March 30, 2018
Summary: The upper high which has been located just to our west this week will move directly overhead today and tonight. This will drive temperatures into the mid 80s in many locations this afternoon. The air aloft is also quite warm as the freezing level is now at nearly 13,000 feet, indicating a warm bubble of subsiding air is over California. Over the eastern Pacific Ocean off shore, satellite imagery is indicating there are variable amounts of mid and high level clouds associated with a weak, dry, and fragmented low pressure system off the southern California coast. This little feature will move inland over the weekend, marginally lowering temperatures. Those clouds will be overhead from time to time and may blunt temperatures slightly.
Upper level high pressure will rebound beginning Monday through Wednesday with near 80 degree warmth possible. The high will begin to break down Thursday, allowing what appears to be a strong low pressure system off the northern California coast to move in Friday and Saturday. Some models are also picking up on the possibility of an atmospheric river of air becoming entrained within this system from the subtropics. For now, it looks like northern California will be the direct target with precipitation down to at least Fresno County and a fairly high risk of lighter showers in the south valley. Snow levels, as you might anticipate, will be quite high. But, with a possible atmospheric river of air, precipitation might be quite heavy along the Sierra Nevada, especially from Kings Canyon northward.
Forecast: Mostly clear but with occasional high clouds today and tonight. Variable mid and high level clouds will be visible Saturday through Sunday. Mostly clear to possibly occasionally partly cloudy Monday through Thursday. Increasing cloudiness Thursday night with an increasing chance of rain Friday, especially from Fresno County northward.
Short Term:
| Madera 84/51/84/52/83 | Reedley 84/52/83/53/83 | Dinuba 83/51/83/52/84 | |
| Porterville 85/51/84/53/82 | Lindsay 85/52/85/54/82 | Delano 85/55/84/56/82 | |
| Bakersfield 86/58/84/59/83 | Arvin 86/54/85/55/83 | Taft 85/59/84/60/82 | |
| Lamont 86/54/85/55/82 | Pixley 84/54/84/54/84 | Tulare 83/52/84/53/84 | |
| Woodlake 85/52/84/53/83 | Hanford 85/54/84/54/84 | Orosi 83/51/84/53/83 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Partly cloudy 54/79 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 53/78 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 53/80 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 53/80 |
Friday
Chance of rain 56/79 |
Two Week Outlook: April 6 through April 12: This model is suggesting a rather strong trough of low pressure with widespread precipitation will be over the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Fresno County seems to be the dividing line between wet weather to the north and dry weather to the south. Temperatures will continue to be at least marginally above average. We’ll see what trends develop.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety-day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 12 MPH later mornings and afternoons and less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions nights and early mornings through Monday.
Rain: Expect dry weather through at least Thursday night. There is a definite trend on models showing a strong low off the northern California coast Friday and Saturday. There is also a suggestion on some models that an atmospheric river of air from the subtropics will move northeastward into the low. This would result in heavy amounts of precipitation over northern
California. Depending on how this sets up, at least the northern half of the valley could get soaked with a chance of precipitation further south. This is the fourth day in a row models have pointed in this direction, so my confidence level is beginning to increase that a major storm event will occur over the northern half of the state Friday into Saturday with lesser amounts of precipitation further south. After this system goes through, the pattern is dry again for several days.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s
Humidity: Visalia: 35%/95% Bakersfield: 30%/80%
Actual Humidity March 28, 2018: Delano, 84%/27%, Porterville, 96%/34%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80% tomorrow 70% Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days March 28, 2018: Stratford 1.04, Parlier .88, Blackwell .92 Lindcove .79, Arvin .88, Orange Cove .93, Porterville .82, Delano .94, Madera Two .91. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 58, Blackwell 58, Lindcove, 60, Arvin, 61, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 59, Delano 59, Madera Two 57
Record Temperatures: 87/32. Average Temperatures: 70/45
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1958, -471 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for March so far, 54.5 -0.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.09 season. or -3.48. Month to Date: 4.19
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.73, or -1.75, Month to Date: 2.41
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:48 am Sunset: 7:20 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:27
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 80 / 49 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 81 / 51 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 82 / 47 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 82 / 46 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 82 / 51 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 79 / 48 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1655 / 79 / 49 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 82 / 47 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1653 / 79 / 55 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 80 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall Totals:
STOCKTON 0.00 7.37 61 19.82 164 12.06 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 5.78 52 15.30 139 11.02 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.66 54 14.63 140 10.43 12.50
MADERA 0.00 6.51 65 13.70 137 10.01 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.09 63 13.57 141 9.62 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.41 52 9.62 114 8.45 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.73 68 7.41 134 5.51 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.82 20 7.89 196 4.03 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.29 47 15.52 139 11.15 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.42 83 15.01 132 11.39 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 5.60 45 16.92 137 12.31 13.95
Next Report: Friday, March 30/pm