March 24, 2018
Summary: There is still a great deal of cloudiness lingering along the east side and over the south valley which will eventually be overtaken by increasing cloudiness this afternoon. There is a rather beleaguered looking cold front now moving over the northern portion of the San Joaquin Valley. The front will move into our region this afternoon with a slight chance of showers from mainly Fresno County north.
A cold low pressure system which has been parked off the Oregon coast the past few days is finally on the move and will head into northern and central California tonight and Sunday morning. Models portray this system as moisture starved, but the dynamics of this trough may be strong enough to sustain light showers, mainly north of Kern County, tonight and Sunday morning. The low will slide into southern California Sunday night and Monday, creating a brief northerly flow over California. This will keep temperatures below average through Tuesday with mid to upper 30s possible Monday and Tuesday mornings.
Once we begin to push the Tuesday night/Wednesday time frame, strong upper level high pressure will be building in from the eastern Pacific Ocean. This will drive temperatures to near 70 Wednesday and near 80 possibly as early as Thursday with possible low 80s Friday and over the weekend. Medium range models for the following week all point to dry weather, but not quite as warm.
Forecast: partly cloudy this morning. Increasing cloudiness later this afternoon. A chance of scattered light showers tonight and Sunday morning. Partly cloudy Sunday afternoon and night. Becoming mostly clear Monday and on through Saturday with a warming trend beginning a mid week.
Short Term:
| Madera 62/38/62/35/63 | Reedley 62/39/62/36/62 | Dinuba 61/38/62/34/63 | |
| Porterville 64/40/62/36/62 | Lindsay 63/39/62/35/63 | Delano 64/41/61/38/62 | |
| Bakersfield 64/43/61/40/61 | Arvin 63/42/61/38/62 | Taft 65/45/61/44/62 | |
| Lamont 64/42/61/38/62 | Pixley 63/39/62/35/63 | Tulare 61/39/62/34/63 | |
| Woodlake 63/40/62/36/63 | Hanford 63/38/62/36/63 | Orosi 62/40/62/36/63 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 36/66 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 42/71 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 47/78 |
Friday
Mostly clear 51/80 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 53/83 |
Two Week Outlook: March 31 through April 6: A strong ridge of upper level high pressure continues to be depicted building over and off the west coast. Under this pattern, conditions will be dry with above average temperatures.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety-day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be out of the northwest later this afternoon at 10 to 20 MPH at times through tonight, decreasing Sunday through Monday to 5 to 15 MPH. expect light winds Monday night and Tuesday.
Rain: A weak cold front is draped across the northern San Joaquin Valley this morning with a few scattered light showers from Stockton and Modesto southwestward to near Salinas. This anemic front will move down the valley later today with a slight chance of showers from mainly Fresno County northward. The parent low, which has been off the Oregon coast the past few days will open up into a trough, giving us enough instability for a chance of scattered light showers tonight and Sunday morning. Rainfall amounts, where it does actually rain, should be less than .10.
Dry weather will return later Sunday afternoon with another weak impulse moving southward just to our east Monday. There will be no chance of showers for the valley with this one. For Tuesday and beyond, dry conditions can be expected for at least the next week and a half to possibly two weeks.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. Once we get into Monday and Tuesday mornings, mid to upper 30s will be the general rule, at least in areas which are relatively clear of cloud cover. There is a slight chance on those mornings of low 30s in river bottom and like locations while other areas may enjoy some residual cloud cover may see temperatures in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. the best chance of the latter scenario will be in Kern and Tulare Counties where upsloping is more common.
We will begin a period of fine spring weather Wednesday as rapid warming occurs. As early as Thursday we could be approaching the 80 degree mark and believe it or not possibly the low to mid 80s from Friday through next weekend.
Longer term, there’s no pattern suggesting a particularly cold air mass encompassing the area.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to lower 40s Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s
Humidity: Visalia 45%/95% Bakersfield 40%/85%
Actual Humidity March 22, 2018: Delano, 91%/58%, Porterville, 96%/65%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50% tomorrow 30% Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days March 22, 2018: Stratford .57, Parlier .46, Blackwell .58 Lindcove .47, Arvin .68, Orange Cove .47, Porterville .50, Delano .56, Madera Two .50. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 56, Blackwell 58, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 61, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 58, Delano 57, Madera Two 56
Record Temperatures: 85/34. Average Temperatures: 69/44
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1891, -487 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for March so far, 54.7 -0.3
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.08 season. or -3.14. Month to Date: 4.18
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.73, or -1.73, Month to Date: 1.54
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:56 am Sunset: 7:14 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:15
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 61 / 40 / 0.30 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 63 / 43 / 0.44 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 62 / 43 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 62 / 39 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 61 / 49 / 0.20 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 61 / 42 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 61 / 46 / 0.15 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1658 / 58 / 45 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 62 / 42 / M /
Rainfall Totals:
STOCKTON 0.00 7.25 62 19.56 167 11.71 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 5.55 52 15.20 142 10.71 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.35 53 14.27 141 10.10 12.50
MADERA 0.00 6.51 67 13.41 137 9.76 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.08 66 12.96 140 9.28 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.41 54 9.36 114 8.20 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.73 70 7.36 139 5.31 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.82 21 7.89 200 3.95 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.18 48 15.33 142 10.79 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.42 85 14.84 134 11.05 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 5.60 47 16.68 140 11.90 13.95
Next Report: Saturday, March 24/pm