140 5.24 6.47
BISHOP T 0.20 5 7.89 201 3.92 5.18
SALINAS 0.02 4.91 46 15.06 141 10.66 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.85 6.41 59 14.68 134 10.92 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.85 4.42 38 16.63 141 11.76 13.95
Next Report: Thursday, March 22/pm