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Forecast

March 23, 2018/report

March 23, 2018

Summary: The storm of the season went out with a bang yesterday afternoon as heavy thunderstorms developed with very heavy rain in some areas.  There are a few locations that received almost three inches of rain yesterday alone and as these storms moved into the foothills, flash flooding occurred in various locations from Mariposa County down to Tulare County.  That was yesterday.  Now we find today that the atmospheric river of air is now history.  There is a considerable amount of cloud cover over the eastern and southern flanks of the valley this morning based at between 3,000 and 4,000 feet.

 

We now turn our attention to a cold low pressure system off the coast of the Pacific Northwest.  Believe it or not, this storm was the catalyst to suck up subtropical air into California the past few days.  This low will now move southeastward and spread light precipitation over northern and possibly central California, especially from Fresno County north.  Snow levels will drop like a rock with this system from over 8,000 feet yesterday to around 3,000 feet Sunday.

 

As the much colder air takes over, temperatures may very well drop into the mid to upper 30s overnight Monday and Tuesday mornings with possibly low 30s in river bottom and similar locations.  But, nothing damaging is expected.

 

There will be a weak wave of low pressure moving through Nevada Monday which may result in some showers over the Sierra Nevada.  This system will maintain below average temperatures through Tuesday.  However, beginning Wednesday, a big warm up is in store as a strong ridge of upper level high pressure moves eastward into the western U.S. via the eastern Pacific Ocean.  In fact, models push temperatures to the 80 degree mark by Friday with above average temperatures next weekend and through the following week.

 

Forecast: Mostly to partly cloudy this morning. Partly cloudy this afternoon through Saturday morning.  Mostly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday with a small chance of light showers, especially from Fresno County north.  Partly cloudy Sunday night through Monday.  Mostly clear Monday night and on through Friday with a warming trend.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 62/40/63/38/62 Reedley 63/41/63/37/62 Dinuba 63/41/63/38/61
Porterville 63/40/63/37/61 Lindsay 60/39/63/37/62 Delano 62/42/64/39/61
Bakersfield 62/45/65/43/61 Arvin 61/43/65/43/61 Taft 63/45/65/45/60
Lamont 62/42/65/40/61 Pixley 63/40/63/37/62 Tulare 62/39/62/36/62
Woodlake 63/39/63/37/61 Hanford 62/40/63/38/62 Orosi 63/39/63/37/62

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Partly cloudy

36/61

Tuesday

Mostly clear

38/62

Wednesday

Mostly clear

41/70

Thursday

Mostly clear

45/75

Friday

Mostly clear

49/78

 

Two Week Outlook:  March 30 through April 5:  This model is persistent in showing a strong ridge of upper level high pressure building over and off the west coast.  This is a dry pattern.  Temperatures under this regime will range above seasonal values.

 

March:  Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month.  So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.

 

March, April, May:  The ninety-day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome.  It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.

 

Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest today and tonight at 5 to 10 MPH.  winds Saturday afternoon through Monday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH at times with locally stronger gusts.

 

Rain:  The following are storm totals from Madera County southward through Kern County.  Stratford .94, Parlier 1.75, Blackwell 1.19, Arvin 1.03, Porterville 1.45, Delano 1.03, and Madera 2.29.  totals over the Sierra Nevada were incredible.  As much as 10 to 12 inches of rain were recorded in the wet spots over the higher elevations.  A few locations yesterday recorded more than 6 inches of precipitation, much of it falling as thunderstorms moved over the valley and into the foothills.  Believe it or not, today through Saturday morning will be dry.  The risk of light showers,  mainly from Fresno northward, will begin Saturday afternoon and last through Sunday.

 

Another weather system will  move through the Great Basin on Monday, clipping the Sierra Nevada with a chance of showers, but for now it appears the valley will remain dry.

 

From Tuesday on, we will see very pleasant spring weather and conditions will be dry from Monday night through the remainder of the week and, if models are correct, all of next week, as well.

 

Frost:  It still appears the air mass associated with a low off the Oregon coast which will  move through over the weekend will cause temperatures to dip into the mid to upper 30s Monday and Tuesday mornings.  There is a chance of low 30s in the coldest low lying river bottom and like locations.  Rapid warming will begin Wednesday with well above average temperatures beginning Thursday and continuing through next weekend with some locations possibly reaching the 80 degree mark.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s

Humidity: Visalia: 40%/95%  Bakersfield: 45%/90%

Actual Humidity March 21, 2018: Delano, 92%/83%, Porterville, 97%/85%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%  tomorrow: 30%  Bakersfield: Today: 30% tomorrow: 50%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days March 21, 2018: Stratford .64, Parlier .54, Blackwell .68 Lindcove .52, Arvin .66, Orange Cove .57, Porterville .57, Delano .60, Madera Two .55.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 55, Blackwell 58, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 61, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 58, Delano 57, Madera Two 56

Record Temperatures: 83/30. Average Temperatures: 69/44

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1886, -483 Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for March so far, 54.4 -0.4

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since October 1, 2017  Fresno: 5.02 season. or -4.14.  Month to Date: 3.12

Since October 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.45, or -1.73,  Month to Date: .2.13

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 952, Parlier, 977, Arvin, 851, Shafter, 1007, Stratford, 965, Madera two, 1480, Lindcove, 1105, Porterville, 1433.  Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:58 am  Sunset: 7:13 pm. Hours of Daylight:  12:12

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  69 /  59 / 1.54 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  68 /  59 / 1.21 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  68 /  59 / 0.84 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  69 /  59 / 0.83 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  74 /  61 / 0.23 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  68 /  57 / 0.88 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1700 /  65 /  58 / 1.12 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  70 /  57 / 0.56 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1654 /  73 /  58 / 0.05 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  65 /  52 / 0.38 /

 

Rainfall Totals:

STOCKTON                      0.27    7.25    62   19.56   168    11.65    14.06

MODESTO                       0.15    5.55    52   15.20   143    10.65    13.11

MERCED                           M    4.91    49   14.27   142    10.05    12.50

MADERA                        0.65    6.23    64   13.41   138     9.73    12.02

FRESNO                        0.62    5.64    61   12.96   141     9.22    11.50

HANFORD                       0.42    4.41    54    9.36   115     8.16    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.08    3.53    67    7.36   140     5.27     6.47

BISHOP                        0.61    0.81    21    7.89   201     3.93     5.18

SALINAS                       0.22    5.18    48   15.33   143    10.73    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   1.91    9.42    86   14.84   135    10.98    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.81    5.45    46   16.68   141    11.83    13.95
 

Next Report: Friday, March 23/pm